Ironically, Christie Could Doom Haley's Chance To Go One On One Against Trump
Super Tuesday is March 5— Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. The day before is North Dakota’s caucus. But by then, Trump will be close to wrapping the whole thing up. The Iowa caucus is coming right up— January 15 and the most recent polling, Fox’s released yesterday, is pretty close to the recent polling averages— Trump way out front, Haley gaining on DeSantis for a very distant second place. Ramaswamy and Christie are in single digits and going nowhere.:
A week later comes the first actual primary: New Hampshire. Haley and Christie have made some headway against Trump, but not enough. The newest poll, again, released yesterday is by St. Anselm College:
Trump- 44%
Haley- 30%
Christie- 12%
DeSantis- 6%
Ramaswamy- 5%
Is Christie going to use a third place finish in New Hampshire as a rationale for contesting the Nevada (and Virgin Islands) caucus on February 8 and then the February primaries in South Carolina and Michigan? Hard to imagine his quixotic bid will have any steam after New Hampshire. The RealClearPolitics polling average show him barely registering as a blip in South Carolina:
Trump- 49.2%
Haley- 19.6%
DeSantis- 11.2%
Ramaswamy- 3.6%
Christie- 3.6%
If those South Carolina results don’t change dramatically, Haley and DeSantis will be facing a Michigan primary that Trump has all wrapped up 3 days later and wondering if they should even go on to Super Tuesday, that Trump is clearly going to sweep. For Haley, a loss in her home state (likely) could be fatal. Yesterday, Shelby Talcott reported that “By the time South Carolina actually rolls around, the race could look very different. Trump and his allies have largely refrained from attacking Haley thus far, instead seeing Ron DeSantis as the larger threat. That’s already changing. Haley, who has focused on rising above the non-Trump candidates rather than attacking the former president directly, would also have to change her approach to confront the man himself.”
“What these candidates have to do to get within striking distance in any of the three early states— whether it’s Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina— is give voters who have been comfortable supporting President Trump for the past decade a reason to not vote for him this time,” Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist who previously worked as Haley’s deputy chief of staff, told Semafor. “That means they have to sharpen contrast messages in this campaign and try to peel off supporters.”
The political environment would be different as well. Voters, who are historically prone to huge swings in polls once voting starts, would be paying more attention. Depending on how well she does in earlier races— and whether she’s fully cleared the field— she may be riding a raft of glowing John McCain 2000-esque horse race coverage or continued skepticism about her ability to carry on beyond the state.
“There’s a month between New Hampshire and South Carolina,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican campaign veteran who most recently worked on Scott’s presidential run. “That allows storylines to form, people to leave the race, things to happen. So that is also a very big runway. I think there is a path, absolutely.”
The hope for Haley is that there’s a considerable pool of “soft” Trump supporters whose minds are not fully made up. Logan McVey, a Republican political consultant, argued that despite Trump’s current popularity in the polls, a lot of voters are still waiting to see who emerges as a credible alternative. Haley’s familiarity in the state could matter a lot in that scenario.
“I think her proving viability in Iowa and then confirming it in New Hampshire just kicks the door wide open in South Carolina,” McVey said. “If you’re the Trump people, that’s what you have to be terrified of, right?”
One potential advantage for Haley: The state’s open primary. With President Biden’s own path to the nomination still looking non-competitive, there could be more room to court left-leaning voters who might be interested in taking a swipe at Trump by backing her despite her conservative platform. Already voters outside the GOP are a major focus in New Hampshire, where independents have long played a significant role in primaries.
And where does that leave Christie? Still chugging along, howling epithets at Trump from the side of the stage? He’s now being seen as siphoning enough votes away from Haley in New Hampshire to guarantee Trump wins the one state where a loss looks even remotely possible. He’s facing pressure to call it a day. He refuses. “Christie himself,” wrote Alex Isenstadt, “has called Trump a ‘dictator,’ a ‘petulant child’ and a ‘crazed lunatic.’ And Christie has gone after his rivals for their reluctance to take on Trump, saying they are ‘afraid to offend’ the former president.”
Isenstadt let Christie explain why he doesn’t want to drop out and let Haley consolidate the vote against Trump: “‘[H]ere’s my problem. If I were to drop out and support Nikki Haley, I have no confidence— no confidence— in the fact that she’ll make the case against Trump,’ Christie said. Even if he did drop out, he said, ‘not all of my voters are going to go to her, because a lot of the people who are voting for me are voting for me because I’ve had the guts to stand up to Trump.’”
But making it all the way to Super Tuesday just to keep hissing at Trump from the sidelines as DeSantis and Haley are endorsing the former president? Hard to imagine. And it wasn’t helped yesterday, when a judge in Maine ruled against his attempt to get onto that state’s Super Tuesday ballot. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows had already excluded him because he only turned in 844 signatures out of teh 2,000 required. Another platform excluded for Christie to bark at Trump from.
Wonder what caused that conniption in Trumpville today? The American Research Group released a new poll of New Hampshire likely Republican primary voters and… Nikki Haley had closed the gap between herself an Señor T to within the margin of error. Meanwhile, DeSantis’ crooked SuperPAC, Never Back Down, just keeps backing down and has now canceled all planned TV advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire just weeks before voting begins. Think any slimy little fascist in high heels is planning to suspend his campaign soon?DeSantis is still besting Ramaswamy by a point in this poll. It's incredible how consistently voters seem to just detest DeSantis the better they get to know him. I wonder what's wrong with Floridians! No one likes Ramaswamy much either.)
Trump- 33%
Haley- 29%
Christie- 13%
DeSantis- 6%
Ramaswamy- 5%
Undecided- 12%