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The 2022 Senate Map Does NOT Lean Democratic



As usual, there is some really stupid conventional wisdom-- disconnected from American reality-- circulating Inside the Beltway but the one about how the 2022 Senate elections are in the bag for the Democrats is laughable. Neither Burgess Everett nor John Bresnahan is an idiot but this morning they passed along that dummy conventional wisdom to their readers: the 2020 Senate map is "tilted against the GOP" because the Republicans have to defend 20 seats and the Democrats only have to defend 13 seats. What nonsense!

The poor beleaguered Republicans have to "defend" 9 states where Democrats will probably decide to save money by not even mounting serious campaigns, states where Trump just won landslide victories and where Biden got less than 40% of the vote:

  • Alabama (36.5%)

  • Arkansas (34.8%)

  • Idaho (33.1%)

  • Kentucky (36.2%)

  • Louisiana (39.9%)

  • North Dakota (31.8%)

  • Oklahoma (32.3%)

  • South Dakota (35.6%)

  • Utah (37.7%)

And I didn't even include states where Democrats have virtually no chance without something cataclysmic happening. South Carolina isn't on the list because Biden went over 40%-- and was "only" beaten by Trump 1,385,103 (55.1%) to 1,091,541 (43.4%) But more telling is that the Democrats just spent an obscene $124,426992, in South Carolina Senate race and managed to do not even a full point better than Biden did. Besides which, the senator up for reelection is Tim Scott, who's far less objectionable to voters-- especially Black voters, who are the base of the South Carolina Democratic Party, than Lindsey Graham is.

Democrats may try in Indiana, where Trump won 1,729,446 (57.0%) to 1,241,774 (40.9%), but does Indiana even have a statewide Democratic Party any longer? Same in Ohio and Florida, the states that can boast about having the two worst state parties in the nation and where the ODP and FDP can guarantee a loss to any statewide candidate they back-- and where they are nobenches to find someone to run against relatively popular Republican incumbents anyway. Missouri and Kansas aren't on the list either (Biden won 41.4% in Missouri and 41.3% in Kansas). Missouri reelected a COVID-SuperSpreader Republican governor, Mike Parson 57.1% to 40.7% against the best the Democrats could do. And in Kansas, the open Senate seat went red again 53.5% to 41.6% despite Schumer having recruited an actual Republican, Barbara Bollier, to pretend being a Democrat for the election. Bollier and his allies outspent Republican Roger Marshall $40.8 million to $36.5 million and he won by double digits anyway.

Everett and Bresnahan began by babbling about the Iowa Senate seat, Grassley's. Grassley is old (87) and has COVID but he may run-- and win-- again... as Dianne Feinstein, another walking corpse, did in 2018. But what if he doesn't? The Democrats got wiped out in Iowa, spending huge but losing to Trump (53.2% to 44.9%) and to Joni Ernst (51.8% to 45.2%)... and losing at least one of their House seats, but probably two. Despite the third worst coronavirus pandemic in the country-- 67,105 cases per million Iowans with another 13 death reported this morning-- Biden managed to win just 6 of Iowa's 99 counties (same as Hillary).

But even if you count Grassley as staying, 2 swing state Republicans-- Pat Toomey (PA) and Richard Burr (NC)-- are leaving and neo-fascist, pro-Putin Wisconsinite Ron Johnson has said he will also leave... and then that he may not. If Loeffler manages to win in Georgia in January (make sure she doesn't, by contributing to Raphael Warnock here), she'd have to run again in 2022. Obviously, same goes for Warnock if he wins the runoff.

Meanwhile, Republicans are planning to mount campaigns in swing states against Maggie Hassan (NH), Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV), and Mark Kelly (AZ).

I'm not saying Democrats have no chance to win back the Senate-- unless Biden accomplishes nothing for working families in the next two years or if the recession turns into a depression. I'm just saying the map is not tilted in their direction-- and anyone who tells you so is just dead wrong, especially when you consider that, once again, Schumer will be handpicking lousy, base-deflating candidates like Theresa Greenfield, Cal Cunningham, Amy McGrath and Barbara Bollier.

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