Big Shocker For The GOP In Alaska-- Will They Wake Up Now?
Alaska has a partisan lean of R+15. Let’s fantasize for a minute. Voters continue getting angry that the GOP is taking away women’s Choice, sabotaging effective action on Climate, voting against raising the minimum wage and against lowering the cost of drugs. Voters stew in the September heat wave and make up their minds the same way Alaska voters did. Look, plenty of voters did cast their ballots for Palin— but not enough to win. Mary Peltola beat Palin 51.5% to 48.5%. These were the same voters that gave Trump a 10 point margin over Biden— 52.8-42.8% in 2020.
OK, none of that is fantasy. The fantasy is that the Republicans lose all the House seats that have partisan leans of R+15 or less. Let’s start in California. 6 Republicans would lose their seats: David Valadao, Jay Obernolte, Young Kim, Michelle Steel, Ken Calvert, Mike Garcia. How about Texas? Super-gerrymandering will protect most incumbents but get ready to say say adios to Tony Gonzales and Mayra Flores. In Pennsylvania 2 GOP incumbents will be on K Street looking for jobs: Brian Fitzpatrick and Scott Perry. Ohio? End of the line for Steve Chabot, Michael Turner and Mike Carey. Vern Buchanan, Mario Diaz-Balart, Maria Salazar, Carlos Gimenez are seatless in Florida. New York Republicans would lose 4 seats— the ones currently held by John Katko, Lee Zeldan, Nicole Malliotakis and Andrew Garbarino.
A few other Republicans in districts with partisan leans of R+15 or less: Lauren Boebert (Q-CO), Don Bacon (NE), David Schweikert (AZ), Madison Cawthorn (NC), Richard Hudson (NC), Bob Good (VA), Robert Wittman (VA), Marionette Miller-Meeks (IA), Ashley Hinson (IA), Jeff Van Drew (NJ)… and at least a dozen more. Nice fantasy… although about 2 weeks ago if anyone predicted a Native American woman would be elected to the House from Alaska, it would have sounded like a fantasy too.