This morning, our friends at the Wall Street Journal warned that “White suburban women, a key group of midterm voters, have significantly shifted their support from Democrats to Republicans in the closing days of midterm campaigning because of rising concerns over the economy and inflation… The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since The Journal’s August poll.” And a couple of other new polls— one from CNN and an NPR/PBS one from Marist— both claim Republicans are more fired up to vote than Democrats, especially Democrats of the Black and Hispanic persuasion.
Meanwhile, Tim Miller wrote before dawn It’s the Crime, Stupid. He noted that “crime is a central issue that will propel the coming GOP wave. So that leaves one to wonder: What is it that these voters want Republicans to do to address crime when they take power? … Voters are looking for someone who wants to:
Maintain or increase funding for police (84 percent to 15 percent, Pew)
Implement red flag laws (83 percent, Quinnipiac)
Investigate police involved in shootings (81 percent support, Ipsos)
Put more cops on street patrol (77 percent support, Ipsos)
Make 21 minimum age to buy a gun (74 percent, Quinnipiac)
Use social workers to help police defuse situations where there are problems (65 percent, ABC/WaPo)
Increase funding to build economic opportunities in poor communities (62 percent, Ipsos)
Fewer guns (52 percent Quinnipiac)
Stricter enforcement of current gun laws (51 percent ABC/WaPo)
Ban the purchase AR-15s (50 percent, Quinnipiac)
“To summarize: Voters want to ensure that police are funded, that there are more cops on the streets, that guns are more difficult to purchase, and that people should be able to have police confiscate weapons from loved ones with mental health issues. How about in bumper sticker form: More cops. Fewer guns and violent criminals on the street. Or, in other words, exactly the policies that Joe Biden has tried to enact during his first two years and will continue if left to his own devices!”
Last night Chris Hayes pointed out that crime is out of control in 10 states, 9 of which have iron-grip conservative governance, New Mexico being the outlier.
Polling is insane, contradictory and wildly out of whack— showing one thing one day and the exact opposite the next. So what’s driving the election? No one thing and, as I pointed out earlier, tribalism more than anything. This new 4 and a half minute video by Robert Reich, 3 Lies, tells the story better than most of what I’m hearing. The 3 lies are about crime, inflation and taxes. Every Democratic candidate should taking calls from the DCCC and close out their campaigns by sticking to Reich’s talking points: