War on Iran: The Information Gap

Fuel storage and energy complexes in Tehran came under attack late Saturday. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

By Thomas Neuburger

One of the big questions of the Israeli-American war on Iran is the extent of the damage done to each side. Another is the staying power each side possesses.

No independent analyst I’ve read thinks Iran won’t stay the course, and do so no matter the cost. Iran was at war with Iraq for eight long years, and declared again and again its intention to see the war through. In addition, the regime today shows no signs of folding.

Satellite Imagery

As to evidence of damage, there is satellite imagery of Iran, thanks to companies like Planet Labs. Unfortunately, Planet Labs has decided to delay publishing images of Israel and the Gulf states, including U.S. military bases.

Images of Iran, however, will be made immediately available. Planet Labs is based in California and holds numerous U.S. military contracts.

Ars Technica (emphasis mine):

Planet Labs, one of the world’s leading commercial satellite imaging companies, said Friday it is placing a hold on releasing imagery of some parts of the Middle East as a regional war enters its second week. The company, which brands itself as Planet, operates a fleet of several hundred Earth-imaging satellites designed to record views of every landmass on Earth at least once per day. Its customers include think tanks, NGOs, academic institutions, news media, and commercial users in the agriculture, forestry, and energy industries, among others. Planet also holds lucrative contracts selling overhead imagery to the US military and US government intelligence agencies. “In response to the conflict in the Middle East, Planet is implementing temporary restrictions on data access within specific areas of the affected region,” Planet said in a statement emailed to Ars. “Effective immediately, all new imagery collected over the Gulf States, Iraq, Kuwait, and adjacent conflict zones will be subject to a mandatory 96-hour delay before it is made available in our archive.” [Update: Planet Labs has since increased the Israel delay to 14 days.] Imagery over Iran will remain available as soon as it is acquired, the company said. “This change applies to all users except authorized government users who maintain immediate access for mission-critical operations.”

So no real-time data will be coming from them on damage to Israel or the Gulf states.

Non-Satellite Sources

This leaves us with reports and informed speculation, of which there is much. Here I’ll cite one such source. There are plenty of others, including ex-U.S. military and intelligence men and women.

Virtually all American bases within a 300km radius are heavily destroyed, and others further away continue to be attacked by Iran. Note: These bases are very extensive. When I say destroyed, it is because equipment such as radars, radomes [radar domes], command and control centers, and other key facilities were heavily damaged or completely destroyed. However, these bases were not wiped off the map.

If the writer is correct, U.S. bases there are so degraded that it will be years before they’re rebuilt (if they ever are), especially if Iran survives. And should Iran win, it’s possible that future U.S. presence in the Gulf will be non-existent. I’m certain this is one of Iran’s goals.

And none of this begins to address the damage to Israel, which I think is extensive. Remember, the Israel-launched 12-day war ended because Israel needed peace, a respite from the pounding.

We’ll eventually learn much of what’s happened to Israel — either from Chinese satellite imagery or other reports. It will be interesting to see what that is.

It’s a separate discussion to consider the damage even a small success rate — 2-5% missiles not intercepted — can inflict on Israel, the size of a postage stamp, a country smaller than New Hampshire. In contrast, this is Iran:

Source: Al Jazeera

Something to keep in mind.