It’s hard to imagine that either of the elderly, cognitively-declining candidates for president— each of whom has refused to participate in primary forums— will debate this year. Each, though, will be careful to try to blame the other. Yesterday, Erin Doherty noted that "The future of presidential debates has never been more uncertain. They’ve been looked forward to by millions of voters— if not quite de rigueur— since the 1960 election (Kennedy v Nixon). “There have been general election debates during every presidential cycle since 1976, but the debates' status as a hallmark of the election process may be in trouble. ‘I’m afraid we may be to a point where we're going to see the demise of our presidential debates,’ said Mitchell McKinney, professor of political communication at the University of Akron in Ohio. Three general election presidential debates have been scheduled for 2024, but it's not clear whether they will happen.”
She pointed out that the RNC— which is controlled by Trump— has already announced that the GOP nominee can't participate in debates hosted and organized by the independent Commission on Presidential Debates. And Biden has been mum on the subject.
"I think that there is the greatest chance that we've had since debates resumed ... to not have debates featured as part of our general election campaign," McKinney said.
Some Biden campaign staffers are also still upset over the 2020 election debates, when the Commission on Presidential Debates allowed the Trump campaign to flout some of its rules over debate protocols and COVID-19 precautions.
…There were no debates from 1960 to 1976, but there have been at least two debates during every cycle since they resumed.
Debates bring the risk of attacks from opponents or a gaffe or stumble, which for a front-runner could do more harm than good.
"When you're 40 points up ... why would I let these people take shots at me?" Trump said over the summer.
While his GOP rivals have scrapped on stage, Trump has sat for counterprogramming events that featured friendlier hosts and more forgiving audiences.
Trump cruised to victory at the Iowa caucuses, where most voters said they didn't care if he participated in a primary debate, and he continues to dominate primary polling.
... The proliferation of other platforms, including social media, has made it easier for candidates to skip the debates and still get in front of voters on the candidates' own terms.
During the 2020 presidential election, one of the three planned general election debates was canceled after Trump refused to participate in a virtual format due to COVID-19. The candidates instead sat for competing town halls.
"The substitute is candidates able to maneuver their own political program, political show," McKinney said.
"Everyone can go to their own person's town hall and cheer on their own person," he said.