As we've been noting, late Thursday, Jack Smith brought 3 additional charges against Trump in the stolen classified documents case, although still no treason charges. Adding to the 37 charges he already faces, Trump was slapped with another count of willful retention of national defense information and two more obstruction counts.
The couple of dozen Republicans in swing districts just see this as another horrible boulder on the path to their own reelection prospects— especially if the House extremists tied to Trump force McCarthy to bring Elise Stefanik’s and Marjorie Traitor Greene’s unhinged impeachment expungement proposals to a vote. Other than Trump and his closest allies, no one thinks this is a good idea. It definitely jeopardizes reelection prospects for enough GOP incumbents to hand the House majority back to the Democrats.
The idea is wildly popular with the Magadonian base and absolutely hated by normal voters... which makes it very tough on Members of Congress who won close races last year, like these 15, all but 4 of whom are freshmen:
John Duarte (CA) who won by less than half a point
Lauren Boebert (CO) who won by less than half a point
Zach Nunn (IA) who won by less than half a point
John James (MI) who won by less than half a point
Mike Lawler (NY) who won by less than a point
David Schweikert (AZ) who won by less than a point
Juan Ciscomani (AZ) who won by 1.4%
Brandon Williams (NY) who won by 1.6%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR) who won by 2.2%
Marc Molinaro (NY) who won by 2.2%
Don Bacon (NE) who won by 3.0%
Tom Kean (NJ) who won by 3.2%
David Valadao (CA) who won by 3.4%
Jen Kiggans (VA) who won by 3.4%
Anthony D’Esposito (NY) who won by 3.6%
Like everything the MAGAts force McCarthy to do, making the swing district Republicans vote for or against expungement is a no-win. If they vote against it, Trump’s base might refuse to vote for them and if they vote for expungement, normal people will vote against them. In many of these districts, Trump is immensely unpopular, nothing like how people feel about him in the QAnon mentality districts represented by extremists like Marjorie Traitor Greene (GA), Andy Biggs (AZ), Mary Miller (IL), Andrew Clyde (GA), Matt Gaetz (FL), Ronny Jackson (TX), Eric Burlison (MO), Matt Rosendale (MT), Russ Fulcher (ID), Diana Harshbarger (TN), Clay Higgins (LA), Harriet Hageman (WY), Gym Jordan (OH), Paul Gosar (AZ), Mike Collins (GA), Josh Brecheen (OK), Patrick McHenry (NC), Alex Mooney (WV), Jason Smith (MO), James Comer (KY) and Tim Burchett (TN).
On Thursday, Jared Gans reported that Don Bacon, “who represents a swing district in Nebraska that voted for Biden in 2020, is one of several GOP members representing battleground districts who have voiced frustration over the efforts… Schweikert told Politico that he would ‘probably not’ vote for a measure expunging the impeachments. His district narrowly voted for Biden in 2020 but has leaned more in favor of Democratic candidates overall in recent years.”
“This is not anything vulnerable Republicans want to talk about on the campaign trail,” said Doug Heye, a national Republican strategist. “They want to focus on all of those issues that have Biden’s popularity so low and not be pulled into some Trump loyalty blood oath.”
McCarthy indicated early in his Speakership that he would consider votes on expunging Trump’s impeachments, but he officially declared his support for the efforts last month.
That came just a day after Taylor Greene and House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) introduced resolutions to expunge the impeachments. Greene’s resolution would annul the first impeachment from December 2019, while Stefanik’s would do the same for the second one from January 2021.
The pressure on McCarthy to move forward with the votes has only intensified recently after comments he made questioning whether Trump was the “strongest” Republican to face President Biden in the 2024 election.
Though he later clarified that he believed Trump is “Biden’s strongest opponent,” Politico reported that he promised the former president to hold the expungement votes ahead of the August recess in an effort to placate him. McCarthy has denied making any promise.
Now, the Speaker finds himself in a precarious position, squeezed between the hard-line members who support Trump and the more moderate members who strategists say don’t want to touch the issue.
Trump was impeached first over a threat that he made to withhold U.S. military aid to Ukraine unless President Volodymyr Zelensky launched an investigation into Biden. He was impeached the second time just over a year later for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. He was acquitted by the Senate in both cases.
GOP strategists said the issue is becoming something of a third rail for House GOP members in moderate or Democratic-leaning districts.
Heye, the Republican strategist and former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said a vote on expungement would only harm these vulnerable members in their reelection bids regardless of whether they ultimately vote for or against it.
“It’s a no-win situation for at-risk Republicans, which is why they don’t want to even have the vote over something that may not even be constitutional,” Heye said.
But he said he does not expect the vote on expungement will happen because of the divisiveness within the conference and its questionable constitutionality.
The Constitution states that the House has the “sole power” of impeachment, and officers of the United States can be removed from office upon conviction in an impeachment trial, but it makes no mention of expunging an impeachment or removing it from the historical record.
Rina Shah, a Republican consultant who has identified herself as the first “Never Trump” delegate in 2016, said those in “MAGA world” who most solidly stand by Trump still have significant influence on McCarthy and in the House Republican Conference because of the small donations that their voters are willing to send when they are passionate about a certain issue, like defending Trump.
She said McCarthy is more focused on satisfying the hard-liners and their voters than Trump himself.
“They are the people more likely to send $5 every time they’re fired up about something. So Speaker McCarthy, again, trying to walk and chew gum here doesn’t have to do this but is doing it so that he can look more like a leader,” Shah said.
She said the issue facing McCarthy is that he needs the votes of the moderate members for Republicans to keep their majority. She said this situation is only one point of an ongoing balancing act for McCarthy between the moderates and hard-liners.
“That is always the conundrum he finds himself in, is how to do this in a way where he’s making members in tough districts, he’s making them happy while at the same time really sticking his neck out to lead,” Shah said.
Tom Doherty, a New York Republican strategist, said the expungement effort is intended to “throw red meat to the base,” but is not focused on protecting moderate New York Republicans like Lawler.
“In one way, you’ve stood up to the Washington Republican establishment, which is always more conservative than New York Republicans, but on the other hand, you wind up ticking off your voters,” he said.
Despite a disappointing performance for Republicans nationally during the November midterm elections, GOP victories in House districts in states like New York and California were key to the party winning control of the House. These districts will also be among the top targets for Democrats seeking to regain the majority in the body.
Meanwhile, Democrats warned that these more hesitant Republicans could face “accountability” over their refusal to directly speak out to denounce the effort even if they ultimately vote against the resolutions.
Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright said moderate Republicans are “hoping and praying” that the resolutions do not come to a vote because their choice will affect them either in their primary race or the general election, as has happened before.
“They should all understand that accountability happens at the ballot box … If they do stand with McCarthy and others, forget about voting, just not speaking out loudly against it in the conversation about it, I think there will be an element of accountability for them in the next election cycle,” he said.
Seawright added that he expects more of a “clown circus show” that puts moderates in tough positions as the next election approaches.
Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for House Democrats’ campaign arm, told The Hill that vulnerable Republican incumbents have avoided addressing the multiple indictments facing Trump, and most have avoided directly and publicly condemning the “preposterous” idea of expungement.
“For the few that have desperately tried to distance themselves from it, voters will see it for what it is: empty rhetoric to distract from their long records of defending Trump no matter what,” Shelton said.
GOP strategists for their part warn that expungements votes could just force those Republicans already facing tough elections to have a steeper hill to climb.
“Why would you put folks that had an uphill race to win the first time around, why would you put them in a more difficult situation going forward?” said Doherty, the New York Republican.