Fun & Games At The Debate?
Tomorrow’s the first Republican debate and it’ll be happening without Trump, even though 66% of GOP voters say they want him to participate. I never voted for one and I can’t imagine I ever would— no matter how awful the Democrat alternative. That’s what third parties and abstentions are for. Meanwhile, though Reid Epstein reported that Democrats will be watching the festivities tomorrow “with bated breath in hopes that the Republican candidates embrace… Trump, defend him over his four criminal indictments, endorse national restrictions on abortion and— in the Democrats’ dream scenario— call for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Even without Trump onstage, Democrats see the Republican White House hopefuls as avatars for what they describe as a party in thrall to its extreme elements. Nobody is rooting for the debate to go off the rails more than Democrats praying for Biden’s re-election.” Off the rails? Like DeSantis wiping snot on Doug Burgum and Pence denouncing Ramaswampy as “unclean” or a “heathen?”
Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager: “All I want these people to do is say the same stuff they’ve been saying on the campaign trail on national TV. Please continue to double down on a six-week abortion ban. That would be wonderful. Thank you for doing this.”
Epstein noted that “Nothing would make Democrats happier than to see Republicans embrace a national ban on abortion during a nationally televised debate. When Trump held a CNN town hall event in May, the moment that had Democrats doing cartwheels afterward was not his continued denial of the 2020 election results, but when he took a victory lap for the Supreme Court’s decision.”
“I’d like to see a huge defense of President Trump and a full-on assault on reproductive freedom and abortion,” said Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey, a Democrat. “To me, that would be a gift that would keep on giving.”
In reality, many of the Republican candidates have tended to be more cagey about the issue.
Trump, at the CNN event, declined to call for a national abortion ban, and Gov. Ron DeSantis has also treaded carefully despite signing a six-week prohibition into law in Florida this year. But avoiding the subject may be tricky given former Vice President Mike Pence’s enthusiastic support for limiting abortion rights.
…Democrats expect nearly all of the candidates onstage to make explicit plays for [Trump’s] share of the Republican base— a move Democrats hope will focus attention on their own efforts to brand the entire GOP as the party of MAGA.
…”I’m a wrestling fan,” said Jaime Harrison, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. “I’m imagining a royal rumble on the debate stage, sort of a rehash of the debates in 2016 where they’re talking about each other’s mamas and all kinds of craziness.”
But one lesson that has been abundantly clear in the Trump era of politics is that no other Republican can get away with the type of outrage and public shamelessness that Mr. Trump regularly evinces.
…The biggest story about Trump is the one Biden won’t talk about— the four criminal indictments the former president is facing.
The problem for the Republicans running against Trump is that many of their voters agree with his belief that the cases against him are politically motivated.
Democrats on the sidelines have been left waiting, to little avail, for Trump’s GOP rivals to make a case to their voters that the legal problems are politically disqualifying.
“Normally candidates would be more than happy to point out if their opponent has been indicted four times!” Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota wrote in a text message. “They ARE running against him after all.”
…And for the cast of candidates who barely qualified for the Republican stage, hoping that a standout debate performance would propel them to relevance— a TV show, a future cabinet post or maybe a campaign for some other office-- a former presidential long shot had a piece of advice.
“Learn how to count to 200,” said Representative Eric Swalwell of California, who, many people may have forgotten, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. “Because that’s about the amount of seconds that you’re going to have to speak.”
But it won’t just be Democrats watching tomorrow with their own agendas. New Hampshire Governor and Trump hater, Chris Sununu, penned an OpEd for the NY Times yesterday that makes his perspective perfectly clear: If Republicans Narrow the Field, We Will Beat Trump. Imagine what New Hampshire MAGAts— and there are plenty of them— think of him today! They, in fact most Republicans, don’t want to beat Trump; they want him back in the White House. Sununu advices the other candidates to “go on offense, attack.” He also tells them that if they can’t “catch fire this fall… they need to step aside, because winnowing down the field of candidates is the single best chance to stop Trump. Too much is at stake for us to have wishful candidacies. While the other Republican candidates are running to save America, Trump is running to save himself. Candidates on the the debate stage should not be afraid to attack Trump. While it’s true that Trump has an iron grip on more than 30 percent of the electorate, the other 60 percent or so is open to moving forward with a new nominee. Trump’s shortcomings hardly need reciting. Tim Scott [3.0%], Ron DeSantis [14.9%] and Vivek Ramaswamy [7.0%]— candidates with compelling stories, records and polling— must show voters they are willing to take on Trump, show a spark, and not just defend him in absentia. Chris Christie [3.1%], who has done great work exposing Trump’s weaknesses, must broaden his message and show voters that he is more than the anti-Trump candidate.”
