The Michigan 10 race wasn’t on many Democrats’ radar. DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney was too busy trying to bribe the Satmar Chassidim to support him to bother with Carl Marlinga’s campaign for the open seat north of Detroit (parts of Oakland and Macomb counties from Warren and St Clair Shores up trough Sterling Heights to Rochester Hills in the West and Mt. Clemens in the east). The district has an R+3 PVI and an R+6 partisan lean, so the DCCC just ignored it. Cook didn’t include it on their list of tossup races.
Republican John James was heavily favored to win and raised $6,258,771, while Marlinga only raised $931,183. McCarthy’s SuperPAC spent $1,428,319 on the race, while DCCC and Pelosi’s SuperPAC spent a grand total of… zero. In all, over $2,000,000 went into attacking Marlinga and bolstering James, while less than $14,000 was sent trying to help Marlinga. So wasn’t everyone surprised this morning when— with over 95% of the vote counted— the race was too close to call.
Colorado’s third district has a PVI of R+7, normally an impossible task for a Democrat. The partisan lean went from an R+12 to an R+15. And yet, with 90% of the voted counted this morning, Boebert was still losing. She may win in the end but this was an unexpectedly close race. Had the DCCC recognized it, they could have swung it for Frisch. Instead Boebert raised $6,599,158 to Frisch’s $3,710,300. The DCCC spent nothing; neither did Pelosi’s SuperPAC. Cook didn’t include it on their list of tossup races.
Over 95% of the votes in Iowa’s 3rd district are counted and it looks like Republican Zach Nunn is ousting the sole Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation, conservative New Dem Cindy Axne. When Mitch McConnell came up with the idea of “candidate quality” to describe Trump’s Senate recruits, the media loved it. But no one wanted to discuss candidate quality in terms of Democrats. In California, for example, the establishment Dems back 3 absolutely dreadful conservative Democrats from the state legislature, Rudy Salas, Adam Gray and Christy Smith, each of whom is running in a blue district and each of whom is trailing their Republican opponent this morning.
CA-13 (D+4)- John Duarte leads Adam Gray 50.1 to 49.8% (42% counted)
CA-22 (D+5)- David Valadao leads Rudy Salas 54-46% (32% counted)
CA-27 (D+4)- Mike Garcia leads perennial loser Christy Smith 57.6-42.4% (45% counted)
Cindy Axne is also a terrible candidate. Elected in 2018, her ProgressivePunch grade is a solid “D.” There are only two reasons to vote for her:
1- lesser evil
2- team blue no matter who
And in a district where the the partisan lean is R+2, that’s not enough. With virtually all the votes counted, Nunn is beating her 155,972 (50.3%) to 153,905 (49.7%) Cook didn’t include it on their list of tossup races.
NY-18 is the upstate Hudson Valley district centered on Poughkeepsie that includes Orange County, almost all of Duchess County and part of Ulster County. Currently it’s represented by Sean Patrick Maloney but Maloney jumped to NY-17 after redistricting because he saw an opportunity to represent a slightly bluer district, even if it meant pushing Mondaire Jones out of his seat. NY-18’s PVI is D+1 and NY-17’s is D+3. Nonetheless, Maloney lost in the bluer district, mostly because voters were angry that he pushed Jones out. Meanwhile the open 18th finds Democrat Pat Ryan holding on by the skin of his teeth. With almost all votes counted, Ryan leads Republican Colin Schmitt 131,301 (50.4%) to 129,128 (49.6%). Ryan out-spent Schmitt $3,255,714 to $1,511,468 and he had slightly more outside money spent on his behalf than Schmitt did. Cook didn’t include it on their list of tossup races.
Last district is NM-02, freshly gerrymandered from a partisan lean of R+14 to a lean of D+4. Republican incumbent Yvette Herrell knew she was in big trouble and raised around $4 million dollars, a figure Democrat Gabe Vasquez more or less matched. Republican outside groups spent around $7.6 million trying to help Herrell and Democratic groups spent around $6 million helping Vasquez. Cook did include it on their list of tossup races— and predicted that Herrell would win. Almost all the votes are counted and it’s too close to call:
