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Census Data Could Be A Political Death Sentence For Some Incumbents



The first batch of flawed and inaccurate census data-- purposefully tampered with by the Trump regime to disadvantage people of color-- was released a few hours ago and these are the gains and losses in the House-- which also means gains and losses in the electoral college. In 2020 Biden would have lost a net of 3 electoral votes and Trumpanzee would have gained 3, not enough to have effected the outcome.

  • New York- loses one seat

  • California- loses one seat

  • Illinois- loses one seat

  • Ohio- loses one seat

  • Michigan- loses one seat

  • Pennsylvania- loses one seat

  • West Virginia- loses one seat


  • Colorado- gains one seat

  • Florida- gains one seat

  • Montana- gains one seat

  • North Carolina- gains one seat

  • Oregon- gains one seat

  • Texas- gains two seats


Biggest surprises were Rhode Island keeping 2 seats, makes race between 2 Democratic incumbents unnecessary; Texas only picked up 2 instead of 3; Minnesota lost no seats; Arizona didn't gain a seat; Florida only gained one instead of 2; Alabama managed to hold onto all 7 seats, when it looked like they would lose one. New York lost a seat by 89 people!


Dave Wasserman at Cook looked at how the gerrymandering is going to go. "Republicans," he wrote, "have the final authority to draw congressional lines in 187 districts, down from 219 seats in 2011. Democrats will have final authority in states totaling 75 districts, up from 44 in 2011. New bipartisan commissions passed by voters in Colorado, Michigan and Virginia bring the number of commission-drawn districts to 121 up from 88 ten years ago. And there are 46 districts in states where control is split between the parties, down from 77. Republicans' biggest redistricting weapons are Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina-- and they could conceivably pick up all five seats they need for the majority from those four alone. Meanwhile, Democrats' most prized states are Illinois and Maryland. The biggest wild cards? New York and Ohio, where lopsided state legislatures could conceivably ignore new reforms and impose deeply partisan gerrymanders.

Wasserman also gave his opinion of which incumbents are at the greatest rick of being redistricted out of their seats, although some of the incumbents are moving on anyway, some to retire and others to run for other offices:

  • Chris Pappas (D-NH)

  • Lee Zeldin (R-NY)

  • Claudia Tenney (R-NY)

  • Tom Reed (R-NY)

  • Matt Cartwright (D-PA)

  • Dan Meuser (R-PA)

  • Andy Harris (R-MD)

  • David McKinley (R-WV)

  • Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)

  • Jim Cooper (R-TN)

  • Stephanie Murphy (D-FL)

  • Charlie Crist (D-FL)

  • Adam Kinzinger (R-IL)

  • Rodney Davis (R-IL)

  • Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO)

  • Yvette Herrell (R-NM)

  • Tom O'Halleran (D-AZ)

  • Mike Garcia (R-CA)

  • Nanette Barragan (D-CA)

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