He warned that “If Trump is the Republican nominee for president in 2024, Republicans will lose up and down the ballot. According to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, nearly two-thirds of Americans say they would likely not support Trump in 2024— not even Jimmy Carter had re-election numbers that bleak. Every candidate with an (R) next to their name, from school board to the statehouse, will be left to answer for the electoral albatross at the top of the ticket. Instead of going on offense and offering an alternative to Joe Biden’s failing leadership, Republicans will continue to be consumed with responding to Trump’s constant grievances and lies, turning off every independent suburban voter in America. And Trump, ever the narcissist, will spend the entire campaign whining about his legal troubles and bilking his supporters of their retirement savings to pay for his lawyers.”
He claimed that “In Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states that will vote in the 2024 Republican primaries, Trump is struggling. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he is consistently polling in the low 40 percent range. The floor of his support may be high, but his ceiling is low.” Really? Let’s look at the most Republican polling firm’s most recent (last week) survey, Trafalgar— in Sununu’s own state:
Trump- 49.7%
DeSants- 10.7%
Ramaswamy- 10.4%
Christie- 9.1%
Tim Scott- 7.8%
Nikki Haley- 3.1%
Doug Burgum- 2.5%
Pence- 2.5%
Perry Johnson- 1.8%
Will Hurd- 0.8%
Așa Hutchinson- 0.6%
Ryan Binkley- 0.1%
Francis Suarez- 0.1%
Larry Elder- 0.1%
Undecided- 0.6%
Still, Sununu insists that in his state “more than half of Republican primary voters— our party’s most ardent voters— want someone not named Trump.” Technically true— but they sure don’t want any of these other clowns. Trump may be averaging 44.3%, but the others… well only one is even in double digits— DeSantis (13.3%) and he’s sinking fast. Christie’s in third place (8.0%) and most Republicans see him as a traitor and hate him. Still, Sununu— the son of a governor and White House chief of staff and brother of a congressman and senator— thinks he’s the most successful New Hampshire politician in history and is urging the candidatesto consolidate the field in order to compete in New Hampshire and beat Trump. “At a minimum,” he demands, “any candidate who does not make the stage for the first two debates must drop out. Anyone who is polling in the low single digits by Christmas must acknowledge that their efforts have fallen short. After the results from Iowa come in, it is paramount that the field must shrink, before the New Hampshire primary, to the top three or four… This fall, if their numbers have not improved, tough conversations between donors and their candidates need to happen. Media influencers and leading voices should amplify the Republican message that the longer these candidates stay in the race, the more they are helping Joe Biden— and Kamala Harris— get four more years. Provided the field shrinks by Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump loses. He will always have his die-hard base, but the majority is up for grabs. Candidates who seize on the opportunity and present a clear contrast to the former president will earn the votes.”
Wrong again. He thinks, for example, if Ramaswamy drops out, his followers will all go to the non-Trump candidates. That’s wishful thinking and it’s more likely that the Ramaswamy candidates will gravitate towards Trump, especially if Ramaswamy endorses him, as is almost certain.
He concludes that “It must be said that candidates who stay in this race when they have no viable path should be called out. They are auditioning for a Trump presidency cabinet that will simply never happen. And even if a Trump administration magically materialized, no public humiliation that great is worth the sacrifice. As governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state, I will do everything I can to help narrow the field. I plan to endorse and campaign for the best alternative to Trump. As of now, it’s anyone’s for the taking. For 20 years straight, the winner of the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary has gone on to secure the party’s nomination. Once the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire are presented a clear alternative to Trump, his path forward darkens, and the Republican Party’s future begins to take shape. The rest of the country needs to see not just that the emperor has no clothes, but that the Republican Party is able to refocus the conversation where it needs to be, on a nominee dedicated to saving America.”