Republicans in blue districts and swing districts have one thing they can count on— Hakeem Jeffries and the DCCC undercutting progressives and making sure uninspiring and unelectable candidates get the Democratic Party nominations in as many districts as they can, despite a record of dismal failure. There are good examples in California. Let’s look at 3 blue congressional districts— with, courtesy of the DCCC, Republican congressmembers, CA-13 (D+7 partisan lean), CA-22 (D+10 partisan lean) and CA-27 (D+8 partisan lean). They’re all districts a Democrat would be favored to win in— but all districts Republicans won last cycle because they didn’t run against Democrats, they ran against Republican-lite Democraps, respectively corrupt conservative state Rep. Adam Gray who was beaten by some random guy named John Duarte, corrupt conservative state Rep Rudy Salas who failed to defeat Congressman David Valadao, and conservative former state Rep and multiple-loser Christie Smith.
These are 3 incredibly shitty candidates who lost significantly blue districts, despite spending millions of dollars each. The DCCC spent & the House Majority PAC wasted $6,628,853 on Gray, $10,098,851 on Salas and… well, even the DCCC sensed what a hopeless loser Smith is and abandoned her after spending just $23,480. Hopefully she’ll never run for office again. Unfortunately Gray and Salas, who— as leaders of the Mod Squad— were abhorred as two of the worse and most corrupt members of the California legislature, are both running again… with DCCC encouragement. That’s why vulnerable Republicans don’t feel vulnerable. They count on the DCCC to give them weak opponents easy to defeat— and not just in California of course. NY-22, the Syracuse district, has a D+2 partisan lean and was an open seat last cycle. The DCCC was delighted with Republican-lite reject Francis Conole— and he lost to unimpressive Republican Brandon Williams. He outspent Williams $3 million to $900,000 and the DCCC and the House Majority PAC wasted $4,414,892 on Conole. The progressive in the race, Sarah Klee Hood, was brushed aside by the establishment. She’s going to run again this cycle.
Yesterday, writing for Punchbowl, Mica Soellner and Max Cohen reported that the 18 vulnerable Republicans in districts Biden won are preparing for a Democratic onslaught anyway— Republicans who had voted for McCarthy’s unpopular random note that takes from working families to help billionaire campaign donors.
“The GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents,” wrote Soellner and Cohen, “have already had to take several tough votes just four months into the new House Republican majority. They’ve delivered crucial support for a GOP proposal curbing transgender athletes’ rights, an education bill that leans into culture wars and an energy package that targets the Biden administration’s climate policies. And on Wednesday, all 18 vulnerable Republicans voted for the leadership’s debt-limit bill. The package calls for more stringent work requirements for federal assistance programs, slashes non-defense discretionary spending and blocks Biden’s student loan relief program.”
With a partisan immigration bill coming to the floor in May, GOP frontliners face another difficult choice: Help Speaker Kevin McCarthy pass legislation with a five-seat majority while getting hammered by Democrats, or risk getting ostracized by Republicans [and losing NRCC funding] for bucking the party line.
Yet there’s no sign of mass discontent from the Biden-district members.
“That’s always a concern,” said Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), when asked about feeling squeezed by leadership to take contentious votes.
In conversations with a dozen Biden-district Republicans, we found the endangered incumbents sticking right by leadership— much to the delight of House Democrats. Some are already prepping for the onslaught of Democratic campaign ads claiming they want to target popular federal programs including entitlements like Medicare and Social Security.
“I’ve spent a decade talking about Social Security and Medicare,” Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) said. “I have a district that’s had millions and millions spent on me and from people attacking me about these subjects.”
Schweikert barely scraped by last year, beating Democrat Jevin Hodge by a fraction of a point— 50.44% to 49.56%— even though the DCCC spent just $95,095 in the race, along with $1,720,471 from Pelosi’s House Majority PAC. Imagine what would have happened if they had spent even half the money they wasted on Salas on this winnable race in Arizona! Another Democrat who got no support last cycle— zero from the DCCC and zero from the House Majority PAC— was Ashley Ehasz, who took on Brian Fitzpatrick in the swingy Bucks County district north Philly. The partisan lean is D+9 and Fitzpatrick won with 54.9% of the vote, not because Ehasz is a crap candidate like Salas, Gray, Smith and Conole— she’s an excellent candidate— but because the DCCC ignored her race and ceded the seat to Fitzpatrick. Yesterday, Soellner and Cohen wrote that “Fitzpatrick (R-PA) said he believes in the social safety net ‘more than anything.’ Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) said it’s important for Republicans to protect ‘important programs like Social Security, Medicare, defense and the VA.’ McCarthy has pledged to leave Social Security and Medicare alone. But the Limit, Save, Grow Act could lead to a cut in funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrats are already pouncing on other potentially dramatic spending reductions across federal agencies. A House Majority Forward ad has begun running in New York saying Republicans want to ‘wildly slash’ funding for ‘education, clean air and water and even cancer research.’”
“Instead of standing up to the MAGA extremists running their party, vulnerable Republicans have enthusiastically embraced unpopular and dangerously extreme policies every single day they’ve been in office,” DCCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia said.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said GOP frontliners have been invited to the table to discuss every bill that Republicans have taken up so far. He also described vulnerable Republicans as “tough” lawmakers who know how to explain these issues to their constituents.
“What I find on any difficult issue, the most important thing a member can do is go back home and talk about it, and let their constituents know what we’re doing up here,” Scalise said. “Usually they don’t know all the details of what we’re doing up here. So it’s really on the members to educate their constituents.”
Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) all told us they plan to localize their reelection races. Bacon said the GOP agenda is in line with the concerns he hears from his district about the U.S.-Mexico border and inflation.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-AZ) office went further, hitting Democrats for seeking to create a “false, dishonest narrative” around him and other members over his stances on entitlements.
As we’ve reported before, the 18 Biden-district Republicans are in a unique political situation. Many have successfully ran ahead of the top of the GOP ticket in past elections, but they’re still wary of creating any distance between themselves and former President Donald Trump in 2024.
Republicans are striking back with an ad of their own, trying to turn the tables on Democrats. It will work in their gerrymandered little bubbles, but among independent voters in the kinds of swing districts we’ve been talking about? See for yourself: