Which Dem Will Be Best To Replace Iowa Republican Joni "We're all Going To Die" Ernst In The Senate?

So Far The DSCC Doesn't Have It's Thumb On The Scale

Scholten, Sage and Wahls— much better than Ernst

On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal published a piece about how much damage Joni Ernst’s viral “We’re all going to die” gaffe is causing the GOP, both in Iowa and nationally. Some say she may not even run for reelection. In the wake of her remarks, even though the state has trended more red during Trump’s time on the national stage, Cook  moved Ernst’s race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican… Heading into the election, Ernst faces political pressure on both her left and right flanks. Former state Sen. Jim Carlin, a staunch conservative who failed in a 2022 primary challenge of Sen. Chuck Grassley, has announced plans to challenge her. Several Democrats are competing ahead of a June 2026 primary for the right to challenge Ernst in November 2026. The best-known Democratic challenger so far is state Rep. J.D. Scholten, a minor-league baseball pitcher. Other announced Democrats are state Sen. Zach Wahls and Nathan Sage, former director of a local chamber of commerce and a Marine Corps veteran.”

Blue America has endorsed Scholten several times in the past and he’s done a good job as a candidate and in the state House and I assumed we’d endorse him again. And then a trustworthy friend of mine told me that Nathan Sage is more of a progressive and more of a natural Blue America candidate. I was surprised and flummoxed for the past couple of weeks. This morning, I decided to ask 4 of the AI models to each take a deep dive and tell me which is more progressive. Surprisingly, there was no consensus— until I added in the “other” candidate running for the seat, former state Senate minority leader Zach Wahls.

Grok is Elon Musk’s model but he’s pretty good at research. He said that “research suggests Nathan Sage is likely the more progressive candidate for Iowa's Senate seat, based on his detailed platform. JD Scholten also shows progressive leanings, especially on healthcare, but his positions are less comprehensive. The evidence leans toward Sage due to his broader policy scope, though both candidates appeal to working-class issues.” Before I added Wahls’ name into the mix, Grok said that “Sage's platform includes specific progressive policies such as raising the minimum wage, expanding unions, negotiating drug costs, and supporting LGBTQ+ and women's rights. JD Scholten, while critical of Medicaid cuts and associated with Bernie Sanders, lacks a detailed policy list, with his stances inferred from past interviews and statements. Given Sage's more comprehensive approach, he seems likely to be the more progressive candidate. He’s a mechanic, Marine veteran, and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce president, Sage grew up in a Mason City trailer park and emphasizes his working-class roots. He announced his candidacy in April, positioning himself as a ‘different Democrat’ focused on working-class issues. His platform aims to fight for veterans, raise wages, and lower healthcare and childcare costs. Scholten, a state representative since 2023 and minor-league baseball pitcher for the Sioux City Explorers, announced his Senate run in June, prompted by Ernst's dismissive comments on Medicaid cuts. Described as a ‘prairie populist,’ he focuses on working-class issues and was campaigned for by Bernie Sanders in 2018.”

To determine progressiveness, we analyzed each candidate's platform, focusing on policies related to economic justice, social equity, healthcare, environmental protection, and governance reform.

Sage's platform, detailed on his campaign website, includes a wide range of progressive policies, summarized in the following table:

These policies align strongly with progressive values, emphasizing economic justice (e.g., minimum wage, union support), social equity (e.g., LGBTQ+ rights, disability rights), and environmental protection.

Scholten's policy positions are less explicitly detailed, inferred from interviews, articles, and past campaigns. Key progressive stances include:

• Healthcare: Strongly opposes Medicaid cuts, criticizing Ernst's "we’re all going to die" remark as disrespectful to Iowans. In a 2018 interview, he highlighted healthcare as a top priority, noting its impact on rural communities, such as farmers' wives working full-time for insurance and the aging farmer population.

