Other Than Hardcore MAGAts, Americans Reject Political Violence
On Monday, Bill Kristol urged his readers to not become inured to Trump’s “repulsive statements, his execrable behavior, his contemptible character”… and to watch this clip from Trump’s MAGA rally near Dayton over the weekend:
“Please rise,” booms the announcer, “for the horribly and unfairly treated January 6 hostages.” Then, as the speaker system plays a recorded mash-up of the national anthem sung by participants in the January 6th insurrection, Trump melodramatically salutes.
He salutes the insurrectionists.
Trump doubled down once he took the microphone. Those duly tried and convicted for rioting on January 6th, in prison for their violent effort to overturn a free and fair election, Trump described as “unbelievable patriots” and “hostages.” Once again, he indicated he’d pardon them.
The promise to pardon is noteworthy. Trump knows what he’s doing. He abused the pardon power in his first term. Now he’s running on a much broader promise to pardon those who have acted lawlessly and violently on his behalf.
This promise of pardon is not so much about the past. It’s about the future.
What constraints would there be on those who would serve in a Trump second term? The rule of law? The courts? No problem. Go ahead, follow Trump’s wishes rather than the law’s constraints. Here’s a presidential pardon.
And for those on the outside, the paramilitary types Trump will have no hesitation in rallying to intimidate opponents and enforce his wishes and his will? No problem. Go ahead and break a few laws. Here’s a presidential pardon.
So the promise to abuse the pardon power is one of many reasons to expect, if Trump wins, a truly reckless and lawless administration. An unconstrained pardon power can overcome many guardrails.
…[T]o see Trump saluting the insurrectionists, the Americans he persuaded to violently break the law in the service of undermining the Constitution, was unnerving.
But perhaps also clarifying.
Trump salutes the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol.
Trump supports criminals.
The rest of us support the republic.
A couple of months ago, CBS News polled Americans on their feelings about the J-6 insurrection. 78% of Americans disapprove of the rioters. 62% of Americans oppose Trump’s promise to pardon the rioters, although only a third of Republicans do.
Even a majority of Republicans disapprove, 32% “strongly” and 38% “somewhat.” But 43% of admitted-MAGAts actually approve of the Jan 6th violent insurrection. And 37% of Republicans still insist, despite all the testimony and guilty pleas and court findings, that the murderous MAGA-criminals who forced their way into the Capitol were just people pretending to be Trump supporters! 37%! That's a lot of crazy! A lot of stoopid!
Trump haș fully embraced the insurrection of course and has made it a cornerstone of his doomed campaign. A trio of AP reporters wrote about his desperation to rewrite history. He doesn’t just call those imprisoned “hostages,” he also calls them “unbelievable patriots” and “Having previously vowed to pardon the rioters, he promised to help them ‘the first day we get into office.’… In heaping praise on the rioters, Trump is shifting blame for his own role in the run-up to the bloody mob siege and asking voters to absolve hundreds of them— and himself— over the deadliest attack on a seat of American power in 200 years. At the same time, Trump’s allies are installing 2020 election-deniers to the RNC, further institutionalizing the lies that spurred the violence. That raises red flags about next year, when Congress will again be called upon to certify the vote. And they’re not alone. Republicans in Congress are embarking on a re-investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack that seeks to shield Trump of wrongdoing while lawmakers are showcasing side theories about why thousands of his supporters descended on Capitol Hill in what became a brutal scene of hand-to-hand combat with police.”
Taken together, it’s what those who study authoritarian regimes warn is a classic case of what’s called consolidation — where the state apparatus is being transformed around a singular figure, in this case Trump.
Jason Stanley, a philosophy professor at Yale, said in history the question comes up over and over again: How could people not have taken an authoritarian leader at his word about what was going to happen?
“Listen to Trump,” he said.
“When a coup against the democratic regime happens and it’s not punished, that is a very strong indicator of the end of the rule of law and the victory of that authoritarian movement,” he said.
“Americans have a hard time understanding that what happens in most of the world can happen here, too.”
On Monday, Dan Pfeiffer suggested Democrats can make Trump pay for his deranged embrace of the J-6 insurrection, while worrying about his signal at the MAGA rally in Dayton: “Now if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole— that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it.”
Pfeiffer argued that it wasn’t just a comment about the car industry, the excuse the MAGAts are making now. “The bloodbath comment is not new nor is it out of character. If you are arguing that Trump didn’t really mean bloodbath, you lost the forest for the trees a long time ago. He has threatened violence if he gets convicted or loses the election. Just a few weeks ago, Trump warned there would be a ‘civil war’ in the U.S. if he lost… Trump has political violence on the brain… [I]t’s worth reiterating that one of Donald Trump’s first acts— before he tackles costs, wages, or healthcare— will be to pardon violent criminals convicted for their role in trying to overthrow the U.S government.”
“If Trump wants to make justice for the January 6th rioters a centerpiece of the campaign,” continued Pfeiffer, “Democrats should welcome it. And if Trump were somehow convinced to stop talking about January 6th, Democrats should do everything in their power to put Trump’s role in fomenting the violence on that horrendous day front and center for every voter… What Trump is doing is very dangerous. Sure, a President pardoning people who committed crimes on his behalf is bad for democracy and the rule of law. However, the real danger of promising pardons to people who commit political violence is that it will beget more violence. Trump is promising a ‘get out of jail free’ card to people who act violently on his behalf. Imagine how someone hopped up on Right Wing propaganda and conspiracy theories might act if they have no fear of legal accountability and the hope of being hailed a hero by Trump. Ultimately, this is how we should frame Trump’s pardon promise and dangerous rhetoric around future political violence. A Navigator Research poll found that more than 80% of Americans are concerned about political violence today and in the future. Voters also see Republicans— and Trump— as more prone to political violence. Independents say Republicans are more prone to political violence than Democrats by a 15-point margin. The best argument is not that Trump was responsible for January 6th, but that he is actively encouraging similar political violence.”
Pfeiffer outlined a response to the fact that a Data for Progress poll found that 57% of Independents are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the January 6th attack.
Trump’s Support of Violence is an Example of His Extremism: Pardoning and saluting people who commit political violence is evidence of a dangerous level of extremism. These are candidates who will ban abortion, contraception, and IVF and cut Social Security and Medicare. January 6th and democracy are not top of mind for every voter, but Trump’s position on those issues can open the door to other arguments about the dangers of his extremism.
Trump is Focused on Himself: I haven’t seen any polling about Trump pardoning January 6th rioters on day one, but I am 100% positive that it would be incredibly unpopular. One of the best arguments against Trump is that he is only running for President to help himself, reward his friends and punish his enemies. Trump’s pledge to pardon violent criminals before helping the rest of us really helps tell that story.
Be Detailed About January 6th: Late last year, Bryan Bennett of Navigator Research outlined some advice on how to talk about January 6th. Here are the most resonating statements:
More than 2,000 rioters ultimately broke into the Capitol, many of whom vandalized and looted parts of the building (69 percent true, 72 percent concerning);
Approximately 140 police officers were assaulted by rioters (64 percent true, 71 percent concerning);
Five people died as a result of the events on January 6th, including Capitol police officers (60 percent true, 75 percent concerning); and,
More than a thousand people have been arrested for their actions on January 6th (62 percent true, 66 percent concerning).
Highlight the Day One Pledge: The fact that Trump wants to issue these pardons on his first day in office is very notable because it shows how important they are to him. Helping his violent political allies is more important to Trump than many of the issues that voters care a lot about — inflation, Social Security, health care etc.
