Crushing Greenpeace Victory Against The Dutch State— Holland's Right Wing Government In Disarray

Populist Slam On Brakes No Longer Works: Nitrogen Lock Is Economic Suicide

-by Toon Janssen

DWT Amsterdam correspondent

Note: in the Netherlands— and the rest of Europe— the political term ‘liberal’ refers to someone who prioritizes individual liberties and limited government, encompassing some aspects of American ‘conservative’ thinking.

When will the truth catch up with the lie? The more bullshit proclaimed, psychologists claim to know, the more it permeates people’s mind. The general distrust in Dutch politics rocketed sky-high once former Minister of Justice, Dilan Yesilgoz (VVD liberals) outright lied about the scale of follow-up travelling by asylum seekers. She made up wild stories, while it was later conclusively established the phenomenon hardly occurred. Her self-invented fallacy caused the fall of Rutte IV Cabinet in which she herself sat, on July 7, 2023. It gave the then Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD), nickname Teflon Mark, after a 12-year policy of much detested liberalization and mismanagement, the necessary leeway to run for NATO Secretary General, in which he succeeded. Yesilgoz then seized VVD leadership, and the tone was set for new election campaigns in which migration took center space. None other than self-absorbed xenophobe and ultra-right populist Geert Wilders (PVV), nickname Peroxide Blonde, benefited most. His star rocketed to a 2.5 million votes high.

Yesilgoz also became legendary for another ‘dirty trick’ that actually contributed to Wilders’ surprising popularity. In the run-up campaigns she miscalculated voter behavior totally. She expected a strategy of taking over points from Wilders’ program would work. She, as well as influential VVD mastodons, figured: “when people feel blocked and threatened, and we adopt PVV positions regarding asylum and migration, then voters no longer will choose the Wilders option.” However, precisely on this point VVD dug its grave, losing House majority while PVV won seats. The voters had anticipated the trick and opted for the original instead of a copy. The damage was already done; the genie had escaped from the bottle. 

Election results were staggering. The far right PVV won— plus 20 with now 37 in the 150 seat House— and center-right VVD lost 10 with now 24 left. Other relevant winners were newly established NSC (New Social Contract) of Pieter Omtzigt— from 0 to a surprising 20— and BBB  Farmers-Citizen Movement, led by Caroline van der Plas, up from 1 to 7. What just a few people thought would happen, the successful formation of a coalition, happened. It took almost a year but the outcome was clear: Geert Wilders was no longer a pariah to be kept out. Unfortunately for him there turned out to be a reservation: he was not awarded the premiership he desired.

Initially, it was generally assumed the losing VVD learned lessons and would opt out. It was also assumed the winning NSC would not join. At the time new rising star on Dutch political stage, NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt, was known for combining unwavering faith in the Constitution with sound budgetary rules. 

He was also known for having an allergy to populist hotlist wishes, much to Wilders’ chagrin. The latter once dubbed him “a hypocrite Catholic creep.” In short, there was quite some distrust; parties were more likely condemned by each other than serious partners. However, BBB was the exception, since Caroline van der Plas’ eagerness to stand next to Peroxide Blonde was considered beyond any doubt. It was said “she fishes from the same populist pond,” with the difference being her loyalty to the agricultural industry lobby, including factory farming.

Nevertheless, despite the doubts, political reality proved surprising. During negotiations some sort of common interest emerged between the parties. Negotiators were appointed to embroider on this and they succeeded in neutralizing the mutual distrust. To get the ‘train on track’ a Hoofdlijnenakkoord— a rough outline agreement— was drawn up, agreed upon and signed. Also four Vice-Presidents were appointed, one for each coalition party, and Wilders was sidetracked as PM. The fact he rigged out a ‘milder’ version of himself turned out to be not convincing enough, especially not to Omtzigt.

Dick Schoof, little known to the general public, was pulled out of the hat as Head of Government. This 67 year old however, a renegade socialist in the past who fell from faith, enjoyed an impressive reputation within the civil service. He was considered as most ‘perfect crisis manager.’ It was argued that not being committed to any party would be an advantage. Not everyone agreed with that, noting that he would be too easy a target to fire on for ‘boss’ Wilders, either from the benches of the House or on Twitter, his favorite medium. For many it was obvious that he was a marionette, with Wilders pulling the strings. But still, the swearing in of the new cabinet took place July 2, 2024, about a year after Rutte IV collapsed. You might wonder what happened next? 

The first six months of Cabinet Schoof were tumultuous, to say the least. Right from its start his authority was challenged, and his cabinet almost fell the moment it took off. One problem followed another. A basic principle in Dutch coalition, with sixteen parties in the House, is aimed at reaching consensus and willingness to step over one’s own shadow. If all parties involved have different ‘shopping lists’ then it always becomes a matter of give and take, compromise. It becomes a problem however, when budgets are limited, while inflation rages and unrealistic promises were made to voters, something Schoof had to deal with from start.

But there was one more issue worth mentioning here that might have caused serious frustration. Actually, every bill the House proposed could be blocked by Senate, where the coalition that controls House has no majority. In 75 seats Senate the right wing proposals are missing eight seats to pass, much to Wilders’ annoyance. Getting support there requires negotiations with no fewer than fifteen party factions, including a substantial center-left social democratic one.

When ministerial budgets were discussed, things got out of hand again. To fulfill promises, partners discovered many financial issues, discussed in Hoofdlijnenakkoord, that had been left incomplete. For example, how to achieve a promised tax reduction for citizens? And, in what way to get rid of the 385 euro personal contribution to health care each year? Or, two more examples, how to raise minimum salaries and run the economy without migrant workers? Even PM Schoof pointed out ministerial budgets were put together carelessly and too quickly. With need to deliver on plans in mind, he was thereafter actually primarily concerned with ‘rebuilding’ the State Budget, shopping with the ministries to accommodate eighteen billion cuts somewhere. Schoof shoves, “Schoof schuift” as the Dutch say in this context. Now let me explain to you with a few cases what his JoJo politics led to.

Yes, it was to be expected from someone who thinks culture is just a left-wing hobby, as Wilders does: cutting back on almost everything that marks civilization. So when you’re desperately short of money, why not level up Vat-payments on all cultural goods and services? It seemed no other than Wilders had a big say here, being supported by liberal Minister of Finance Bas Heinen (VVD). Not surprisingly exactly that was proposed by the Schoof Cabinet for 2026 to be realized, from 9 to 21 percent. Anyone who likes to practice sports, who loves to read or visit museums; anyone who enjoys theater, concerts and shows or do something else fun; as well as anyone who may book hotels, uses platforms like Airbnb or enjoys camping, they all would end up spending more. However, what Wilders probably neglected to realize, took place. An enormous storm of national criticism erupted, opposition in the House climaxed and Senate warnedthe plans were a no-go on top of that. So what would be the next step then, if you like JoJo? “Well, let us just skip it then,” an opportunist right-wing parliamentarian raved, “and harass another minister for cuts.” And so it went, most Vat-increases were put out to pasture, except on hotels and accommodation, and ‘lap dog’ Schoof faced a 1.2 billion gap in his budget.

Initially the cabinet even suggested 2 billion cuts at the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, headed by Eppo Bruins (NSC). But after strong criticism from the educational field, it was then reduced to the 1.2 billion mentioned above. “It is just less bad,” Bruins said in his defense. But schools and universities were still not happy and threatened striking. In mid-December, it was then agreed to cut down to 748 million. But that didn’t end the unrest either. 

Very interesting how this deal was reached. The balance of power in the Senate turned out to be decisive: four opposition parties there— together providing more than the eight seats required— decided in favor of the deal, this time to the coalition’s ‘advantage.’  The outcome however, left PvdA/GroenLinks— an alliance of social democrats and greens that forms the largest opposition party with 25 House seats— confused: “Betrayal! They split us apart!”

But in the meantime Schoof’s budget still hadn’t been completed. Austeritarian Finance Minister Heinen, who loved to keep his wallet tight, was still not satisfied: “it must hurt somewhere else next,” he stated. 

