Which conservative Democrats would actually vote to keep the speaker's gavel in Kevin McCarthy's hand? People in DC think they know who— and we’ll all probably find out soon. I would guess the organizer of the effort is New Jersey reactionary Josh Gottheimer. And he’s probably doing it with Hakeem Jeffries’ (at least) tacit approval. In fact, Jeffries’ could even be discussing having his whole caucus jump into the rescue plan— before someone explains what a terrible idea that is to him! In any case, Jeffries wouldn't be complicit in this without a nod-- or a shove-- from the White House.
Yesterday, Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu spilled the beans on the behind the scenes chatter. “Biden” and McCarthy are nearing a compromise deal that is going to piss the HELL out of the Freedom Caucus extremists— and it’s likely that one or more of them will introduce a vacate the chair motion— probably Bob Good (R-VA) who hates McCarthy with a passion, but it could be any of them. Ferris and Wu wrote that if a last second compromise to prevent default sparks “a conservative rebellion aimed at ending his speakership… some Democrats have a plan to spare him.” Some of the right-of-center Dems who fall in behind Gottheimer have “quietly reassured its House GOP counterparts [Bryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Cole] that it can help protect McCarthy’s gavel if his right flank revolts over a debt agreement, according to two people familiar with the discussions. If conservatives responded to a McCarthy-Biden deal by forcing a full House vote on ousting the California Republican, Democrats say they have enough members to help block it— keeping him in power. ‘We’ll protect him if he does the right thing,’ said one of the House Democrats involved in the talks, who requested anonymity because of the ongoing debt negotiations. That Democrat added that McCarthy himself has been briefed on the discussions.”
You can probably imagine how much consternation that caused on Capitol Hill yesterday. Ferris and Wu reported that it’s a polarizing strategy for those conservative Dems “to entertain in private with other Democrats, let alone admit to planning to deploy. And senior Republicans dismiss the likelihood the gambit would come to pass. That’s because it’s not clear that [far right Republicans] would try to depose the speaker even if he edges away from the position he’s staked out on the debt limit— and should they try to, Republicans from McCarthy’s camp on down insist there can be no Democratic bailout. ‘The Speaker has never heard of this garbage, has zero interest in it, and thinks Democrats would be better off focusing on doing the jobs they were elected to do,’ McCarthy spokesperson Mark Bednar said in a statement.” That counts as consternation, right?
[I]t’s potential insurance for McCarthy— and a sign of the growing sense of desperation on the Hill— as the White House and congressional leaders race toward a deal to avert an economy-rattling debt crisis in the coming weeks. Those who revealed the conversations on condition of anonymity declined to name who’s leading them, but chatter about the protect-McCarthy idea is growing across the Democratic caucus.
And it’s perhaps loudest in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus [Gottheimer and Fitzpatrick].
Democrats in the Problem Solvers, which has a reputation for attempting to back-channel during high-level talks, are specifically looking to counterbalance the influence of the roughly 40 ultraconservative Republicans in the Freedom Caucus with their own members. The group includes 32 Democrats; not all of them are involved in the talks about backing McCarthy on a so-called “motion to vacate” the speakership, but their numbers are nearly enough to neuter the threat from the right.
Members of the Problem Solvers have privately discussed the idea for months, though conversations have become less theoretical as debt talks advanced in recent days, according to both people involved in the conversations.
Even outside of that moderate group, however, senior Democrats are also floating the protect-McCarthy idea— even raising it to party leaders, according to three other people familiar with those conversations. And they said some Democrats have suggested to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries that he use it as leverage over the speaker in the debt negotiations.
Jeffries insisted that any game-planning for a potential GOP move to topple McCarthy should play no part in the debt debate. “No, I don’t think that the two are connected at all,” he said in a brief interview.
And Republicans are already rejecting the notion of a Democratic salvage mission for McCarthy should he and Biden ink a pact that alienates conservatives.
“What I’ve said over and over in the last few days is that the votes for this are going to come from the middle, … which then raises the obvious question, the motion to vacate,” said Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH), who chairs the centrist New Democrat Coalition.
Kuster recommended a party conversation over how to handle the possibility. If Democrats help the right vent its fury by yanking McCarthy’s gavel, she added, “Then what? You get [Majority Leader Steve] Scalise. The politics don’t really change.”
Like Kuster, other Democrats said they weren’t ruling out aiding McCarthy to protect a future deal.
“I would vote to do what’s best for this country and I’ll leave it at that,” Rep. Lou Correa (Blue Dog-CA) said.
“That’s a question that should be on a philosophy exam. And the answer is, I don’t know. Depends on the circumstances,” said swing-seat Rep. Susan Wild (New Dem-PA).
…Some Democrats are openly disinterested in the prospect.
“That’s so far down the line right now, in terms of what might actually happen. At the end of the day, the solution is probably going to come from the Senate when we get really close to defaulting,” Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) said. Still, she added of McCarthy: “I’m not sure who else could run that conference.”
And Democratic centrists who want to signal they’d back McCarthy, if he agrees to a debt plan they agree with, insisted there would be enough votes on their side to help the speaker stay in power.
“If he showed some courage to bring something to the floor that would result in a motion to vacate, we would be there to keep him in the seat,” said a second centrist involved in the internal discussions.
Even so, that Democrat acknowledged that a speaker propped up with the votes of his opponents would be committing “a slower suicide.”
“I don’t think McCarthy’s the kind of guy who wants this to be his kind of legacy.”
Jeffries is giving McCarthy a way to look big. He said he will oppose to the bitter end the Republican plan to force more people to get jobs in order to get food stamps. Well, McCarthy has said-- as the Freedom Caucus has demanded-- that no work, no rescue from default. McCarthy said yesterday it is a "red line" in the sand. So Jeffries will back down-- like he really cares-- and make McCarthy look like a big tough fighter for the Freedom Caucus' top demand. The whole thing is one choreographed dance.