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Only God's Intervention Could Make The Dems Win The House... So Don't Give Up Hope

The DCCC Blew The Races That Hang In The Balance Now-- Plus The Dems Had Some Shitty Corrupt Conservative Candidates

Califiornia's 3 worst Democratic candidates are all losing-- surprise?

We’re coming into the final stretch of House seat decisions. Some of the uncalled seats are easy to predict. The silliest of all, are the 2 California seats that are Dem vs Dem seats, CA-15 (UPDATE: Called for Mullin) in the Bay Area and CA-34 in Los Angeles. There are no Republicans involved, so these are obviously two more in the count for Democrats. I would also call these for Democrats:

  • ME-02- Rep. Jared Golden (ranked choice) in an R+6 district

  • CO-08- Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer already conceded to Democrat Yadira Caraveo (even PVI)

  • AK-al- Rep. Mary Peltola (ranked choice)

  • OR-06- Andrea Salinas (D+4)

  • CA-06- Rep. Ami Bera (D+7)

  • CA-09- Rep. Josh Harder (D+5)

  • CA- 21- Rep. Jim Costa (D+9)

  • CA-26- Rep. Julia Brownley (D+8)-- UPDATE: Called for Brownley

  • CA-35- Rep. Norma Torres (D+13)-- UPDATE: Called for Torres

  • CA-47- Rep. Katie Porter (D+3)

  • CA-49- Rep. Mike Levin (D+3)

And I'm ready would call these for Republicans

  • CO-03- Lauren Boebert (R+7)

  • NY-22- Brandon Williams was lucky enough to be running against a shitty GOP-lite candidate, Francis Conole in a D+1 district

  • CA-03- Kevin Kiley (R+4)

  • CA-22- Rep David Valadeo was lucky enough to be running against a corrupt, shitty GOP-lite candidate, Rudy Salas, in a D+5 district

  • CA-27- Rep Mike Garcia was lucky enough to be running against a shitty GOP-lite candidate and 4-time loser, Christy Smith, in a D+4 district

  • CA-41- Rep. Ken Calvert (R+3)

  • CA-45- Rep Michelle Steel (D+2)

Genuinely too close to call:

  • AZ-01 (R+2)- DCCC spent $95 to “help” Hodge, who is now (82% counted) leading unpopular GOP incumbent David Schweikert 155,558 (50.7%) to 151,529 (49.3%)

  • AZ-06 (R+3)- After Hakeem Jeffries’ allies at Democratic Majority for Israel spent $75,000 attacking Engel, Jeffries made sure the DCCC would ignore the race— brilliant tactic, especially considering that Kevin McCarthy threw $3,673,657 into the race against Engel and now is one of the closest in the country, Republican Juan Ciscomani leading Kirsten Engel 149,672 (50.49%) to 146,766 (49.51%)with 83% of the votes counted.

  • WA-03 (R+5)- completely ignored by the DCCC because they’re idiots and didn’t realize there was a real opportunity after extremist MAGAt Joe Kent narrowly beat a mainstream conservative incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler. UPDATE: CALLED FOR MARIE

  • OR-05 (D+2)- Jamie McLeod-Skinner was screwed over by the DCCC after she beat one of their own, Blue Dog Kurt Schrader, in the primary

  • CA-13 (D+4)- John Duarte was lucky enough to be running against a corrupt, shitty GOP-lite candidate, Adam Gray

Aaron Zitner, reporting for the Wall Street Journal over the weekend, pointed out the importance of independent voters in this cycle. Though Republicans turnout of more of their base than the Democrats did, “in the course of energizing their core voters, Republicans in many states lost voters in the political center— both independents and many Republicans who are uneasy with elements of the party’s focus under Trump. On top of that, the big GOP turnout was in places where they didn’t need it— Alabama, Wyoming, all the red backward states. The turnout in places where they did need it— Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia— was a different story. The GOP campaign was all about base turnout rather than about persuasion. They talked too much about conspiracy theories and the 2020 election— great for the nutty base and for low-IQ voters in backwards states like Mississippi, but terrible for independent voters who are basically sick of Trump and sick of QAnon’s nonsense.

“[I]ndependents,” wrote Zitner, “favored Democrats by 4 points nationally… and by a far more substantial 18 points in Pennsylvania, 28 points in Georgia and more than 30 points in Arizona. Polling shows that independent voters have little enthusiasm for either party. Both parties were viewed favorably by less than 30% of independents and unfavorably by 50% or more... Independent voters have been an essential ingredient in both parties’ successful campaigns to win control of the House. Republicans carried independents by 14 points in 1994 and by 19 points in 2010, when they claimed the speaker’s gavel, Mr. Winston said. Democrats won independents by 18 points in 2006 and 12 points in 2018, years when they reclaimed control of the House.”

Shane Goldmacher wrote that “interviews with more than 70 people— party strategists, lawmakers and current and former White House officials— also revealed crucial tactical decisions, strategic miscalculations, misreading of polls, infighting and behind-the-scenes maneuvering in both parties that led the GOP to blow its chance at a blowout… Republicans squandered what some saw as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to seize power… From start to finish, Trump was a recurring distraction for party leaders trying to engineer a congressional takeover. He turned the acceptance of his lie about the 2020 election into a litmus test and prized displays of loyalty over political skill, viewing the midterms mostly through the prism of what would help him.”


1 Kommentar

13. Nov. 2022

The underestimated Independent voter turnout was due to Dobbs even more than terror of trump. The nazi supreme court really screwed the pooch in this cycle. In my state, though, all races between boilerplate democraps and trumpist nazi fucktards were still much closer than they should have been.

It looks like preliminary projections were wrong and the democraps will hold their $enate "majority" of 48 or even 49 (given man$ion and $inema will continue to protect the money's interests to the end). And the hou$e will be closer than thought.

so now the democraps can blame the nazi hou$e for getting nothing done; can promise even more that they never intend to do; and campaign on that in 2024.


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