Thanks To Trump, Iowa Appears To Be On The Verge Of A Major Red To Blue Flip

In 2024, Iowa continued to be a dead zone for Democrats. Trump beat Kamala 927,019 (56.0%) to 707,278 (42.7%). Both houses of the state legislature remained firmly in GOP hands— by better than two-to-one— and all 4 congressional districts, 3 of which are kind of purple— were won by Republican incumbents:

IA-01— PVI- R+4

• Mariannette Miller-Meeks- 206,955 (50.1%)

• Christina Bohannan- 206,156 (49.9%)

IA-02— PVI- R+4

• Ashley Hinson- 233,340 (57.1%)

• Sarah Corkery- 169,740 (41.6%)

IA-03— PVI- R+2

• Zach Nunn- 213,746 (51.9%)

• Lannon Baccam- 197,962 (48.1%)

Many Democrats feel if they nominate strong progressives instead of right-of-center garden variety establishment Democrats like they did last cycle, they can beat Miller-Meeks, Nunn and possibly even Hinson and Senator Joni Ernst. Blue Waves work that way. And on Thursday Patrick Svitek looked at how the building 2026 Blue Wave may impact Iowa. “[W]ith two marquee statewide races— and a state economy that is especially rattled by Trump’s trade war— Iowa Democrats,” he wrote, “say they are sensing an opportunity to claw back into competition with Republicans. Democrats are looking to seriously contest the newly open governor’s race, the U.S. Senate contest and most of the state’s U.S. House races next year, though the odds are squarely against them. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the two statewide contests as “Solid Republican,” and Democrats last flipped a House seat in Iowa in 2018.” That year was also a Trump-inspired Blue Wave year.

The progressive taking on Miller-Meeks, Travis Terrell, told us that “In 2026, if Iowa Democrats want to ride the next blue wave, we need to stop recycling candidates backed by corporate donations and purchased loyalty. It didn’t work in 2024, and it won’t work now— not against deeply entrenched Republicans who’ve mastered the art of manipulating their audience with fear and false promises. What we need are bold voices who can reach the people who’ve been left behind. You don’t beat someone like Trump— or his imitators— by nominating middle-of-the-road Democrats. You beat them by speaking the truth, unapologetically, and giving people a reason to believe again. A reason to fight. That’s how we flip seats like Miller-Meeks’. That’s how we rebuild the strongholds we once had in places like my hometown of Ottumwa, in Muscatine— once a proud union town— and in communities across this state that both parties have ignored for far too long. If we keep playing it ‘safe,’ we’re going to keep losing. But if we finally stop nominating candidates who’ve long since forgotten what struggle looks like— who talk about where they came from but can’t remember what it means to still be there— we can take this state back.”

The governor’s race could be especially enticing, Democrats say. The unexpected decision by Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds earlier this month to not seek reelection paved the way for the first open race since 2006, and Democrats immediately turned to their only remaining statewide elected official, Auditor Rob Sand, as a potential candidate.

“There are a lot of people who are seeing this as an opportunity,” Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Rita Hart said in an interview. “I think we’re going to have more experience. We’re going to have people that have more name recognition. And I think that they’re going to be announcing earlier than before.” Hart predicted the issue of Trump’s tariffs “definitely is going to be the focus of many campaigns.”

The party that controls the White House usually performs poorly in first midterms, leaving many Republicans bracing for political headwinds in 2026. And in Iowa— the second biggest agricultural exporting state in the country— not all Republicans have been fully onboard with Trump’s sweeping— and ever-changing— tariffs, which, at a minimum, have created deep uncertainty for farmers who make a living selling their crops to other countries.

But they scoff at the idea that the political environment will lead to any reversal of the state’s reddening.

Brad Sherman, a pastor and former state representative who has been running for governor as a Republican, predicted the state would continue trending Republican next year and expressed little concern about political backlash from Trump’s tariffs.

“We all knew that the tariffs would have some ups and downs to it,” Sherman said. “I’m not too worried about it at this point. There’s lot of other issues in Iowa that will affect the economy.”

Iowa is the kind of place where many Democratic operatives believe they need to compete again: It is a state that Barack Obama won twice and home to the rural, working-class voters who have been drifting toward Trump. When it comes to Senate races, national Democrats have few obvious pickup opportunities after Maine and North Carolina, leaving them looking for other, less likely opportunities to flip seats.

“If we want to take control of the Senate ever again, we need a plan to recruit and support candidates who can win in states like Texas, Iowa and Ohio, and by definition those people may have some disagreements with people who went to grad school and live in a major urban metro,” Pat Dennis, president of the top Democratic research group American Bridge, wrote last month on Twitter. 

That’s where people like Nathan Sage may come in. He became the first Democrat to declare against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst last week, announcing with a high-energy, profanity-peppered video that emphasized his background as a veteran, mechanic and radio announcer who grew up in a trailer park.

In an interview, he pitched himself as a “different Democrat” who can appeal to working-class Iowans who have grown weary of partisanship amid day-to-day concerns about making ends meet.

When it comes to tariffs, Sage argued in a statement that America has “gotten the short end of the stick in past trade deals but you don’t have to be an economist to see that Trump’s tariff chaos is a disaster.”

Like most Trump-allied Republicans, Ernst has urged patience for Trump to use tariffs as a tool to address the U.S. trade deficit. She told Fox Businesses earlier this month that people “need to give the president some space and time to do his negotiation.”

While the Senate race is likely to draw more and better-known Democrats, Sage’s opening pitch aligns with the kind of message the party hopes to have for 2026. Hart said one of the major lessons the party took from the 2024 election is that the economy is “No. 1 for folks” and that they should have talked about it more.

Better-positioned than Sage is State Rep. J.D. Scholten, an actual working class hero with a strong progressive approach. As far as I can tell, Scholten is likely to jump into the Senate race soon. Meanwhile more centrist and establishment Democrats feel positive about Sand, more of an establishment centrist type, running for the open gubernatorial seat.

Democrats are also seeing increased opportunity in the state’s U.S. House races. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced earlier this month that it would target three of the state’s four GOP-held House districts.

Trump has acknowledged farmers are “always put on the Front Line” in a trade war with countries such as China. But he has urged them to be patient, pointing to the trade deal he struck with China in his first term to argue the wait will be worth it.

Trump and other administration officials have spent recent days hinting at negotiations with China and voicing optimism, though the Chinese government has been less sanguine.

Iowa’s senior U.S. senator, Republican Chuck Grassley, is a longtime skeptic of tariffs and recently co-sponsored a bill to rein in the president’s tariffs power that Trump threatened to veto. But in other corners of the Iowa GOP, Republicans are willing to give Trump more leeway for now.

Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP leader, argued Trump is “working to clean up” the economy his predecessor, Joe Biden, left him and that farmers are “fed up” and “respect a leader who’s not afraid to take on China.”