Musk's In A Political Pickle— I Have An Idea For How He Can Crush Trump In The Game They’re Playing

Yesterday, Erin Doherty reported that on Saturday Musk announced that had had “formed a new political party, the ‘America Party,’ which he claims will give Americans ‘back your freedom. By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!’ Musk wrote on Twitter, one day after he posted a poll on the platform asking his followers if they support creating the ‘America Party.’… He also said that the party would caucus independently and that ‘legislative discussions would be had with both parties.’” 

If we're talking about Kentucky, I doubt there is any amount of money Musk is going to spend bolstering Thomas Massie against Trump that can save Massie. Massie’s a die-hard conservative; not a “moderate” in any way. But he stood up to Trump and Trump is making an example of him and has to destroy him. Massie’s northern Kentucky district— the southern suburbs of Cincinnati, eastern suburbs of Louisville and a whole lot of rural in between and beyond— went for Trump big all three times. Trump beat Biden with 65.4% and last year Trump beat Kamala with 66.9%. Can Massie— even with Musk’s money— persuade voters that the Big Ugly Bill was ugly enough to oppose? We’ll see.

I’m not 100% convinced Musk is going to invest what it could take anyway— not for Massie and not for any of the other candidates primarying Republicans who backed the bill. In fact… are there any? Meanwhile, Trump will back state Sen. Aaron Reed against Massie. Musk is in an awkward situation, one that is going to make him look like a loser again, not what he wants. But Trump will win this one and my bet is that Musk will look for a way to worm out of his very public vow to finance primaries against Republicans who voted for the Big Ugly Bill. You can’t beat someone with no one… and I find it hard to believe that Musk is going to try to help Democrats in the general, not even conservative Democrats like Fred Golden (Blue Dog-ME), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 9blue Dog-WA), Vicente Gonzalez (Blue Dog-TX), John Mannion (New Dem-NY), Lauren Gillen (New Dem-NY) or Tom Suozzi (New Dem-NY). 

I guess in states with jungle primaries, he could do independent expenditures attacking Republicans who voted for the bill, “inadvertently helping the Democrat— like in CA-22, where he could easily defeat Valadao. This could also work against Ken Calvert, Young Kim, Kevin Kiley and Jay Obernolte, maybe even Darrell Issa and Tom McClintock in California— but that would hand the House over to the Democrats; would that be ok with him? Other possibilities where this could work would be in Alaska, where he could defeat Nick Begich and maybe Mike Flood in Nebraska. He would certainly get even with Trump that way. But Trump really would deport him if he did that. 

Trump canceled a SpaceX contract yesterday

Yesterday, Caroline Vakil reported for The Hill that “Some lawmakers have sought to brush off Musk’s threat. ‘I’ll take President Trump’s endorsement over Elon’s any day of the week, back home,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) said in an interview with Just the News’ Nicholas Ballasy regarding the potential primary challenge. Marshall said his Republican colleagues were ‘ignoring’ Musk.” Marshall’s opponent, Michael Soetaert is not viewed as an even remotely serious threat, not even in a big blue wave.

Vakil continued that “Some Republicans expressed skepticism that Musk would actually follow through in launching primary challenges against GOP incumbents, while others didn’t view the billionaire’s remarks as an immediate threat. ‘I think the president is much more popular with the base right now than Elon Musk, and I think our elected representatives are also more popular,’ said Mark Jefferson, a former executive director for the Wisconsin GOP. ‘I don’t take the threat all that seriously, because how do you primary hundreds of people?’ asked Georgia-based Republican consultant Brian Robinson.”

Unlike Musk, Trump has a history of trying to oust Republicans with whom he’s been at odds, with varying degrees of success. And Trump’s allies have already signaled this cycle they’re not afraid to go after holdouts and members of the party they see as stymieing the president and his agenda. A pro-Trump super PAC has already been created with the goal of “firing” Massie.

“Unless and until Musk can start lining up some A-team candidates or credible people or people in the same wing of the party, he’s going nowhere,” said top GOP donor Eric Levine, who described Massie as “fringe.”

Other Republicans suggest it may not be long before Trump and Musk are back on good terms again.

While it’s too soon to say how serious Musk might be about his primary threats, the moves would be an unnecessary obstacle for the party.

“I hope that he doesn’t, obviously, because I think that primary fights normally don’t do anything but strengthen the opposition,” said longtime GOP donor Bill Bean.

Bean acknowledged that Musk “has a point” about the GOP legislation raising the deficit, but he also voiced concern that Musk’s primary challenges against members of Congress could force Republicans to divert resources from areas where the party might not otherwise have been concerned.

“I think that his money would be much better spent instead of primarying conservative Republicans who maybe aren’t 100 percent as conservative or 100 percent agree with him to go out and win elections in swing districts,” Bean said. 

“I guarantee you, if we had a 30-seat majority in the House and a 12-seat majority in the Senate, the bill right now going through would be a lot closer to what he would like to see,” he added.

… Meanwhile, some Republicans have a warning for Musk, should he follow through on his threats.

“Musk is deeply hated among Democrats. For now, he maintains good standing among Republicans, but if he follows through, he will lose them as well and be a man without a country,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe in an email to The Hill. “That will sabotage any political or business initiatives he’s involved in.”

Musk thinks he’s infinitely smarter than Trump, who he’s called a moron in private. But the map and the timing is almost impossible for him. However, skipping the doomed ideological purity contests in ruby-red primary states and going straight for the jugular in jungle primary states— where he doesn’t need to recruit unicorn candidates or build an entire infrastructure overnight— is the kind of move that could actually prove he is smarter than Trump. Pouring independent expenditure money into totally negative messaging against Valadao, Kim, Calvert, Kiley, Obernolte, Begich, maybe even Flood and Issa, hammering these incumbents for voting to explode the deficit and for betraying “fiscal sanity” would weaken them among independents and even Republicans—and open the door to a Democrat advancing over them in the top-two system. He wouldn’t have to endorse a Democrat. He wouldn’t even have to mention one. All he’d have to do is make sure Republican voters start associating Trump’s lackeys with the very thing they claim to hate: reckless spending.

He wouldn’t need to “flip” these districts himself— just tilt the field enough to let someone else do it. If the result is a flipped seat or two— or five or six— it would cost Trump the House, hand Democrats subpoena power, and make Trump look weak and beatable. Best of all for Musk, he could do it without lifting a finger for the Democratic Party itself. If Musk really wants to prove he's a master strategist, not just a tantrum-prone billionaire with a Twitter account, he’ll see the jungle primary map as the opportunity it is: a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. Trump is playing checkers. Musk says he plays 4D chess. So let’s see it. Want revenge? Don’t waste your money in the Old Confederacy. Use California to break Trump’s grip on Congress— without ever touching a blue bumper sticker. That’s how you really win the game.

This is complete pie-in-the-sky and probably wouldn't win even one seat, unless he's willing to spend $5-10 million per House seat and $50 million per Senate seat, not counting the ghastly cuts his consultants would take, and even then it would be very iffy, especially without viable candidates: