The Red Wall Is Crumbling— Can Democrats Step Up As Anything Besides The Lesser Evil? It’s Time

Time For Democrats To Learn That Voters Demand More Than Lip Service

"Get With The Program" by Nancy Ohanian

The New Jersey primary was uppermost in our minds Tuesday— and you can read about it here— but there were also 6 special elections that night. Not a single seat flipped— the 4 Republican seats were won by Republicans and the 2 Democratic seats were won by Democrats. But behind that top line there is a story worth reading about. Let’s look at Florida first, where there were 2 open red House seats (HD-03 in the Panhandle and HD-32, part of Brevard County) and one open red Senate seat (SD-19, most of Brevard County). In each, the GOP margins decreased. The Senate seat went from a 59% win for Trump to a 54% GOP win for Debbie Mayfield, who will replace Randy Fine. HD-03 went from a 77% Trump win to 67% for Nathan Boyles (R) Tuesday and HD-32 from a 59% Trump win to a 55% win for Republican Brian Hodgers.

There were two House races is one of the reddest states in the country— Oklahoma— one for a blue seat and one for a red seat. Although Trump took 39% last year in HD-71 (Tulsa), Republican Beverly Atteberry only took 15% Tuesday.  She was crushed by Amanda Clinton who won with 85%, which is 27 points better than Kamala did! And in the red district, HD-74 (suburban Tulsa), where Trump won 70% last year, the Republican, Kevin Norwood, only scored 65% on Tuesday.

You probably noticed the trend. The Republicans under-performed Trump and the Democrats out-performed Kamala in each race. The only exception was in Massachusetts’ HD-03 (Bristol) where Democrat Lisa Field won by a fraction of a point (50.2% to 49.8%) and where Republican Larry Quintal did better than 3 points better than Trump. So far this year, there have been 29 special elections and, on average, the Democratic candidates ran over 16 points better than Kamala did, whether in a red or blue district. 

The new Quinnipiac poll of registered voters might give some hints about why Republicans are under-performing. As you can above, voters don’t like Trump’s big ugly tax-and-spend bill and most voters think Medicaid spending should either increase (47%) or stay the same (40%). Just 10% want it to decrease. And it gets even worse for Team Red. Voters were asked about Trump's handling of 7 issues. Overall just 38% approve of the way he’s doing his job, as opposed to 54% who disapprove. On the specific issues:

• Immigration- 54% disapprove

• Deportations- 56% disapprove

• The economy- 56% disapprove

• Trade- 57% disapprove

• Universities- 54% disapprove

• Israel-Hamas conflict- 52% disapprove

• Ukraine-Russia war- 57% disapprove

• 57% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Musk, same as disapprove of DOGE

• 38% of voters think RFK Jr is doing a good job

• 37% think Pete Hegseth is doing a good job

• Worse yet, just 35% like the way JD Vance is doing his job

Voters disapprove of both Republicans (61%) and Democrats (70%) in Congress, although 40% of respondents think Democrats care about peoples’ needs as opposed to just 36% of Republicans. 79% of Republicans like the way the GOP is doing its job in Congress, while just 41% of Democrats think their own party is doing a good job. Asked if they would rather see Republicans in Congress do more to help Trump or to check him, 58% said check him and 38% said hep him. 

These special election results and polling numbers tell a story that Democrats would be foolish to ignore: working-class discontent is real, and while Republicans may be losing their grip, Democrats haven’t yet earned back the trust they squandered over decades of triangulation, corporate coziness and empty platitudes. If Democrats want to win back working-class voters— especially the disaffected ones who’ve tuned out or are flirting with the siren song of authoritarian populism— they need to stop managing decline and start offering a bold, material vision for a better future. That starts with embracing policies that make a concrete difference in people’s lives: raising wages, expanding unions, guaranteeing universal healthcare, taxing the ultra-rich and investing in communities hollowed out by decades of neoliberal neglect.

click the image to help Randy replace Trump ally Bryan Steil

Being the lesser evil candidate is not a long-term strategy. It’s not enough to say, “We’re not Trump.” Working families need to hear— and feel— that Democrats are on their side. That means rejecting austerity politics and abandoning the failed centrist idea that voters are won by promising less. It also means taking on the donor class that has treated the party like a private investment vehicle. Bernie and AOC— and incumbents like these— have shown there’s a hunger for candidates who say what they mean and back it up with action, not photo ops. If more Democrats embraced that style of politics, the party could start building a durable, multi-racial working-class coalition— one that isn't just cobbled together in a panic every four years but organized, energized and ready to govern year-round like it was before Bill Clinton and Rahm Emanuel and their ilk ruined it.

And finally, Democrats need to listen. Not just to consultants, donors and pollsters, but to people— especially in rural towns, factory communities and struggling urban and suburban neighborhoods that have been left behind. The old playbook of parachuting in during an election year, offering hollow rhetoric, and disappearing once ballots are counted won’t cut it. The DCCC and DSCC need to recruit and support candidates who radiate genuine, lived authenticity and working class credibility not corporate-aligned careerists. Show up early, stay late, deliver results. That’s how you rebuild trust. That’s how you win elections and build a long-term strategy. And that’s how you beat back the galloping authoritarianism that Republicans, increasingly out of step with a frustrated electorate, have made the centerpiece of their agenda.