Trump Is Getting Closer To Replacing McCarthy

In return for all that ass-kissing, McCarthy got a joint fundraising committee with Trump that he controls-- basically permission to use Trump's name and pictures to raise money from America's fascists. But until yesterday Trump was unaware that McCarthy was using it to raise money for some of the Republican incumbents who voted to impeach Señor Trumpanzee. Trump found out when he was on the John Fredericks Show yesterday. Someone asked him about why he's helping raise money for 5 of the 10 House Republicans-- Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA), John Katko (NY), Peter Meijer (MI), David Valadao (CA) and Fred Upton (MI)-- who voted to impeach him.

Trump wasn't happy about it and got increasingly pissed off as he responded. "There are a few of those candidates in very, I would say, blue areas. I almost would rather have the Democrat win, to be honest with you, because we’re going to win a lot [of other seats]." None of them are in "very blue areas," although the California and New York swing districts lean Democratic. They're just areas where Trump did poorly. These are the districts with their PVIs and Trump's share of the 2020 vote:

• WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler) R+5 (Trump- 50.6%)

• NY-24 (John Katko) D+2 (Trump- 44.4%)

• MI-03 (Peter Meijer) R+5 (Trump- 50.6%)

• CA-21 (David Valadao) D+5 (Trump- 43.5%)

• MI-06 (Fred Upton) R+5 (Trump-51.3%)

Trump finished with the kind of threat that we all knew McCarthy would have to face sooner or later: "I’m going to see who [McCarthy's] funding and, if he is, I’ll stop the whole deal... I'll stop it." He also noted that McCarthy's pal Valadao is "Much more of a Democrat, probably, than a Republican" and that John Katko is "not popular."

Valadao is certainly not more of a Democrat than a Republican. But Trump's animosity towards him is probably going to lead to the end of his time in Congress. His top opponent, Delano Mayor Bryan Ossorio told me yesterday that "Valadao continues to show the vulnerability of his incumbency in the CA-21 race. He has three Republican opponents who are ready to split the vote because of his support of Trump’s impeachment, and, now, he faces the possibility of losing significant campaign funding-- if McCarthy listens to Trump like he usually does. Despite voting with Trump more than 98% of the time, Valadao and his consistent loyalty to Trump will not be enough for his party to support him. These developments will continue building a case for why a progressive Democrat can win-- put the people first."

Trump is correct about Katko though. He isn't very popular-- even if he is less disliked than Trump. The frontrunner in the race, Steven Holden, told me today that “NY 24 is the bluest district in America with a GOP member of Congress (D+9), but this is also an area with depressed voter turnout. Most of those non-voters are progressive Democrats. With all of that said, Kevin McCarthy needs John Katko to get the majority to flip Congress, and he knows that a progressive Democrat would spell doom for Katko for the reason we just stated. John Katko has been kissing the ring of McCarthy here of late, and he has abandoned his 'moderate' tendencies, as he now wants to fund the border wall. He is using his position as the ranking member on the House Homeland Security Committee to tout it on Fox News. Because of Trump, John Katko has lost support from all four county--Onondaga, Wayne, Cayuga, and Oswego-- Conservative Party committees. With fusion voting in NY, Katko must have their support. He is trying to kiss Trump’s ring via McCarthy. That would be politically fatal for him here in this district, as it stands. What Trump forgets is that we have major redistricting here in New York, and one of the maps would have me and Katko running in a newly created D+2 District, as Katko and I live in the same neighborhood. I want to be clear as a bell on this and go on record. Whereas we agree a Democrat should represent the great people of Central NY, we would never take an endorsement from the twice-impeached, insurrectionist, and wannabe strongman President. I do not know if Fran Conole would or not, but he is a Democrat that would be much more to Trump’s liking, since Fran did work for the Trump Administration in his civilian job."