Sure, Trump Lost The Plot— But The Democrats Sure Appear To Be Losing The Moment

Echoes In The Vacuum— The Opposition That Forgot To Oppose

As hard as it is to believe— it’s easier to believe Musk used Starlink or something to rig the election— last year “Trump,” wrote Christian Paz, “created a multiracial, working-class, Republican coalition. But just three and a half months into this presidency, that coalition looks like it’s falling apart… Across a range of polling averages and survey data, a similar picture is developing. Black, Latino, and young voters are turning sharply against him, reversing the gains he made throughout 2024 with traditionally Democratic voting groups.”

Paz asserted that “Trump was elected president in no small part because his campaign’s  unconventional wager paid off. His team bet that by focusing on the economy, inflation, and immigration— and by bringing that message to non-traditional media platforms and to places where Republicans typically struggle— they might activate a coalition of the disaffected. It worked in November. But now, his perceived inability to deliver on this seems to be fueling the great unraveling of this coalition. Trump’s overall job approval and personal favorability ratings have steadily dropped, largely because voters disapprove of and distrust his handling of the economy.” Voters expected him to focus on the economy and on inflation. He didn’t and “by March, the public mood began to turn. Views of the economy, and Trump’s stewardship of it, began to sour. Many voters, including those who joined his coalition in November, told pollsters that Trump was focusing on the wrong things. And when he announced his Liberation Day tariff scheme, jolting the stock market and threatening to raise prices, he seemed to lock in that sense.”

“That’s why, since the start of his term, Trump has seen the sharpest drops in his job approval ratings among those cohorts of voters who swung hard for him in November: Latino voters (a roughly 13 percent drop), Black voters (a 9 percent drop), young voters (-23 percent), independents (-18), and moderates (-15)… Low-engagement voters— those people who don’t pay a lot of attention to the news— swung hard for Trump in November. Now, they have similarly soured on Trump, swinging more than 30 points away from him since January... These trends suggest real dissatisfaction among the electorate in general, but specifically a sharp shift among the newest members of the Republican coalition. They took a bet on Trump, believed his promises about making life more affordable and moderating perceived policy excesses of the Biden years, and feel duped, betrayed, or let down by an administration that seems to be taking a much more radical approach to their campaign promises than they expected.”

[While talking to these voters, we heard a parallel emotion to their frustration with Trump. They’re second-guessing their 2024 vote choices, but they don’t necessarily say they would have swapped their vote for Kamala Harris. And they don’t say they plan to vote Democratic in the future— or declare that Republicans have completely lost them either.

…Republicans stand to give up the gains they made last year and lose an opportunity to build a lasting, winning coalition, aided by national trends that are making voters of color and young voters less likely to stand by the Democratic Party.

But particularly ahead of midterm elections, when Democrats will have anti-incumbent energy on their side, it’s possible for the party to misread Trump backlash as Democratic support. The same data that show soft Trump voters fleeing him also suggests that they aren’t running back to the Democrats. Congressional Democrats, for example, are still struggling with a toxic brand name: they’re running nearly even with Republicans in head-to-head polling, while one recent poll  found only about 30 percent of voters view the Democratic Party favorably. And the party in general still hasn’t fixed its communication problem, of reaching the kinds of voters Trump was able to reach last year.

Using some bullshit excuse to crap all over David Hogg (and his ideas about reforming a party that really needs a lot of reform) isn’t going to help them. Chuck Schumer— and Brian Schatz— helping pass Trump’s toxic agenda isn’t going to either. The unraveling of Trump’s coalition hasn’t sparked any serious course correction from the Democratic Party. If anything, the Democrats seem almost paralyzed— watching Trump bleed support from key demographics without offering a coherent program or even a convincing moral contrast. Rather than organizing to build a broad, multiracial working-class movement around economic justice, they’re clinging to institutional norms, procedural critiques and the fantasy that Trump will implode on his own. He might. And there could even be a blue wave… but that doesn’t mean voters are excited about the Democrats in any way other than… the lesser evil.

For many who have been turning on Trump, the problem isn’t just him— it’s the whole system. And Democrats, with their complicity in endless war funding, corporate giveaways and rhetorical sleight-of-hand about “historic investments,” come off less like an opposition party and more like enablers of decline. Black, Latino, and young voters aren't looking for a polite alternative to Trump’s chaos. They're looking for someone who gets why they’re angry— and who’s willing to do more than nod solemnly before heading to a fundraiser in the Hamptons. So, the unraveling continues— not just of Trump’s coalition, but of any sense that electoral politics offers a real avenue for change. This isn’t the realignment some Democrats hoped for. It’s a void. And into that void is creeping a dangerous apathy, one that’s fertile ground for the next demagogue, one slicker, younger, and less cartoonish than Trump. Unless something gives— unless the Democrats move towards the voices that recognizes the pain behind the polling cross-tabs— we’re not witnessing a victory. We’re watching the slow-motion collapse of both corporate parties.