To what minister then could they possibly turn to for the missing money saved on education? They ended up at the Ministry of Health, where Fleur Agema (PVV) called the shots. Her party, the one-man Wilders stage, had never before made infection control a major issue, finding it ‘woke’ while corona raged for example. Why not cut on that? And so they did. However— to compensate this— Agema had ‘a cloth for the bleeding’ ready. In a Letter to Parliament she wrote “to regret the negative impact 400 million in cuts have on vaccines, against RS-virus for example.” She thought just expressing regrets would suffice.

Things remained shaky within coalition, and certainly not just in terms of budgets. At a certain moment Asylum and Migration Minister Marjolein Faber (PVV), by definition Wilders’ favorite, tried to sideline both House and Senate introducing emergency legislation. She assumed that way she would have a free rein to implement migration the PVV way: “No migrants, the Netherlands suffer from over overload.” But that was blocked, by both Senate and Council of States advice.

While ‘on the road’ for about half a year, the Prime Minister’s lack of direction constantly emerged as criticism. “He allows himself to be ruled by a shadow in the House, without any reply, taking pride to carry out others people’s demands,” was said. “At crucial moments he does his best not to think anything of something at all and let ultra-rights have their way,” was written.

Criticism was not limited to him alone; coalition partners were continuously shot at: “PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB completely bend the House and cabinet to their will, ministers only implement and are sidelined that way.” Their indecisiveness was blamed on too much time spent arguing, while only sixteen bills were adopted. For comparison: the four Rutte Cabinets had an average of sixty in their first six months. Not surprisingly therefore, current cabinet confidence dropped to a 33 percent low, that is one in three Dutch people.

                                                                                                                    It became clear that something had to be done, so all hands on deck became the motto. Schoof had no choice but to first improve his image. He had every interest in ensuring his cabinet would radiate it was in control, with excellent mutual relationships. But still, team-building was considered an necessary luxury to boost morale and power of persuasion.  At the end of last year, ministers and their state secretaries went out cooking together, with their partners. They all received an apron with their name on it, to emanate team spirit. Beginning New Year they went out for dinner, again with their partners.

Meanwhile Wilders went his own way; boosting his image came naturally. He actually didn’t have to search for publicity at all, since it seemed to come by itself. A few one-liners on Twitter, often to display his shadow world, were enough to present his position alongside that of the government. Take for example his threat to pull the plug and blow up the cabinet, the moment Asylum and Migration Minster Faber could not get her much desired emergency legislation through. Take, another example, the way in which he publicly sabotaged official government policy, especially regarding Israel’s bombing terror in the Gaza-strip. Not a word came from Dick’s lips when Wilders, as if he were Dutch head of state, recently visited brutal settlers on the West Bank, who demand Palestinian expulsion. He made no secret of his ‘importance’ to the outside world indeed, where Europe in particular seemed to be drifting towards an anti-elite populist bastion. In many countries, a feeling emerged that the ruling parties no longer represented the people. Currently, populists have 1,329 seats in 25 European countries and shared government in eight member states. In Victor Orban’s Hungary the red carpet was rolled out for Wilders continuously. Whether it was Meloni, Fico, Farrage or le Pen: “they are all my great friends”. Donald Trump? He can’t wait to shake hands.

Every commotion seemed to slide away from ‘the real boss.’ Also in a recent 2025 Ipsos poll, PVV emerged as the largest party, while NSC plummeted from 20 seats to just 2. Wilders’ party did not appear to suffer from low satisfaction surveys.

Then the real hot news came! The media was full of panic stories about a time bomb that would hit the Netherlands. The bottom headline: “If Dick Schoof wants to avoid going down as premier throwing the Netherlands in the lock, then he better convince Caroline van der Plas’ right-wing populist BBB that she was going down a dead end.” We are convinced that you are eager to know the ins and outs of this.

