Yahoo and The Economist released polls conducted for them by YouGov today. The results on identical questions aren’t the same. For example, each poll included “If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?” It was asked of registered voters and in both cases, the Democrats were leading. The Economist reports that the Democrats would get 44% and the Republicans would get 38%. The Yahoo poll shows the Democrats getting 45% and the Republicans 40%. It looks better for the Republicans (in the Yahoo poll) when the question is asked of voters who say they “definitely will vote.” Then the Democrats share rises to 48% and the Republican share goes up to 45%.
Using the poll published by The Economist— and only considering registered voters— let’s look at some of the factors that are playing into the Democratic lead. For example, Trump continues to praise Putin, but 80% of registered votes have an unfavorable opinion of him (and just 15% have favorable opinions of him). Even among Republican voters, Putin’s unfavorable number is 80%.
37% of registered voters think that the FBI executing a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago was not justified, including:
7% of Democrats
36% of independents
74% of Republicans
47% of registered voters say Trump should face criminal charges, including:
77% of Democrats
39% of Independents
11% of Republicans
When asked “do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Courts ruling that there is no constitutional right to an abortion?” 49% disapproved and just 40% approved. Breakdown:
Democrats- 71% disapprove, 21% approve
Independents- 52% disapprove, 34% approve
Republicans- 22% disapprove, 69% approve
Asked whether or not they want Trump to run for president in 2024, just 30% of registered voted said they do and 58% said they don’t. Who wants to see him run? 59% of Republicans, 25% of independents and 15% of Democrats (presumably many of whom understand he would be the easiest candidate to beat).
Respondents were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable option of various politicians:
Biden- 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable
Trump- 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable
Kamala- 41% favorable, 52% unfavorable
Democratic Party- 45% favorable, 50% unfavorable
Republican Party- 41% favorable, 54% unfavorable
The Democrats have achieved what they always aim for. They are the lesser of two evils in the minds of the voters.
And then there’s the much-discussed question of candidate quality. Thanks to Mitch McConnell admitting that Trump and MAGA saddled the GOP will some real stinkers in the Senate races— Mehmet Oz (PA), Herschel Walker (GA), Blake Masters (AZ), Kelly Tshibaka (AK), JD Vance (OH), Tiffany Smiley (WA), Ted Budd (NC), Adam Laxalt (NV) and probably Don Bolduc (NH)— most of that discussion revolved around the Senate. But it isn’t any different in gubernatorial races. It’s generally accepted that Trumpist imbecile Kari Lake (AZ) is the worst candidate running for governor this cycle, but she’s getting a run for her money from several others, like Doug Mastriano (R-PA), Dan Cox (R-MD), Tim Michels (R-WI), Geoff “Iron Fist” Diehl (R-MA), Paul LePage (R-ME) and especially crackpot Tudor Dixon (R-MI), who stumbled into the GOP nomination, with Trump’s help, when the legitimate candidates were all disqualified for handing in fraudulent nominating petitions.
Reporting for the Detroit News today, Craig Mauger wrote that a new poll shows Gretchen Whitmer not just way ahead, but expanding her lead. “The statewide survey of 600 likely voters in the battleground state found that 48% supported Whitmer, a former state lawmaker from East Lansing, while 35% backed Dixon, a political commentator and first-time candidate from Norton Shores. About 4% of likely voters said they would vote for a third-party candidate and 13% said they were undecided… [T]he Democratic incumbent has maintained a significant fundraising advantage and the Democratic Governors Association has poured millions of dollars into the state to fund TV advertisements criticizing Dixon's stance on abortion. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, which had protected access to abortion nationally for nearly 50 years. Since then, Whitmer has vowed to "fight like hell" to support abortion rights, while Dixon spoke out in opposition to abortion, including in situations involving rape and incest.”