Yesterday, The Hill published one of those pieces they’re always running: Senate rankings: Here are the 5 seats most likely to flip. If you count Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin as Democrats— she isn’t and he is, at least on paper— all 5 are Democratic seats. The only good news for the Democrats is that Sinema, who should be on top of the list, certainly not at #4, is likely to be replaced by a relatively progressive Democrat, Ruben Gallego, who all the polls show beating her and also winning in a 3-way contest with any of the even remotely plausible GOP opponents.
Her constituents are finished with her— as are her colleagues in DC, although The Hill termed the race “by far the most complicated contest on this list.” It’s not really that complicated. She’s horrible and the voters have figured it out and want to get rid of her. Her approval rating is underwater among Democrats (-19), among independents (-6) and among Republicans (-4). The only thing that might be complicated is that she’s an inveterate and calculated liar and a filthy monster and she’ll certainly be running the dirtiest, most smear-centric campaign against Gallego in the history of Arizona politics. Even as she plots a reelection bid, she pretends she hasn’t made up her mind about running yet. Coincidentally, Robert Draper’s NY Times Sinema-friendly piece, Kyrsten Sinema’s Party Of One ran this morning.
“No one unaffiliated with either of the two parties,” wrote Draper, “has ever won statewide office there. For Sinema to do so, according to Chuck Coughlin, a prominent Republican consultant in Arizona, ‘she needs 20 to 25 percent of Democratic voters, 25 to 30 percent of Republicans and 50 to 60 percent of self-identified independents.’ In Coughlin’s view, Sinema’s easiest task will be to win over a majority of independents, who amount to 33.7 percent of Arizona’s overall electorate, according to data from the secretary of state’s office. A taller order will be to pick off at least one-quarter of the 34.5 percent of Arizonans who are registered Republicans. Accomplishing this would require her to outperform President Biden, who won nearly seven percent of the Republican electorate against Donald Trump in 2020, as well as Gov. Katie Hobbs, who received almost 11 percent of the Republican vote in her 2022 victory over the far-right Kari Lake. Of course, those candidates also benefited from their party’s overwhelming support. Sinema, even before she left the party in December, had become the Democrat whom Democrats love to hate. After casting the deciding vote against a minimum-wage increase in March 2021— and doing so theatrically, with a curtsy and a thumbs down— the progressive publication The Nation anointed her a ‘super villain.’”
The first most vulnerable seat, according to The Hill, is Manchin’s in blood red West Virginia. They may be right. Like Sinema, no one likes him much— neither Democrats nor Republicans and his shtik has worn thin. But… the strongest Republican running against him, Governor Jim Justice, isn’t going to waltz into the GOP nomination and if Alex Mooney, the third-rate MAGAt contender beats him, Manchin has a chance. This vicious “Deadbeat Billionaire” ad from Club For Growth that just started running, may take a serious toll on Justice.
Manchin is still accessing the situation and if it looks like he’s going to lose, probably won’t even run. There’s no other Democrat— if you want to count him as one— who would have even a remote chance to beat Mooney, let alone Justice.
The second likeliest state to flip, according to The Hill, is Montana, a very red state with a Democrat, Jon Tester, behaving more conservatively than he really is. But it isn’t sure who his opponent will be. McConnell is working to nail down a mainstream conservative, Tim Sheehy , state Auditor Troy Downing or Attorney General Austin Knudsen but extreme fascist Congressman Matt Rosendale is eager to run as well and is unlikely to be able to beat Tester.
The Hill is also ritually pessimistic about Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Bob Casey (D-PA). Brown has the red state problem and Casey… well, they just needed a 5th name. There’s sure to be a vicious MAGA primary— 4 extremists, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Rep. Warren Davidson and self-funding MAGAt Bernie Moreno, plus one vaguely mainstream conservative with, luckily for Brown, no chance among Republicans, Matt Dolan.
Polling in Pennsylvania shows Casey very firmly in the driver’s seat. Crazed neo-fascist lunatic Doug Mastriano is almost sure to beat self-funding hedge fund creep David McCormick but it barely matters. Casey would slaughter the fascist (by 16 points) and beat the Wall Street plutocrat pretty convincingly as well (by 7 points).
It’s probably going to be a long while before the media starts focusing on the one Republican-held seat that could flip: Missouri. Josh Hawley is extreme, unpopular and backs policies no one likes and his likely Democratic opponent, Lucas Kunce, is the strongest candidate the Democrats have anywhere, even if the DSCC is yet to figure that out. Blue America has endorsed Kunce. You can contribute to his campaign here and |’d suggest you watch this video. If Manchin loses his seat, Kunce is the only candidate that could keep the Senate in Democratic hands.
The Senate will also be tremendously upgraded when either Barbara Lee, Katie Porter or Adam Schiff replaces Dianne Feinstein in California. And if Jamie Raskin takes the Maryland seat, now that Ben Cardin has announced his impending retirement, that would be a super-significant upgrade as well, not because Cardin is unfit, but because there are few members of Congress as awesome as Raskin. There's also a chance to upgrade in Michigan-- Hill Harper replacing Debbie Stabenow.