Present Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma (BBB) was urgently faced with two severe interconnected headaches: a nitrogen crisis and a manure surplus impasse. The problem had a very long history of overload on fragile Dutch nature reserves. For over five years now, after a case brought up by Greenpeace concerning nitrogen, the Council of State instructed the government to exercise better compliance with European nature conservation legislation. The then Rutte Government arrived at a so-called Result Obligation that had priority to achieve by 2030. However, since little progress was made in this regard thereafter, Dutch nature reserves still suffered from too much deposition. It was therefore that Greenpeace recently went to court again, to enforce protection. They claimed around 90 percent of protected Nature2000 reserves still were in extremely poor condition. According to the environmental organization Dutch State didn’t honor its own agreements. January 25 this year, Greenpeace was largely vindicated by court. 

Just before Christmas last year, there was another court decision that we must remind you about. An indictment— against processor of carcasses Rendac and biomass-fired power plant Amercentrale— served for test case law reasons. The judges decided a major change then in rules surrounding internal netting, preventing an increase in nitrogen deposition. Previously, nitrogen emissions from one project could be offset against emissions of a new project at the same location, filling up a so-called nitrogen space. For example, a livestock farmer who wanted to demolish an old stable to build a new one there, or who planned a residential area to be built with the nitrogen space of the farm that used to be there, that farmer would previously not require a new permit. By now the European Court of Justice decided, calculated retroactively from 2020, new permit requirements to be obligatory. Fortunately— given the shock it caused— the verdict gave many entrepreneurs opportunity to get their papers fixed, till 2033. 

It may be clear to you by now, the Civil Court left absolutely nothing intact of Dutch nitrogen policy. The judges, in devastating verdicts, blamed the Minister of Agriculture in particular, who dismissed her predecessor’s policy. Femke Wiersma didn’t do that in a minor way. On the contrary, she accepted Schoof Cabinet downed the Agricultural Transition Fund, set up by Rutte Cabinet in the past. From the amount of 24.4 billion to a paltry 5 only, without supplying counter policy. It was then said by her: “we need less money, only for buying out farmers on a voluntary base. We can save the sector that way.” In short, by not complying with its own regulation the Dutch State acted unlawfully, while enough evidence was provided of threats for nature.

Work needed to be done, all hands on deck! The Dutch State was urgently obliged to protect at least 50 percent of nature from overload by 2030 and 74 percent by 2035, punishable by high penalties. Why on earth did the government let it get to this point? What were the consequences?

Politicians were reluctant to take effective measures in the past because that would particularly affect high-scale Dutch livestock farming industry. Mind you, in 2024 the Netherlands exported 128.9 billion in agricultural goods, a 5 percent growth compared to the previous year. Globally, the small surfaced country came second, after US but ahead of Germany. However, agriculture emitted the most nitrogen of all sectors of economy, through ammonia production from animal manure. While everyone knew it couldn’t go on like this, former cabinets were shocked by fierce farmer protests. There were plenty of tractor roadblocks at the time, heavily ruining the economy. Enforced livestock shrinkage proved politically unfeasible, especially when BBB Farmers-Citizens achieved an overwhelming Senate victory the other day. On top of that, in November 2023 House elections, PVV and BBB both won. As a consequence BBB claimed Agriculture— their specialty— and supplied Femke Wiersma to slam on the brakes. Why on earth they thought she would be successful, we wonder once more. 

Let’s now get straight to this next. It all had to do with both BBB’s political constituency, which is the agro sector and its lobby, and lack of vision about what agriculture in the Netherlands should look like in the near future. At the end of 2024, Wiersma— read Van der Plas— acknowledged there was no quick solution available. She advised livestock farmers to make their own choices, but wasn’t explicit concerning this. “No enforced buyout or herd reduction for sure,” she pointed out, “since that is a solemn election promise.” Next to suggesting tackling nitrogen by voluntary buyout, and reserving money for that purpose, she allocated two billion, of the five left available, for better nature management and innovations. However, research showed innovations would cost an average dairy farmer at least 70,000 euro per year. “How can she ever expect farmers to invest that amount while future prospects are poor? If you don’t know whether you can stay, you’re not going to innovate,” was lectured from the sector. This was supported by scientists, who also added: “the reason we are in crisis is because acceptance among farmers has been low, not the other way. Politics must first provide farmers with security of existence. Take for example the manure problem. Before, Brussels accorded the Netherlands derogation exception. But that advantage is over now, with cow dung overload in cellars as a result. Those who cannot pay for disposal go bankrupt. Soon after Greenpeace’s victory many already considered quitting.” It doesn’t really help then, when you train to Brussels to hit the table with your shoe, as Van der Plas did. “For publicity reasons,” insiders said. More than once Wilders’ favorite was accused of just “throwing cow shit against the wall to wait and see what sticks.”

