Arizona And Wisconsin Lookin' Blue In '22
A couple of days ago, I was stunned to see Mandela Barnes ahead of Ron Johnson in a Marquette Law School poll— 51-44%. It looks like Wisconsin voters have finally woken up to what a disaster they have as a senator. And, in fact, last night, Fox New released a couple of polls, one of Wisconsin registered voters and one of Arizona registered voters. The conclusion is something McConnell has been talking about today: there’s is no red wave building, at least not in Senate races. First Wisconsin:
Fox pointed out that though Barnes is ahead, his advantage (4 points) is within the margin of error and that Johnson’s supporters are more enthusiastic. A great great many Barnes supporters say they will vote for him because they hate Johnson. Independents prefer Barnes two to one.
In Fox’s Arizona poll, Blake Masters is doing even worse than Johnson is. It looks like Mark Kelly is on his way to reelection— and that Katie Hobbs is going to beat nut-case fascist Kari “Fake” Lake in the gubernatorial race. The new Fox poll is in line with the trends tracked by FiveThirtyEight all summer, which show Kelly with an average 10.1 point lead over Masters:
Kelly’s lead in this poll is a solid 8 points. Part of the problem for Masters is how extreme he has painted himself. “Kelly’s lead,” wrote Victoria Balara, “comes from 95% support among Democrats. Masters fails to garner the same party loyalty, as only 82% of Republicans back him, with more than a handful defecting to Kelly (10%). Voters ages 65 and over (+15) and rural voters (+8), two groups that have leaned more conservative in the past, put their support behind the Democrat. Men (+8) and White evangelical Christians (+49) break for the Republican. Whites with no college degree, another voting bloc typically associated with the contemporary GOP base, splits: 45% for Kelly, 46% for Masters. The gender gap is prevalent, with more men supporting Masters by 8 points and more women preferring Kelly by 23 points. That gap could come from Arizona women disapproving of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade by more than 30 points (30% approve vs. 62% disapprove), while men split (45-46%). Overall, a narrow majority disapproves of the ruling (37-54%)… Meanwhile, Masters has an enthusiasm problem, as about 4 in 10 of his voters (43%) support him enthusiastically, while two-thirds (65%) of Kelly’s are excited about him. When it comes to personal ratings, Kelly is in the green by 6 points (51% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable), and Masters is underwater by 4 points (40% vs. 44%). Another 16% can’t rate Masters one way or the other.”
Balara also reported that “The same demographic trends apply to the gubernatorial race where there is a smaller gap, but still an edge for current Arizona Secretary of State and Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs over Republican Kari Lake (47% to 44%). That’s within the margin of error. Hobbs receives more support among Democrats (92%) than Lake does of Republicans (84%). Neither gubernatorial candidate breaks 50% when it comes to favorability ratings, but Hobbs is in positive territory by 8 points (46% favorable, 38% unfavorable) while Lake is underwater by 5 (41-46%).
The FiveThirtyEight trend tracker also shows Hobbs beating Lake over an average of summer polls— 48.5% to 41.5% (7 points). Lake, like Masters, is still running way to the right of the electorate, carrying on about putting Fauci in prison and putting cameras in classrooms so parents can object to anything they don't like about what teachers say. that goes over well with most Trump-oriented Republicans but it doesn't work for Democrats, independents or mainstream Republicans.
Last night, Susan Glasser introduced me to a new word to describe what Democrats are feeling in DC: Trumptimism. It’s based on the argument “that Trump’s continued hold over the Republican Party is actually good news for Democrats this fall— and beyond. Trump… is not so much killing off his political enemies as he is destroying his own host organism, the GOP itself… For the past several election cycles, nothing has united Democratic voters more than the chance to vote against him. And all summer Trump has been back in the news, thanks to revelations from testimony in the House’s January 6th hearings; the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, for classified documents improperly taken from the White House; and endless speculation about whether Trump will be indicted or run again for President— or both. ‘It awakened the anti-maga majority in the country.’”
A Democratic strategist told her that “his predictions for the long-term fate of the Trumpified GOP are bleak. Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the past eight Presidential elections, and Trump was the first incumbent President running for reëlection since Herbert Hoover to have his party lose the White House, Senate, and House in just four years… [D]ivisive primaries, such as the Wyoming election this week, are disastrous for the Republican Party in general elections— even if pro-Trump candidates beat out the few Liz Cheneys every time. ‘The Republican coalition is cracking.’ At this rate… the Trump party could even become just as much of a ‘noncompetitive national entity’ as the post-Hoover GOP of the nineteen-thirties and forties.”
I could see the-- if we had a Democratic Party that served the interests of the working families on this country, instead of one that serves the special interests nearly as shamelessly as the Republican Party does. These cruddy Democrats will never aspire for anything more than to be the lesser of two evils. Trump has permitted them to feel like they can't lose that equation.