Trump's Congressional Republicans Will Pay A Very Steep Price For Slashing The Social Safety Net

Trump is always bitching about Fox News and was whining about their polling a few days ago. Karl Rove, one of their news analysts just gave him something else to obsess over, pointing out on the air that he’s “in ‘very bad shape’ with the general public after his tariffs upended the economy. ‘And it’s not only that he’s in the short term in bad shape, there’s also evidence in the poll that no matter— even if he gets his way on certain things like tariffs, that he’s not good in the long run... There’s some very deep-seated skepticism among ordinary Americans about the effect of the economy, the president’s economic policies, both in the short run and the long run… [His voters] just hoped that he would do better on inflation and jobs and economic growth. And then when he came in, just the sort of chaos and the inability of the administration to explain what they’re doing, I think has hurt them very much.’”

And it sure isn’t just Rove noticing the emperor is, at best, a little thread-bare. Yesterday, Apollo Global Management, which has over half a trillion dollars in assets, predicted that Trump’s tariff agenda would cause a severe recession this summer. On top of that, a new CNN poll shows that growing majority (59%) says Trump has made the economy worse, with most skeptical of his tariff plans. They reported that “Americans remain broadly unhappy with the nation’s economy… and there’s little enthusiasm for the White House’s sweeping new trade policies. With the impact of new tariffs still largely to come, 6 in 10 already say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their community… Overall, 69% of the public considers an economic recession in the next year to be at least somewhat likely, including 32% who say that’s very likely. Just 34% of Americans call themselves enthusiastic or optimistic about the economy, with 29% saying they’re pessimistic and 37% that they’re afraid... The widespread unhappiness with Trump’s economic stewardship marks a new chapter for a president who saw mostly positive ratings for his handling of the economy during his first term. Trump, who pledged during the 2024 campaign to ‘immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One,’ won handily among voters last year who said they were primarily motivated by economic concerns.”

[T]here are signs in the poll that the president faces some looming discontent even among his own party. While 94% of Republicans say they have confidence in Trump to handle the economy, a smaller 63% of say that his policies have improved economic conditions, and just 23% credit him with bringing down the costs of living in their community. Nearly as many Republicans expect Trump’s tariff policies to hurt their own finances as believe that they’ll help, 28% to 33%.

“The prices for energy, medical services, higher education, repair and maintenance continue to [rise],” one New Jersey Republican wrote, adding, “I think that Pres. Trump’s program will help once they are given a chance.”

Asked to name the biggest economic problem facing their family, a majority point to expenses and high prices, including 28% who mention inflation, 15% the cost of living in general, and 16% food prices, all relatively unabated from the share who mentioned the same issues in June 2024. But some new concerns have risen as well: 9% mention tariffs, 7% say they’re worried about the stock market or their investments, 4% mention Trump and his policies, and 4% cite general economic uncertainty, all of which polled negligibly last summer.

“My wife lost her job due to the Trump administration DOGE cuts,” wrote another survey respondent, a Democrat from Pennsylvania. “We are suddenly down an income with costs rising all around us. My own job is at risk due to NIH grant cuts. Our retirement accounts are plummeting in value. Everything is just so, so much worse than it was before Trump took office.”

Among those currently working at least part time, 50% say they expect Trump’s tariff policies to hurt their industry, and 11% say they will help.

“I make board games and they can’t be made in the US,” a man from Massachusetts wrote. “I have preorders I need to fulfill but can’t afford to with the tariffs. The profit I would have gotten from sales would have allowed my business to grow into a studio, hire people, etc. Now I will lose money.”

While the Trump administration has argued that tariffs will help create new manufacturing jobs in the US, Americans say, 73% to 26%, that they’d personally prefer a job doing office work over one with the same pay doing manufacturing. A modestly higher share of men— 37%— say they’d prefer a manufacturing job, rising to 43% among men who align with the GOP.

Will the Democrats be able to exploit these findings? Yesterday Carl Hulse reported that they’re planning to, especially when the gargantuan spending cuts to the social safety net are released. “Republicans,” he wrote, “will be forced to begin providing politically charged specifics of their tax and spending program, handing the minority ample fodder for attacks. House Republicans have so far been able to generalize about their spending plans in the budget outline that they barely squeezed through the House and Senate. But beginning this week in multiple House committees, lawmakers will have to explain in public how they would achieve $1.5 trillion or more in savings to go with hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending on the military and border enforcement, and trillions in tax cuts. ‘Up to this point, Republicans have been lying about their intentions,’ Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House Democratic leader, said in an interview. ‘As we move forward with the next phase of the budget process, it will become crystal clear in committee after committee the damage they are trying to do to the American people.’”

Emily Berge is the progressive Democrat taking on Derrick Van Orden, who voted to move the GOP Austerity budget forward, this cycle. She told us that his “attacks on Medicaid show exactly how out of touch he is with the people of western Wisconsin. Cutting health care for our most vulnerable neighbors isn’t leadership— it’s cruelty.” 

And Lukas Ventouras, the progressive Democrat running in Suffolk County, is also facing a social safety net slasher. This morning he told us that “Nick LaLota, the Congressman from Wall Street, is frothing at the mouth to cut Medicaid. Even though he's been taking out ads calling the idea that he'd cut Medicaid ‘false,’ the proof is in the actions he takes. The budget resolution, supported by Nick LaLota, would cut Medicaid and plunge millions of Americans, seniors, low income and disabled folks, into chaos, and uncertainty. Nick LaLota is a corporate sellout who would sell Suffolk County residents down the river if it meant his corporate donors and handlers receive their tax cuts. He has no business representing a district where a third of the population live below the poverty line, while he galivants around DC and NYC with the oligarchs. We must send Nick LaLota a message by sending him packing after the midterms.” 

Democrats say that no cut is too small to highlight. They intend to highlight the consequences of the GOP plan, from reducing food assistance for the poor to eliminating clean energy tax credits. They plan to call special attention to possible Medicaid cuts, an issue they have raised repeatedly in recent months.

Republicans have insisted that their legislation will not eliminate health insurance or other benefits for those who need them, including Medicaid coverage. Multiple GOP members of the House and Senate have said that they would not support any final package that slashes Medicaid.

But Democrats and independent budget analysts say that if Republicans have any hope of meeting their budget targets, they will have to wring significant savings out of the joint federal-state program for low-income Americans.

Democrats, who have spent part of the recess plotting strategy for the upcoming committee sessions, say that they realized Medicaid was a political soft spot for Republicans in January, when the Trump administration briefly froze a portal used to fund state programs, drawing an intense backlash from lawmakers and state officials. They have since focused on the likelihood of GOP cuts, putting Republicans on notice about the political risks.

Republicans have floated options for reducing the cost of the program without cutting benefits, including by instituting work requirements and clearing the Medicaid rolls of undocumented immigrants. Representative Austin Scott, Republican of Georgia, suggested another approach in a recent Fox Business Channel interview, saying that the Republican-led Congress could cut the amount that the federal government reimburses states for people enrolled in the Affordable Care Act’s adult expansion group veterans in Medicaid.

“Nobody would be kicked off of Medicaid as long as the governors decided that they wanted to continue to fund the program,” he said, implying that any cuts should then be attributed to the states, not Washington.

But Democrats will frame that as a cut. And they have pledged to hold the Republicans accountable as the legislation comes together.

“As Republicans flesh out the details of their massive tax giveaway for billionaires, people will not have to wait to learn what’s on the chopping block,” Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, said in a statement. “Democrats are going to make sure everyone knows every detail of who is really on the losing end of Donald Trump’s deal.”

Derailing the Republican legislation will be difficult. Despite serious differences between the House and the Senate, as well as disagreements among Republicans in both chambers, congressional Republicans— with help from Trump— have managed to move the process forward. But the coming debate will be their most difficult yet.

Democrats are returning to Washington sensing that they are on better footing after an extremely difficult few months to start the year, when they looked for ways to stand up to Mr. Trump as he flexed his popularity and his willingness to work around Congress.

They may have hit a low point in mid-March, when they engaged in a nasty internal quarrel over whether a group of Senate Democrats led by Schumer should have provided the votes for a six-month government funding bill. They have been eager to pivot and direct their fire at the other party.

During the recess, Democrats appeared in Republican-led states and House districts to build opposition to the coming legislation, focusing daylong programs on preserving Social Security and Medicaid. Trump has helped them regroup with on-again, off-again tariffs that have rattled the markets and cut into retirement savings.

The Elon Musk-led reductions in the federal work force have spurred concern that government services could suffer, particularly with cuts at Social Security offices and veterans facilities. The drop in the president’s approval rating has not gone unnoticed by Democrats.

“Trump screws up in so many ways,” Schumer said in an interview. “We have to find every way he screws up and pound away at him and not just do it for a day. We gotta keep doing it.”