Search

Statistics Porn-- New PVIs Day



Cook's PVIs tend to be a lagging indicator of partisan lean-- except on the day they come out. And that day is today. The report isn't behind a paywall but here are some salient facts... just in case they do put it out of reach for non-subscribers.

First of all they pointed out that 9 Republican members of Congress represent districts that Biden won and 7 Democrats represent districts that Señor Trumpanzee won. The Republicans, arranged by how strongly Biden beat Trump:

  • David Valadao (CA-21)- Biden margin- 10.9%

  • Young Kim (CA-39)- Biden margin- 10.1%

  • Mike Garcia (CA-25)- Biden margin- 10.1%

  • John Katko (NY-24)- Biden margin- 9.1%

  • Don Bacon (NE-02)- Biden margin- 6.5%

  • Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)- Biden margin- 5.8%

  • Beth Van Duyne (TX-24)- Biden margin- 5.4%

  • Maria Salazar (FL-27)- Biden margin- 3.2%

  • Michelle Steel (CA-48)- Biden margin- 1.5%


The Democrats, arranged by how strongly Señor T beat Biden:

  • Jared Golden (ME-02)- Trump margin- 7.4%

  • Ron Kind (WI-03)- Trump margin- 4.7%

  • Matt Cartwright (PA-08)- Trump margin- 4.4%

  • Cheri Bustos (IL-17)- Trump margin- 1.6%

  • Elissa Slotkin (MI-08)- Trump margin- 0.8%

  • Andy Kim (NJ-03)- Trump margin- 0.2%

  • Cindy Axne (IA-03)- Trump margin- 0.1%

Now let's look at the 5 districts where the PVI swung most strongly-- 25 towards Satan and 25 in God's direction. First the districts that are going to hell, with Ohio most Satan-friendly:

  • Bill Johnson (OH-06)-- R+16 to R+24, shift is R+8.5

  • Tim Ryan (OH-13)-- D+7 to D+1, shift is R+6.1

  • Bob Gibbs (OH-07)-- R+12 to R+18, shift is R+5.9

  • Jason Smith (MO-08)-- R+24 to R+30, shift is R+5.7

  • Gym Jordan (OH-04)-- R+14 to R+20, shift is R+5.7

  • Frederica Wilson (FL-24)-- D+34 to D+28, shift is R+5.3

  • Peter Stauber (MN-08)-- R+4 to R+10, shift is R+5.3

  • Michelle Fischbach (MN-07)-- R+12 to R+17, shift is R+5.2

  • Ritchie Torres (NY-15)-- D+44 to D+39, shift is R+5.2

  • Markwayne Mullin (OK-02)-- R+24 to R+29, shift is R+5.0

  • Randy Feenstra (IA-04)-- R+11 to R+16, shift is R+4.9

  • Cheri Bustos (IL-17)-- D+3 to R+2, shift is R+4.8

  • Lisa McClain (MI-10)-- R+13 to R+18, shift is R+4.8

  • Filemon Vela (TX-34)-- D+10 to D+5, shift is R+4.8

  • Dan Kildee (MI-05)-- D+5 to D+1, shift is R+4.7

  • Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)-- D+14 to D+9, shift is R+4.6

  • Carlos Gimenez (FL-26)-- D+6 to D+1, shift is R+4.5

  • Ashley Hinson (IA-01)-- D+1 to R+4, shift is R+4.5

  • Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-02)-- D+1 to R+4, shift is R+4.5

  • Henry Cuellar (TX-28)-- D+9 to D+5, shift is R+4.5

  • Rick Crawford (AR-01)-- R+17 to R+21, shift is R+4.4

  • Greg Pence (IN-06)-- R+18 to R+21, shift is R+4.4

  • Elise Stefanik (NY-21)-- R+4 to R+8, shift is R+4.4

  • Glenn Thompson (PA-15)-- R+20 to R+24, shift is R+4.4

  • Tom Tiffany (WI-07)-- R+8 to R+12, shift is R+4.4

And now, the districts where voters are dedicated to finding the path of righteousness and truth. Disgust for Trump in Texas, Georgia and Utah suburbs led to some big shifts:

  • Lucy McBath (GA-06)-- R+8 to D+1, shift is D+8.7

  • John Curtis (UT-03)-- R+25 to R+17, shift is D+8.3

  • Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07)-- R+7 to D+1, shift is D+7.4

  • Van Taylor (TX-03)-- R+13 to R+6, shift is D+7.2

  • Carolyn Bourdeaux (GA-07)-- R+9 to R+2, shift is D+7.0

  • Beth Van Duyne (TX-24)-- R+9 to R+2, shift is D+6.9

  • Burgess Owens (UT-04)-- R+13 to R+6, shift is D+6.9

  • Dan Crenshaw (TX-02)-- R+11 to R+4, shift is D+6.5

  • Colin Allred (TX-32)-- R+5 to D+1, shift is D+6.4

  • Troy Nehls (TX-22)-- R+10 to R+4, shift is D+6.0

  • Blake Moore (UT-01)-- R+26 to R+20, shift is D+5.9

  • Katie Porter (CA-45)-- R+3 to D+3, shift is D+5.7

  • Scott Peters (CA-52)-- D+6 to D+12, shift is D+5.7

  • Chris Stewart (UT-02)-- R+16 to R+10, shift is D+5.7

  • Michael Burgess (TX-26)-- R+18 to R+12, shift is D+5.6

  • Sean Casten (IL-06)-- R+2 to D+3, shift is D+5.2

  • Sharice Davids (KS-03)-- R+4 to D+1, shift is D+5.0

  • Jennifer Wexton (VA-10)-- D+1 to D+6, shift is D+5.0

  • Barry Loudermilk (GA-11)-- R+17 to R+12, shift is D+4.9

  • Don Beyer (VA-08)-- D+22 to D+27, shift is D+4.9

  • Mike Levin (CA-49)-- R+1 to D+4, shift is D+4.8

  • Chip Roy (TX-21)-- R+10 to R+5, shift is D+4.8

  • Greg Stanton (AZ-09)-- D+4 to D+9, shift is D+4.7

  • Jim Himes (CT-04)-- D+7 to D+12, shift is D+4.6

  • Dean Phillips (MN-03)-- D+1 to D+6, shift is D+4.6


I just want to say a little something about packed blue districts that have been gerrymandered to make Republican surrounding seats safer for GOP candidates. Many of the incumbents in these "automatic win" seats are lazy and refuse to campaign, thereby being responsible, at least in part, for low turnout, which leads not just to lower PVIs but-- much worse-- to Republican statewide victories, as happened last year in Texas. Worthless Democrats like Filemon Vela (who is retiring), Henry Cuellar (who will be primaries), and Eddie Bernie Johnson (who is being primaried), and Frederica Wilson (FL) should all be replaced by fighting Dems whose hearts are in it, unlike the careerist self-serving incumbents.

104 views