• Immigration: Supports DACA and immigration reform, emphasizing immigrants' importance in red counties, contrasting with his 2018 opponent's "absolutely no amnesty" stance.

• Rural Issues: Focuses on rural broadband to maintain independence and connectivity, and job creation to build an "Iowa new economy," addressing brain drain to cities like Minneapolis.

  
  

However, Scholten's current campaign website lacks a detailed policy section, and he did not complete Ballotpedia's 2020 Candidate Connection survey or Vote Smart's 2024 Political Courage Test, limiting direct comparison.

Both candidates appeal to working-class Iowans, but Sage's platform is more comprehensive and explicitly progressive, covering a broader range of issues with specific actions. Scholten's progressive credentials are evident, particularly on healthcare and immigration, but his positions are less detailed, relying on past statements and associations. Sage's focus on union support, environmental protection, and governance reform (e.g., ending insider trading) gives him an edge in progressive alignment.

Based on the available information, Nathan Sage is likely the more progressive candidate due to his detailed platform aligning with progressive values across multiple policy areas. While JD Scholten shows progressive leanings, particularly on healthcare and immigration, his lack of a comprehensive current platform makes it harder to compare directly. This analysis suggests Sage's broader policy scope makes him the more progressive choice for Iowa Senate in 2026.

When I threw Wahls’ name into the mix, Grok said that “Compared to Nathan Sage and JD Scholten, Wahls appears to be the most progressive candidate based on his explicit policy priorities, extensive advocacy for LGBTQ+ rights, and alignment with progressive values like healthcare reform and workers' rights. Sage has a detailed progressive platform, but Wahls' broader advocacy and policy focus give him a slight edge. Scholten's positions are less comprehensive, making him the least progressive of the three.

Grok added that Wahls’ youth (age 33) and social media presence pose risks, as seen in 2025 when Democratic operatives circulated his 2011 Reddit posts, highlighting potential vulnerabilities for younger candidates. His ousting as Senate Minority Leader in 2023 over staff restructuring decisions sparked intra-party tension, but he remains a prominent figure. Scholten’s “prairie populist” appeal resonates in rural areas, while Sage’s veteran status strengthens his working-class narrative. Wahls’ urban base and national profile may limit his rural reach compared to Scholten but enhance his progressive credentials. Wahls is likely the most progressive candidate for Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate race among the three but Sage’s detailed platform is comparably progressive, particularly on economic issues; Wahls’ broader advocacy gives him a slight edge. JD Scholten, while aligned with progressive healthcare and immigration stances, has a less detailed platform, making him the least progressive of the trio. For voters prioritizing progressive values, Wahls’ combination of policy depth and social justice advocacy makes him the standout choice.”

I turned to OpenAI (Chat GPT) with the same two questions and got a different response. “Scholten is more conventionally progressive on social safety nets, healthcare, and grassroots organizing. His entry was catalyzed by specific policy opposition. Sage, meanwhile, brings a harder-edged, populist-progressive style, centered on corporate opposition, wage fairness, and healthcare reform. He resonates with anti-establishment voters and shows early signs of polling strength, though his policy depth on programmatic issues like SNAP/Medicaid is less developed in public statements. In terms of policy substance, Scholten currently leans more progressive on social programs. But in rhetoric and economic populist positioning, Sage is arguably more radical and confrontational toward elites.”

But when I added Wahls, Chat GPT said that “On policy substance and reform depth, Zach Wahls currently offers the most comprehensive progressive portfolio: robust social safety net protection, healthcare access, workforce support, housing protections, plus justice and political system reforms.

Scholten remains firmly progressive, especially on social programs and grassroots organizing— but with a steadier, less radical style. Sage brings high-energy populism, with strong anti-corporate framing and healthcare pricing goals— but lacks detailed stances on broader social welfare or structural reform compared to Wahls.

Then I turned to Claude, the Anthropic AI model, who immediately declared Scholten more progressive than Sage. “Scholten appears to be the more progressive of the two candidates based on his established policy positions and legislative record. Here's what makes him the more progressive choice:

Healthcare: Scholten supports a public option and eventually Medicare-for-all and has made healthcare a central focus of his campaigns. He advocates for transitioning to ‘universal healthcare’ and ensuring affordable healthcare access.

Environmental Policy: Scholten emphasizes that ‘protecting and preserving our planet should be a national and global priority’ and wants to ‘invest in green technologies and infrastructure, like wind and solar energy.’ He sees Iowa's wind energy leadership as an opportunity for job creation while protecting the environment.

• Workers' Rights: His platform includes ‘passing paid family and medical leave’ and supporting workers against exploitation.

• Civil Rights: He emphasizes ensuring ‘full civil rights and liberties’ and promoting ‘affordable housing.’ 

• Agricultural Policy: He focuses on ‘antitrust reform and putting more money into the pockets of Iowa farmers,’ showing a progressive approach to rural economic issues.”

He said that “Sage brings a different profile to the race. He's described as ‘a mechanic and Marine vet”’ from ‘a Mason City trailer park,’ emphasizing his working-class background. In his campaign launch, he emphasized building a party that ‘people like me will actually want to be a part of,’ suggesting a focus on working-class appeal rather than specific progressive policy positions.”

The Verdict

Based on the available information, J.D. Scholten is clearly the more progressive candidate. He has a detailed policy platform that includes Medicare-for-all, aggressive climate action, workers' rights, and civil rights protections. Scholten also has legislative experience as a current Iowa House Representative and has run multiple campaigns, giving him a more established progressive record.

Nathan Sage appears to be positioning himself more as an outsider candidate focused on working-class appeal, but hasn't articulated specific progressive policy positions to the same degree as Scholten. While both candidates are challenging Ernst from the left, Scholten's platform aligns more closely with progressive priorities on healthcare, climate, and social issues.

I then added “what about Zach Wahls— as progressive as the other two?”

Based on my research, I can now provide you with a comprehensive comparison of all three candidates. Zach Wahls brings a different profile to the progressive landscape in this race. He appears to occupy a middle position between the other two candidates in terms of progressive positioning. Here's what we know about his progressive credentials:

• Civil Rights Background: Wahls first gained prominence in 2011 when, as a 19-year-old, he spoke on the Iowa House floor about his two mothers as legislators debated a proposal to ban same-sex marriage in the state.This established him as an early LGBTQ+ rights advocate.

• Wahls said he expects economic concerns to be the top issue in the 2026 election. He also highlighted health care issues— including Iowa's high cancer rates— education, and protecting Social Security.

• Anti-Corruption: In the legislature, he's fought against powerful special interests exploiting Iowans, led the effort to ban politicians from insider trading.”

Progressive Ranking: Most to Least Progressive

1. J.D. Scholten - Most Progressive

   • Explicitly supports Medicare-for-all

   • Strong climate action platform with specific green energy investments

   • Comprehensive workers' rights agenda including paid family leave

   • Detailed civil rights platform

   • Anti-monopoly/antitrust focus

2. Zach Wahls - Moderately Progressive

   • Strong civil rights background and LGBTQ+ advocacy

   • Consistent anti-conservative voting record in the Iowa Senate

   • Focus on economic issues, healthcare, and Social Security

   • Anti-corruption efforts

   • More establishment/institutional approach

3. Nathan Sage - Least Defined Progressively

   • Working-class appeal and background

   • Less detailed policy platform available

   • Positioning as outsider candidate

   • Specific progressive policy positions unclear

Wahls represents a more institutionally-minded progressive approach compared to Scholten's more explicitly left-wing policy platform. While Wahls has a strong civil rights background and consistently progressive voting record, Scholten articulates more specific progressive policy goals like Medicare-for-all and aggressive climate action. Wahls seems to be positioning himself as a pragmatic progressive focused on economic issues and good governance, while Scholten is running on a more comprehensive progressive policy agenda.

