Dems Hoping For A Rural Realignment Better Understand That Newsom Is A Blind Alley, Not A Bridge

When The Hair Gel Dries Up, Symbolism Over Substance Is A Newsom Problem

You probably never heard of Brian Dahle. A state senator from the uber-reactionary northeast corner of the state, Dahle was the California Republican Party’s sacrificial lamb against Gavin Newsom in 2022. It was a nearly 60-40 win for Newsom, a Democrat everyone knows but who no one really likes all that much. Wednesday I was dozing off when some MSNBC panel was all giddy about how Newsom was appealing to South Carolina rural voters in deep red parts of South Carolina. What a joke! Newsom lost almost every rural county in California and he sure isn't going to win any over in South Carolina. These are the dozen most rural counties in Califprnia along with the percentage of the voters who backed Newsom. He actually won two winy ones with small populations:

• Lassen Co- 16%

• Modoc Co- 20%

• Tehama Co- 24%

• Calaveras Co- 33%

• Sierra Co- 34%

• Plumas Co- 36%

• Siskiyou Co- 36%

• Mariposa Co- 38%

• Trinity Co- 41%

• Inyo Co- 45%

• Mono Co- 55%

• Alpine Co- 59%

As for the counties with the massive agricultural economies, Newsom lost them all, even though each of them is a Latino-majority county; and you’ll notice that two years earlier Biden had out-polled Newsom by a very wide margin in each of them:

• Fresno- 45% (Biden- 53%)

• Tulare- 36% (Biden- 45%)

• Kern- 37 (Biden- 44%)

• Merced- 46% (Biden- 54%)

Yeah, so don’t expect a corporate-aligned, slick centrist Democrat named Gavin Newsom to be the solution to the Democrats’ electoral problems in rural counties in South Carolina or anywhere else— including California. Newsom’s image— polished, preening and unmistakably coastal elite— doesn't play well with voters who are struggling under systems he’s been more interested in managing than transforming. Progressives see him as the embodiment of California’s corporate-friendly Democratic machine: a guy who talks the talk on climate and equity but whose record is full of betrayals. We haven’t forgotten how he vetoed universal healthcare legislation, sided with real estate interests to water down tenant protections and slow-walked meaningful climate reform while wining and dining with oil and utility executives. His administration green-lit new fossil fuel permits, bungled homelessness policy, and has been overly cozy with Big Tech and billionaires— hardly a resume that screams transformative leadership.

As for rural voters— they loathe him for entirely different reasons… but even more intensely. To them, he’s the perfect avatar of out-of-touch San Francisco liberalism: someone who governs from a high-rise far removed from the realities of farm towns, foothill communities and forgotten counties. They see Sacramento’s mandates and regulations— from water usage restrictions to pandemic shutdowns to environmental compliance— as intrusions on their way of life, imposed without understanding or respect. The recall campaign may have flopped statewide, but in counties like Lassen, Modoc, and Tehama, it wasn’t even close— Newsom’s brand is electoral poison in these parts.

National Democrats would do well to remember that Gavin Newsom is stuck in the dead zone— distrusted by the left and despised by the right. The idea that he could be a bridge between working-class rural voters and the Democratic Party is more MSNBC fantasy than political reality.

Newsom always manages to please people with symbolic gestures, some being very meaningful even if they don’t break through into the transformative. He won over the LGBTQ community when he was mayor of San Francisco by performing a marriage for 2 gay gentlemen on the steps of City Hall. And more recently, he’s occasionally mouthy towards Señor TACO, which goes over well with partisan Democrats, even if nothing ever comes of it.

You may have read that Texas Governor Greg Abbott, on orders from the White House, is moving forward with yet another mid-decade gerrymander of Texas’ congressional districts with the purpose of changing the current partisan make up of 25 Republican seats and 13 Democratic seats to 28 or 29 Republicans and 8 or 9 Democrats. The likeliest Democratic incumbents would be Lizzie Fletcher, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. Although Vernica Escobar and Julie Johnson could also be gerrymandered out of their seats as well.

In response, Gavin Newsom has quietly boasted that he will gerrymander California in a tit-for-tat fashion. It’s conceivable that Newsom allies could gerrymander Kevin Kiley, Ken Calvert, David Valadao, Young Kim,  and maybe even Tom McClintock, Jay Obernolte and Darrell Issa out of their seats. California draws districts via and independent redistricting commission (California Citizens Redistricting Commission created by Prop 11 in 2008 and Prop 20 in 2010). So... this is just bluster and hot air that isn't going anywhere.

The Gavin Newsom fantasy is the product of a donor class and punditry bubble that mistakes camera-ready charisma for cross-demographic appeal. But there’s no version of rural Texas, South Carolina, or even the Central Valley where voters are suddenly going to rally behind a guy who radiates West Coast smugness and technocratic detachment. He’ll win praise for his rhetorical jabs at Trump or his glossy appearances on cable news, but hopefully very few will confuse that with a meaningful political coalition.