My Prediction Which Way All The Uncalled Races Will Go
There are 32 uncalled House seats. Judging by the district's partisan lean and the continued flow of votes being counted, here’s how I call ‘em:
ME-02- Democrat Jared Golden (ranked choice)— R+6
NY-18- Democrat Pat Ryan— D+1
NY-22- Republican Brandon Williams— D+1
MD-06- Democrat David Trone— D+2
CO-03- QAnon Lauren Boebert— R+7
CO-08- Democrat Yadira Caraveo— even PVI
AZ-01- Republican David Schweikert— R+2
AZ-04- Democrat Greg Stanton— D+2
AZ-06- Republican Juan Ciscomani— R+3
NV-01- Democrat Dina Titus— D+3
NV-03- Democrat Susie Lee— D+1
NV-04- Democrat Steven Horsford— D+3
WA-03- Republican Joe Kent— R+5
OR-05- Democrat Andrea Salinas— D+2
OR-06- Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer— D+4
AK-at- Democrat Mary Peltola (ranked choice)— R+8
CA-03- Republican Kevin Kiley— R+4
CA-06- Democrat Ami Bera— D+7
CA-09- Democrat Josh Harder— D+5
CA-13- Democrat Adam Gray— D+4
CA-15- Democrat Kevin Mullin— D+28
CA-21- Democrat Jim Costa— D+9
CA-22- Republican David Valadao— D+5
CA-26- Democrat Julia Brownley— D+8
CA-27- Republican Mike Garcia— D+4
CA-34- Democrat Jimmy Gomez— D+32
CA-35- Democrat Norma Torres— D+13
CA-38- Democrat Linda Sanchez— D+14
CA-41- Republican Ken Calvert— R+3
CA-45- Republican Michelle Steel— D+2
CA-47- Democrat Katie Porter— D+3
CA-49- Democrat Mike Levin— D+3
If I got them all correct— and there are a few that are really too close to call with any certainty-- like CO-08, WA-03, NY-18 and AZ-01— that will give the Republicans 222 seats and the Democrats 215. What a nightmare that’s going to be for, among others, Speaker McCarthy— or whomever the Republicans give the thankless but coveted job to. For example, as Nate Silver noted yesterday, “One thing about the GOP mini-wave in New York state/NYC metro is that you're going to have a half-dozen Republican House members who are extremely vulnerable under typical presidential-year turnout conditions and will have a lot of incentive to buck GOP leadership.” That's on one side. On the other will be the Gang-Greene faction pushing to impeach Biden and his Cabinet, not to mention Kamala Harris... and to expel Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi and send Hunter Biden to prison and give Ukraine to Russia. Good times!
This morning, CNN reported that House fascists are already “withholding their support for House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy’s speakership bid and have begun to lay out their list of demands, putting the California Republican’s path to securing 218 votes in peril.” Among other demands, the Gang Greene insists on making it easier to call for floor votes on ousting a sitting speaker. McCarthy is adamantly against it but Colorado QAnon lunatic Lauren Boebert, who isn’t even sure she won reelection yet, calls it a “red line” for her.
But the group’s push to extract concessions from McCarthy has exacerbated tensions inside the party. Said one senior GOP lawmaker: “They are a bunch of selfish, prima dona assholes who want attention for themselves. They are trading effectiveness for the warm embrace of their social media followers.”
…Ralph Norman of South Carolina said McCarthy personally called and asked for his support for speaker, but Norman wouldn’t commit. He told McCarthy there’s a group of them that wants to meet in person, which he said McCarthy was amenable to.
Norman said the group hopes to formalize a lengthier list of all the rules changes they are seeking. They are also pushing to delay next week’s internal leadership elections, though there is no indication McCarthy plans to do so.
“I’m not supporting anybody until I know what the blueprint is,” Norman said.
When asked whether McCarthy should get credit for delivering the majority, Norman responded: “The taxpayers that voted the representatives in deserve the credit.”
Rep. Bob Good, a member of the Freedom Caucus, told reporters that McCarthy “has not done anything to earn my vote” for speaker.
The Virginia Republican also predicted that “there will be a challenge to (McCarthy) as a speaker candidate,” a possibility that CNN first reported was under consideration by the group.
Such a challenge would be more of a protest candidate than a serious one. The group just wants to show McCarthy during next week’s internal GOP leadership elections that he doesn’t have the floor votes for speaker, in hopes of forcing him to the negotiating table.
But there is at least one member who has said there is nothing McCarthy could do to earn his vote. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida said on his podcast that not only was McCarthy not his first choice to lead, he was not “even in my top 100.”
“With a slim majority, we shouldn’t be starting the C team,” Gaetz said. “We need to put our star players in a position to shine brightest so that we can attract more people to our policies and ideas.”
So far there are 67 freshmen elected, 37 Republicans and 30 Democrats.
AL-05 - Dale Strong (R) AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R) AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R) FL-04 - Aaron Bean (R) FL-07 - Cory Mills (R) FL-13 - Anna Paulina Luna (R) FL-15 - Laurel Lee (R) GA-06 - Rich McCormick (R) GA-10 - Mike Collins (R) IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R) IN-02 - Rudy Yakym (R) IN-09 - Erin Houchin (R) MI-10 - John James (R) MO-04 - Mark Alford (R) MO-07 - Eric Burlison (R) MS-04 - Mike Ezell (R) MT-01 - Ryan Zinke (R) NC-11 - Chuck Edwards (R) NJ-07 - Tom Kean Jr. (R) NY-01 - Nick LaLota (R) NY-03 - George Santos (R) NY-04 - Anthony D'Esposito (R) NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R) NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R) NY-23 - Nick Langworthy (R) OH-07 - Max Miller (R) OK-02 - Josh Brecheen (R) SC-07 - Russell Fry (R) TN-05 - Andy Ogles (R) TX-01 - Nathaniel Moran (R) TX-03 - Keith Self (R) TX-08 - Morgan Luttrell (R) TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R) TX-38 - Wesley Hunt (R) VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R) WI-03 - Derrick Van Orden (R) WY-AL - Harriet Hageman (R)
Democrats (progressives in blue):
CA-37 - Sydney Kamlager (D) CA-42 - Robert Garcia (D) CO-07 - Brittany Pettersen (D) CO-08 - Yadira Caraveo (D)
FL-10 - Maxwell Frost (D)
HI-02 - Jill Tokuda (D)
IL-01 - Jonathan Jackson (D) IL-03 - Delia Ramirez (D) IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D) IL-17 - Eric Sorensen (D)
KY-03 - Morgan McGarvey (D) MD-04 - Glenn Ivey (D) MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-13 - Shri Thanedar (D)
NC-01 - Don Davis (D) NC-04 - Valerie Foushee (D)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D) NC-14 - Jeff Jackson (D)
NJ-08 - Robert Menendez Jr. (D) NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-10 - Dan Goldman (D)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-13 - Emilia Sykes (D)
OR-04 - Val Hoyle (D) PA-12 - Summer Lee (D) PA-17 - Chris Deluzio (D) RI-02 - Seth Magaziner (D)
TX-30 - Jasmine Crockett (D) TX-35 - Greg Casar (D)
VT-AL - Becca Balint (D)