Not counting today, there are 3 days before MAGA Mike presides over a government shutdown with his cockamamie plan that neither his right-wing allies nor most Democrats think is a good idea. The way things stand now, there aren’t enough Republicans backing him to pass his proposal, so he’ll have to pray-- something he specializes in-- that there are Democrats who will help him out, either by negotiating with Jeffries or by counting on the strays— Blue Dogs plus Dean Philips, who said he’d get off the kamikaze presidential campaign trail to come back to DC and vote for it. And if Jeffries gives it the thumbs up, will Trump flip out and tell Matt Gaetz fire MAGA Mike? This morning, there were about 50 Republicans ready to vote no and MAGA Mike decided to forgo the Rules Committee, meaing he'd need 290 yes votes (indicating he made a deal with Jeffries). We woke up today with the distinct possibility that more Democrats would vote for it than Republicans!
The extremists are pissed off because the budget doesn’t outlaw abortion, reduce the salaries of everyone in the Biden administration to $1, doesn’t shut down the border, doesn’t end Medicare and Social Security and some of other stuff… depending on which crackpot you ask. The CR is too clean for nuts like Bob Good (R-VA), Chip Roy (R-TX) and Freedom Caucus chair Scott Perry (R-PA), who said yesterday that “I will not support a status quo that fails to acknowledge fiscal irresponsibility, and changes absolutely nothing while emboldening a do-nothing Senate and a fiscally illiterate President.”
Jordain Carney and Sarah Ferris reported that “House Democrats have not yet devised a voting strategy, though there is not ‘mass opposition right now’ to the plan, according to one Democratic member. Still, the party would prefer it include aid for Israel and Ukraine, and dislikes that the GOP is proposing two separate deadlines to complete the rest of its appropriations work. Some senior Democratic appropriators like ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) have already come out publicly against it. Multiple other Democratic members, however, noted that some in their party are likely to support the bill, though conversations are ongoing… The two-part strategy was initially embraced by members of the House Freedom Caucus— and panned in advance by Democrats— because it would avoid the threat of the Senate trying to jam through a massive funding bill just before the holidays. But Perry, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and other members of the group have balked because Johnson’s plan is largely a so-called clean continuing resolution. It doesn’t include massive spending cuts pushed for by conservatives, or other GOP priorities like border security or more aid for Israel.”
Roy is a member of the Rules Committee, meaning he’ll get his first shot at voting against the bill on Monday afternoon. Johnson will also need to hold his conference together to even bring his spending bill to the floor— a once-routine step that has grown increasingly uncertain this year given the deep divisions with a House GOP conference that only rules by a four-seat majority.
Further complicating matters, Johnson saw his broader spending strategy rejected by his own members. The speaker and his team were forced to pull two of the GOP’s own spending bill’s from the floor last week— aggravating fellow Republicans rather than helping them to unify ahead of this Saturday’s funding deadline.
Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell reported that MAGA Mike faces the herculean task of uniting an ideologically fractious conference that has been pulled further apart after a contentious speakership fight that exposed and strengthened lingering resentments, policy differences and doubt that Republicans can ever find consensus again. Johnson has never served in a highly placed leadership role that would have forced him to know a broad swath of the conference, and he has stepped into the fray at a time when a leader is critical not only to the functioning of American government but also to decisions related to aiding foreign democracies.”
“People want to give Mike grace to be able to move forward. But at the end of the day, we have a job and the clock is ticking. You’re storming the beaches of Normandy and somebody goes down, you don’t sit around and form a committee,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) said about Johnson’s approach to listening and incorporating requests. “Time is ticking and we got to go get it done.”
…But hard-right members immediately rejected the short-term funding plan over the weekend, frustrated that it doesn’t include border policy provisions, spending cuts or funding for Israel. There is also widespread recognition from lawmakers and senior aides that it will need Democratic votes to pass.
When asked last week whether he would support a staggered continuing resolution, or CR, with no other policy riders attached to it, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called the idea “ridiculous.”
But now that the plan is official and a shutdown looms, Democrats are signaling an openness to the idea by not broadly criticizing it. A senior House Democratic aide said leadership is “still discussing” how to approach the measure. They appreciate that there are no conservative poison pills attached but think the staggered approach is overly complicated. Democrats also worry that they could lose their leverage to pass emergency funding for Ukraine and Israel.
The lack of spending cuts and decision to fund the Defense Department until February have also appeased some Senate Democrats who were wary of the two-tier approach. Democrats historically fear that Republicans would be willing to shut down the entire government if defense funding is complete. This proposal keeps defense funding on the table to provide incentive to fund the rest of the government.
“It’s a good thing the Speaker didn’t include unnecessary cuts and kept defense funding with the second group of programs,” a Senate Democratic leadership aide said.
Besides averting a government shutdown, Johnson also must overcome deep policy disputes to finish passing full-year funding bills and approve must-address reauthorizations touching farming and federal aviation before year’s end. Meanwhile, he has to navigate waning support for Ukraine aid while managing ongoing demands for the passage of a border security bill.
“This will be a very heavy lift and Johnson will need to expand tons of political capital,” one House Republican lawmaker said of Johnson’s attempt to pass the stopgap bill. “Maybe he gets there in this honeymoon phase.”
… “Johnson is allowing the inmates to run the asylum,” one senior GOP leadership aide said.
Before Johnson made his decision on a proposal to avert a government shutdown, many governing-minded Republicans said that he should ultimately support passage of a clean funding extension until January that possibly tacks on Israel aid, because members of the Freedom Caucus would not move to oust him immediately if he did. While several Freedom Caucus members said they would not make a motion to vacate Johnson from the speakership, several privately admitted a decision to pass a clean funding extension— ostensibly with the help of Democrats— would start to test their patience.
Johnson will have to continue reassuring both factions of the conference as he moves ahead on tackling must-address issues.
He had been telegraphing to pragmatic lawmakers in private conversations that he does not support a government shutdown and wants to fund aid to Israel and Ukraine through offsets, a position that fiscal conservatives across the conference support. In one conversation with a vulnerable Republican, Johnson assured them he could not allow the government to shut down because he could not bear running into military service members at his local grocery store and knowing they are not getting paid.
During a luncheon with the centrist Republican Governance Group, several lawmakers asked him to avoid making them vote on abortion-related issues because it could hurt their reelection chances, according to four people present. In response, Johnson said he had met earlier with several antiabortion groups and told them not to expect the GOP majority to pass a federal abortion ban or similar measures because vulnerable Republicans could not handle the political implications. He also noted that a federal abortion bill would not pass a Democratic Senate, according to a person in the room.
…“I don’t think the Lord Jesus himself could manage this group,” Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-TX) said as his cigar burned outside the Capitol. “I tell you, we keep it up, we won’t keep the House.”