I then turned to Gemini, Google’s AI model, who said “Both Nathan Sage and J.D. Scholten exhibit progressive stances on various issues. A ‘deep dive’ into their stated platforms reveals areas of overlap and some differences in emphasis. Sage's platform strongly emphasizes economic populism and fighting corporate power. His key progressive stances include:

• Workers' Rights and Wages: He advocates for raising the minimum wage to a ‘livable wage’ and is a strong proponent of expanding and strengthening unions, explicitly supporting the PRO Act. He aims to put more power into the hands of American workers.

• Healthcare Reform: Sage is critical of the current healthcare system, citing ‘parasitic price gouging’ by insurance and pharmaceutical companies. He calls for the U.S. government to negotiate drug costs to lower prices and wants to end private equity's ‘price gouging’ of seniors in healthcare facilities.

• Campaign Finance Reform: He directly addresses the influence of money in politics, stating, ‘No More Billionaires Buying Our Elections.’ He proposes banning individuals from spending millions on elections, even suggesting a constitutional amendment, and refuses to take money from corporations.

• Tax Reform: Sage advocates for cutting taxes for the working class and making billionaires pay their ‘fair share’ of taxes, criticizing the ‘rigged tax code’ that disproportionately burdens working Americans.

J.D. Scholten, a current Iowa State Representative, also presents a progressive agenda, often framing it in terms of fighting for Iowans against special interests. His progressive positions include:

• Universal Healthcare: Scholten has publicly stated his plan to fight for universal healthcare.

• Economic Fairness: He emphasizes fixing the economy and securing democracy from "billionaires and special interests." He has been particularly vocal against cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, arguing that such cuts are made "so billionaires can have a bigger tax break."

• Anti-Monopoly Stance: Scholten is known for his "anti-monopoly crusade" and often speaks about the need to address corporate monopolies.

• Representation for Working People: His decision to run was reportedly spurred by what he perceived as Senator Joni Ernst's disrespect towards Iowans regarding proposed Medicaid cuts, highlighting his focus on advocating for the common person.

Both candidates clearly align with the progressive wing of the Democratic party. It's difficult to definitively declare one as ‘more’ progressive than the other, as both demonstrate strong progressive bona fides. Ultimately, both candidates offer a progressive alternative, and voters would need to examine their full platforms, track records, and communication styles to determine which candidate's specific approach aligns most closely with their own definition of ‘more progressive.’”

Again, when I asked about Wahls the response was that he’s “also a progressive candidate and has a strong record to support that designation, particularly in the Iowa State Senate where he has served. Wahls brings legislative experience as an Iowa state Senator, where he served as Senate Democratic Leader for a period. This gives him a track record of legislative action and leadership within the state, which is distinct from Sage's primary background as an activist and Scholten's experience as a State Representative and past congressional candidate. While all three share progressive economic goals, Wahls has a more prominent and long-standing public profile as an advocate for LGBTQ+ rights, making social justice issues a very visible part of his progressive identity. Like Sage and Scholten, Wahls is clearly focused on economic fairness, addressing the high cost of living, and combating corporate power. His emphasis on "reinstate workers' rights" aligns well with Sage's strong pro-union stance.”

Gemini, as is its wont, refused to say which of the three is more progressive, only that “Iowa Democratic primary voters will have a choice among several genuinely progressive candidates with slightly different experiences and areas of primary focus.” Yeah, yeah, yeah... that's Gemini.

Interesting to read but, you can rest assured, AI won’t be getting a vote in selecting the candidates we endorse. In this case, all 3 candidates sound great and it’s possible we won’t endorse any of them until after the primary. We’re not sure yet. What's important is that the each of the three sounds like a real step up from Ernst and that the DSCC has stuck some GOP-lite turd into the race, at least not yet.