The Republicans Haven't Been Able To Pass Any Of Their Priorities Yet— Will The Byrd Rule Stop Them?

"Debt Ceiling" by Nancy Ohanian

As the Republicans are still trying to come up with a bill to encompass Trump’s and their own agendas that will satisfy their own members and avoid the Democrats’ filibuster power (“reconciliation”) they have already been caught trying to sneak some of their pet projects into the “big beautiful bill.” But they’re running smack into a procedural buzzsaw: the Byrd Rule. Ultimately, the power to decide what stays and what gets tossed in reconciliation lies not with MAGA Mike or John Thune or even Elon Musk or Señor Trumpanzyy but with the Senate parliamentarian— the chamber’s unelected but immensely powerful referee. It’s her job to interpret whether a provision meets the strict requirements of the Byrd Rule. Senators can challenge an item, but if the parliamentarian rules it out of bounds, it’s dead— unless 60 votes can be found to waive the rule, which in today’s polarized Senate is a nonstarter. So while House Republicans might dream big, it’s the parliamentarian who quietly holds the red pen— and she’s not swayed by talking points or political pressure. Her rulings are grounded in precedent, not partisanship, and they’ve derailed plenty of overreaches in the past.

Despite the fact that there hasn’t been a single Senate markup on reconciliation yet— and, according to yesterday’s Punchbowl crew— probably never will be— the Byrd Rule has already come into play, casting a long shadow over GOP ambitions. Remember, the Byrd Rule a Senate safeguard designed to keep reconciliation— one of the few filibuster-proof tools in the chamber— strictly limited to provisions that directly impact federal spending, revenue, or the debt limit. That means no ideological hobbyhorses, no structural overhauls of government agencies, and no clever attempts to sneak policy changes past the finish line. If it doesn’t cost money or change how money flows, it’s out.

Already, it’s causing heartburn. The House Judiciary Committee had to scrap its plan to shift antitrust enforcement authority from the FTC to the Justice Department after Senate staff made clear it wouldn’t survive Byrd scrutiny. Now House Republicans on the Agriculture Committee are trying to jam more of their otherwise unpassable farm bill into reconciliation— leaving just a sliver for bipartisan talks. But Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (R-AR) isn’t buying it. “Most of the stuff that they’re talking about, I don’t think would survive the Byrd Rule in the Senate,” he said flatly. “Their rules are very different from ours.”

And he’s right. The Byrd Rule is designed precisely to stop this kind of legislative abuse. It’s not just a speed bump— it’s a quasi-constitutional guardrail against stuffing unrelated, unpopular, or politically toxic provisions into must-pass fiscal bills. And unless House Republicans suddenly become budgetary minimalists, they’re going to find out the hard way that reconciliation isn’t a Trojan horse— it’s a very small box, with very thick walls.

Two targeted agencies— the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Public Company Accounting Oversight Board— both exist outside the normal appropriations process.

Republicans believe they can argue both changes will result in revenue for the federal government that can be used as reconciliation pay-fors. But it’s not a given that the Senate parliamentarian will agree.

Democrats are deeply skeptical that the effort will generate meaningful savings.

“House Republicans want to fire the cops on the beat who protect families from getting scammed and cheated,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said Thursday. “That doesn’t save anybody money, and the House Republicans know that.”

Trump's deranged fits won't fit into reconciliation. This was a fabulous one from Thursday night. Read it... it was written by the American president. He wants to start expelling Democrats from Congress: