Paul Ryan— and presumably John Boehner— have told Kevin McCarthy than if he accepts the fascists’ demand for a “vacate the chair” rules change, he might as well not bother becoming Speaker. So far he’s held firm against that particular demand, advanced most aggressively by the 5 Mousketeers— Matt Gaetz (FL), Matt Rosendale (MT), Andy Biggs (AZ),Ralph Norman (SC) and Bob Good (VA)— who now say they are voting for or against McCarthy as a bloc. Gaetz has also said “nothing” will make him vote for McCarthy who, he has continuously pointed out, is not fit for the job.
Now these 5 fascists are a different group of fascists who sent McCarthy the letter last Friday laying out some specific demands. The Friday fascists— Scott Perry (PA), Paul Gosar (AZ), Chip Roy (TX), Andrew Clyde (GA), Eli Crane (AZ), Dan Bishop (NC) and Andy Ogles (TN)— were adamant about restoring any member’s ability to make a Motion to Vacate the Chair and force a vote on removing the Speaker. They are also adamant about GOP leaders or their affiliated PACs getting involved in primaries against fascist candidates, even if those candidates are obviously unelectable. Other demands include more fascists as committee chairs besides just Gym Jordan and more fascists on the Rules Committee. Thery also want to ban earmarks, even though the GOP conference just voted overwhelmingly in favor of earmarks. Let me see… what else did they demand? Oh yes, to use the “must pass” bill to blackmail the administration to accept unpopular fascist priorities (like defunding Medicare and Social Security and outlawing abortion nationally… all their hated ideas). They also plan to pass a rule— the Holmes Rule— that allows Congress to zero out the salaries of government officials they don’t like in spending bills. And then there’s their CutGo plan instead of PayGo. CutGo is meant to force spending cuts to programs like Social Security and Medicare and other programs that help the working class.
Yesterday, reporting for the Washington Post, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Theodoric Meyer and Tobi Raji tried explaining how McCarthy is struggling to quell discontent. Instead of spending all their time on Hunter Biden’s dick pics, “ongoing dissent within the GOP ranks is a reoccurring theme sucking up most of the oxygen on Capitol Hill, forcing party leaders to address the discontent” even though “A small band of GOP members is promising they will never support McCarthy, raising questions about whether he’ll be able to find the needed votes no matter how far he bends.” (That’s the Gaetz’s 5 Musketeers.) “The dynamic is a preview of how the emboldened right flank of the Republican Party might exercise leverage next year in the closely divided chambers— even as moderate Republicans say the electorate wants Congress to get things done.”
There are no moderates, but the trio means vaguely mainstream conservatives. They hinted that McCarthy— not exactly known for having ever shown any backbone on anything— is already giving in on the fascists’ demand for the “Vacate The Chair” rule change. “McCarthy,” they wrote, “was adamantly opposed to bringing back the rule, but because some House Republicans continue to insist on its restoration as he tries to lock up support, the rule change is now part of the discussion. Negotiations are ongoing, and it’s possible the two sides could compromise by increasing the motion’s threshold from a single lawmaker to a few dozen or more. Moderate Republicans, meanwhile, say the motion to vacate is a red line.” (Remember, by “moderate,” these 3 clowns mean “conservative” as opposed to fascist.)
At its weekly lunch, the Republican Governance Group, which includes nearly 50 members, agreed to oppose any House rules package that includes a motion to vacate, according to a member who participated in the discussion and spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private talks. Their opposition would easily doom any attempt by the right to force McCarthy’s hand.
“There is no plan B,” Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) said, referring to what happens if McCarthy doesn’t get the votes to become speaker, indicating they will back no one other than McCarthy.
It’s unclear which side will blink first— or if either will.
“Currently you have a group of members who are testing out the limits of their power,” Newt Gingrich, the former Republican House speaker, said in an interview. “And they’re rapidly going to collide with a group of other members, and they’re going to discover that blackmail is a very dangerous game. If five conservatives can blackmail the conference, so can five moderates.”
McCarthy has two paths for dealing with the Freedom Caucus, Gingrich said.
One is to negotiate over the motion to vacate and the Freedom Caucus’s other demands. The second is to stare the caucus down. If McCarthy fails to win enough votes on the first ballot during next month’s speaker vote on the floor, “then you go to a second vote and a third vote and, at some point, people realize that the only endgame is then Kevin McCarthy,” Gingrich said.
In addition to the rules discussion with the conference, moderates are meeting with McCarthy this afternoon. McCarthy has until Jan. 3 to figure it all out and find at least 218 votes.
Everyone knows that McCarthy put the Republican Governance Group up to it and no one is afraid of them or their toothless yapping. And everyone knows that eventually McCarthy will fold. So what’s going on with all these wheel-spinning? This morning, Politico’s Playbook team highlighted the kabuki theater nature of the House GOP drama. “By using moderates as a critical tool for countering conservatives,” they wrote, “McCarthy appears to be carefully positioning himself to say to his right flank: Sorry, your own colleagues won’t support such a demand. Having them play ‘bad cop’ on anything from the motion to vacate to, possibly, a future debt ceiling showdown, for example, could set McCarthy up to be seen as the ‘good cop’— a reasonable dealmaker trying to find a path forward between warring factions.” Except no one is stupid enough to fall for this. It’s all completely transparent to everyone— except maybe the real dullards like Marjorie Traitor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
So… the question really is “When does McCarthy offer a deal? There is a give-a-mouse-a-cookie fear that if he negotiates right now, conservatives will just move on to new demands in the weeks before the Jan. 3 speakership vote… The entire dynamic illustrates that even if McCarthy wins the gavel, he is going to be pulled between two factions of his conference that disagree more ferociously on strategy than on policy itself. While conservatives [they mean— but are afraid to use the word— fascists] are expected to embrace shutdown fights and debt ceiling brinkmanship, the larger group of pragmatists [conservatives] will want to govern. A ‘good cop, bad cop’ approach might be enough to get him the gavel. But whether it will be enough to balance the competing interests of the two factions going forward with such a slim majority is another story.”
Early this morning a couple of writers from The Hill laid out 7 scenarios for the way McCarthy’s speakership bid is likely to go, even though everyone already knows that he will give in to the fascists demands and become speaker. The silliest scenario: “A Democrat squeaks in.” It is silly but it could happen. How? Lauren Boebert smuggles a gun onto the House floor and shoots mainstream anti-fascist Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Don Bacon (NE), Chris Smith (NJ) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL) before being shot herself— 14 bullets found in her carcass— by the Capitol Police. All 5 die and the Democratic majority elects Hakeem Jeffries speaker. Short of that… forget that scenario. Or the Democrats get behind a mainstream Republican with 10 or so Republicans and elect someone like Fitzpatrick or Bacon. Gottheimer, the least liked and least respected member of the Democratic caucus, is pushing this. This is almost as likely as the Lauren Boebert shooting theory.
Other silly scenarios: The Republicans back a non-member for speaker, say… Donald J Trump. Gaetz plans to nominate him. Or McCarthy drops out and nominates Scalise or Gym Jordan as a compromise candidate. Then there are some semi-serious scenarios:
House agrees to make McCarthy Speaker with a plurality of votes
If the House Speakership election drags on for multiple votes with McCarthy in the lead but not securing enough votes for a majority, the House could agree to adopt a resolution to declare that a Speaker can be elected by a plurality rather than by a majority.
That would require cooperation from Democrats, and it is not clear whether they would support such a resolution.
But there is precedent for the House agreeing to elect a Speaker by plurality, as it has happened twice before in House history.
The first time was in 1849, after the House had been in session for 19 days and held 59 ballots for Speaker. It happened again in 1856, when the House had taken 129 Speaker votes without any candidate winning a majority.
With so much uncertainty, some lawmakers are already bracing for a long day on Jan. 3.
“I’m obviously observing it from the other side, but all the intel I get from my Republican friends is that: expect it to go late,” said Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA). “And I plan to wear my comfortable suit.”
Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL), a top “Never Kevin” Republican, floated that the Speaker election could take months— rivaling the longest-ever Speaker election in 1855, which took two months and 133 ballots.
“We may see the cherry blossoms before we have a Speaker,” Gaetz said, referring to the blooms that emerge in March or April in Washington, D.C.
McCarthy elected Speaker because of Democratic absences
A Speaker is elected by a majority of all of those present and voting, meaning that McCarthy does not necessarily need 218 votes to win the Speakership. If some members are absent or vote “present,” it lowers the threshold from 218.
Pelosi won the Speakership in 2021 with 216 votes due to vacancies and absences. And Boehner also won the Speakership with just 216 votes in 2015, when 25 members did not vote. Many Democrats were attending a funeral for the late New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D) that day.
If the Speakership election drags on and Democrats tire of the repeated ballots, it is possible that Democratic members miss subsequent votes, which could lower the majority threshold just enough for McCarthy to squeak out a victory.
Illness, weather or other unforeseen circumstances could also affect member attendance on Jan. 3. And because Republicans are planning to eliminate the proxy voting installed by Democrats during the pandemic, lawmakers would not have the option of voting remotely for Speaker.
In the closely divided House, with 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats and one vacancy, McCarthy needs 218 votes if every member votes for a Speaker candidate.
The Hill agrees with my own prediction, though— McCarthy folds to all the fascists’ demands-- or at least a face-saving version of all the demands-- and is elected speaker. (Ralph Norman will abandon the 5 Musketeers in return for a goodie.) McCarthy will be the weakest and least effective speaker in American history before the Republicans replace him with an outright fascist. presumably wrestling coach Gym Jordan.
