Nikki Haley’s campaign leaked an announcement that Haley will be making an announcement in 2 weeks (Feb. 15) that she will run for president. All the polling I’ve seen show her at less than 5%, often much less. The Post And Courier reported Tuesday night she’ll be the second official candidate after Señor Trumpanzee, but… “Haley famously said earlier she would not seek to challenge Trump if he ran again, but her message has since shifted to say the country needs to look toward a different path.”
Trump will hammer her into oblivion as an untrustworthy liar. I imagine she’s actually running for vice president, albeit not on a Trump ticket. David Drucker reported yesterday that her campaign apparatus is in place and already at work and ready to launch. He wrote that “Most prominent Republicans mulling a 2024 bid— former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among others— appear content taking their time to assess the slowly developing field. Why give Trump, the only declared candidate in the race, a plump bullseye on which to slap a devastating nickname? The GOP base adores the Florida governor, and his poll numbers are high in hypothetical 2024 matchups. It’s created a unique dynamic: DeSantis is in no rush, yet he’s motivating other would-be opponents to hang back and wonder: Is the governor peaking too soon? Is support for him building? But not Haley.”
Republican insiders in South Carolina who have closely tracked her career, as well as national party operatives keeping tabs on 2024, say several factors are motivating Haley’s early move. Chief among them: reconnecting with grassroots conservatives at home in South Carolina, the state that votes third on the GOP presidential nominating calendar and the first state to vote in the heavily Republican South.
Haley also has competition. DeSantis has emerged as the primary alternative to Trump nationwide, but he also has made inroads with influential Republican donors in South Carolina. Changing the hearts and minds of Republican voters, donors, and activists who have flocked to the Florida governor is going to take some time, if it can be done at all. Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott, a black South Carolina Republican, is considering a presidential bid and would compete with Haley to bring some of the state’s political activists on board.
Then there’s Trump.
The former president has had trouble enlisting the support of prominent South Carolina Republicans for his 2024 campaign. Many were planning to stay away from Trump’s campaign event in Columbia on Saturday, a sign the party is somewhat fatigued and unenthusiastic about his third presidential campaign. Yet he still enjoys support from much of the GOP base, not to mention South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Also backing the former president is South Carolina Treasurer Curtis Loftis, elected to the office in 2010, the same year Haley was elected governor. “As the field stands today, I’m on the Trump team,” Loftis told The Dispatch.
…What better way to distinguish herself versus Trump, DeSantis, and anyone else, than by becoming the second declared candidate in the primary? The contrast is stark. Republican voters can choose between a white, male, soon-to-be 77-year-old defeated former president who has led the GOP to three consecutive electoral disappointments, or a nonwhite woman in her early 50s, born of immigrant parents, with conservative bona fides on most critical issues that are unassailable.
From this vantage point, Trump’s characteristic inability to restrain himself from attacking opponents— even those who are polling in the low single digits— might be a gift to a candidate like Haley.
Trump will unlikely be able to resist targeting Haley considering their history. She served in his cabinet for nearly two years. Their rapport was famously copacetic but deteriorated when Haley criticized Trump’s handling of his loss in 2020. She has tried to repair the relationship, but it is not what it was.
“If she is the next candidate to get in, they are foils unlike any we have seen so far, and it certainly shakes things up because she would be the alternative to the former president until someone else jumps into the primary,” said Rob Godfrey, a past adviser to Haley and McMaster and the spokesman for the South Carolina GOP during the 2008 presidential primary. He’s also staying neutral in the unfolding 2024 contest. Trump “has never been pitted one-on-one against someone with her story or her strengths, one of which is being able to effectively throw a punch or counterpunch.”
Trump, who usually can't control his animal instincts will give her all the national name ID she needs. And, as of now, that's exactly what she needs.