Slowly but surely people realized nitrogen issues to be important for Dutch society as a whole. Court decisions made clear that not only farmers but companies as well needed permits. These were now required for each new plan, even if it produces fewer overall emissions. The fact that the measures also had retrospective effects in particular caused panic: as mentioned, permits issued in the past could also be questioned. Mind you dear reader, we are now talking about permits for entire residential areas that were or needed to be built; about factories growing in size and road construction; or about expansion of Schiphol Airport and the set-up of energy-consuming data centers, to mention just some examples.  

Minister of Housing and Spatial Planning, Mona Keijzer (BBB), made clear she did not want to automatically take over judicial decisions: “I would be very concerned if I am in a residential area and my permit turns out to be incorrect. Would I still get it approved afterwards? No way we agree on that! It is the world turned upside down. We are short in housing! We need a new balance in current legislation. I’ll go to Brussels for that.” And so she did also. “For publicity reasons,” was whispered in the corridors by her criticizers. 

No wonder Mona got Caroline, both BBB, on her side. They demanded that the government stop focusing blindly on Brussels’ set goals. “We have to cut off nitrogen rules that don’t make sense and are completely out of balance. Livestock herd reduction? For sure no, since it is a society problem that we all share,” Van der Plas argued.

Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management, Barry Madlerer (PVV), who previously had minor concerns about speed limits for fat bikes and highways, was also suddenly confronted with a much bigger issue. “We must no longer just focus on emission goals. Roads need to be built in this country. We can’t allow shrinking any further. Imposing restrictions on Schiphol Airport? We commit economic suicide that way!” he warned.

To shorten a longer list of stories than those outlined briefly above: while almost all ministries panicked about the fate of the country, the call for directions became urgent.

And then of course all eyes were on the Prime Minister. Apart from nitrogen, didn’t his government already have severe problems in both the Cabinet and the House? He was constantly fired upon by shadow premier Wilders, was in no uncertain terms challenged by NSC Pieter Omtzigt on constitutional and ethical manners, and was  over and again urged by VVD Minister of Finance Bas Heinen to be frugal. PVV Marjolein Faber also did not get much further on migration, except for strong language. The Dutch Prime Minister was said to “lack political experience as a civil servant before and desperately missed party backing, not being affiliated with any. No shoulder for him to lean on.” What strategy could Dick use in his defense? 

Of course he was concerned— that couldn’t be emphasized enough. He was constantly keen to cheer up the Council of Ministers. “We must make breakthroughs on nitrogen and restore balance in current legislation. We must deliver results, since it’s what voters asked for,” he argued in desperation at his weekly press conference, “I have decided to take charge myself.” Concrete measures? He did not mention any. But since he was also convinced the problem went beyond agriculture alone, he set up a special Working Committee of Ministers. “To oversee the overall consequences and find ways to solve them. We must consider all options to prevent the country getting locked,” he pointed out. He also announced solving the problem would take longer than just a week. He would also travel to Brussels— yet again once more— this time to reargue for an exception position for the Netherlands, as it had before. However, he did not want to explain this any further. Could that then really be all he had to offer in terms of decisiveness?

If we now put everything together, then it would not come as a surprise, given fragile political relations within coalition, parties might search for the right moment to get off before the end of the ride, and quit. But apparently that is still a long way off for Schoof. It might then be to his advantage that he has long breath, running marathons as hobby. He did eighteen of them, including Big Sur Highway 1 in US. Actually the 21-mile, in four hours, 10 minutes!