Have Republicans Really Gotten Crazier In Recent Years? Let’s Look At Missouri, Montana & Matt Gaetz

Republicans Add "Burning Books" To "As American As Mom & Apple Pie"

Matt Rosendale poses with 4 neo-Nazis

There was a time when Missouri was decidedly not a nut state. It was once a state that very much defined the political center. Now a candidate can’t go far enough into fascism to bother most of the voters. Look at this ad from a crackpot running for secretary of state, Valentina Gomez who took books from a public library and proudly burned them with a flamethrower— and promised to burn more if elected! She’s competing with State Rep. Adam Schwadron, State Sen. Denny Hoskins and Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller to show who’s more extreme and insane. That’s what wins GOP nominations in the Show Me State these days. Trump beat Biden there 56.8% to 41.4%, taking every county but Boone (Columbia), Jackson (Kansas City) and St Louis + St Louis City, which is a separate constituency. Señor T won the other 111 counties— 39 of them with over 80% of the vote. That’s how out ion their minds Missourans have been driven politically over the last couple of decades.

Ditto for Montana. Trump won there with a tenth of a percent more than he won in Missouri. And Montana used to be a pretty sane state too. Bill Clinton even beat George HW Bush there in 1992 and Obama and McCain were almost tied. Montana has been electing Democratic governors regularly, 8 consecutive years worth of Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock before Republican Greg Gianforte bought the position in 2020. And since the ‘50s, Montana has elected 8 Democratic senators and just 2 Republicans. It was a state were labor unions were a very big deal for a very long time. The senior Senator now is Jon Tester who won in 2006 by beating corrupt right-wing nut Conrad Burns and then being reelected in 2012 and 2018. His opponent in 2018 was wealthy neo-Nazi Matt Rosendale, currently one of the most far right members of the House Freedom Caucus. Tester beat him and Rosendale wants another crack at him. Senate Republicans picked a more mainstream conservative contender for the nomination, Tim Sheehy, who has no record Tester can campaign against.

Yesterday, Michael Bender reported that Rosendale will probably announce this weekend, probably Friday. And with McConnell’s power rapidly waning, there’s no one to stop him from making mincemeat of Sheehy. Funny enough, the head of the NRSC, Steve Daines, is the other senator from Montana and someone more eager than the average senator to stay on Trump’s good side. And he’s tried to clear a path for Sheehy. Now we hear MAGA Mike is about to endorse Rosendale... and then we heard that someone got to MM and he's changed his mind and isn't going to endorse Rosendale after all. What a clown show!

Daines has helped Sheehy secure a lengthy list of endorsements from Republican lawmakers across the party’s political spectrum, including Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, who holds the No. 3 position in Senate Republican leadership, and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Trump superfan from Georgia.

A coterie of powerful Republican super PACs and some of the party’s biggest donors are pouring money behind Sheehy, who was quick to endorse Trump’s 2024 presidential bid and campaigned for him during the Iowa caucuses last month.

But Rosendale, who has long coveted a Senate seat, hasn’t flinched in the face of an intense flex from both sides of the Republican establishment— the deep-pocketed Reagan-era traditionalists as well as the new class of consultants and elected officials who have risen to power alongside Trump.

To win the nomination, Rosendale— who in addition to voting to reverse the 2020 results, has voiced support for banning abortion without exceptions— is banking on his own reservoir of good will inside MAGA Nation as well as a base of conservative support in Montana.

…Trump has not endorsed a candidate in the Montana Senate race so far this year, even as he has again waded into other key congressional contests, including Senate races in Arizona and Ohio. Those two states, along with Montana, are seen as among the most competitive contests in the fight for control of the chamber. Republicans need to flip two seats to win back power if President Biden is re-elected, but just one if Trump or another Republican captures the White House.

While Trump remains on the sideline in Montana, Rosendale has been polishing his own America First credentials, in part by hiring Caroline Wren, a longtime Trump fund-raiser who is expected to serve as a key adviser for his Senate campaign.

Last month, Rosendale hosted a series of campaign-style events in Montana with Representative Matt Gaetz, a provocative and scandal-prone Floridian who maintains close ties to Mar-a-Lago.

Rosendale and Gaetz were part of the small band of Republicans who dethroned Rep Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, temporarily shutting down business in the chamber. Rosendale had objected to installing McCarthy in the role in the first place, appearing to brush off a phone call on the House floor from Trump, who had rung up Greene to urge his support.

Rosendale also has the backing of Stephen Bannon, the former Trump White House strategist who is planning a blitz of campaign events in Montana next month. Rosendale has been a frequent guest on Bannon’s War Room podcast, which is popular with [fascists].

Rosendale entered 2024 with $1.7 million in his federal campaign account. That’s about 40 percent of what he spent against Tester six years ago, but a small fraction of the money that is expected to go into the effort to nominate Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL who founded an aerial firefighting company.

Two super PACs aligned with traditional Republicans— the Senate Leadership Fund, which has ties to Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, and American Crossroads, which was co-founded by Karl Rove— have each reserved about $22 million in advertising in the state for the general election.

A third super PAC supporting Sheehy, known as More Jobs, Less Government, has been underwritten by a few wealthy Wall Street executives. Kenneth Griffin gave $5 million, Paul Singer contributed $1 million and Stephen Schwarzman chipped in $400,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The super PAC has hired Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s longtime pollster, and Andy Surabian, a strategist who has been involved with all three of Trump’s presidential campaigns.

Tester, meanwhile, has kept pace with the surge of Republican spending. His campaign has spent $5 million on an advertising push in the state, and has been aided by two Democratic super PACs, WinSenate and Last Best Place Last. They have combined for roughly $50 million in spending, most of which are ad reservations for the general election. The two PACs have links to the Senate Majority PAC, the top outside group for Senate Democrats.

No one is hoping Rosendale gets the nomination for than Tester. As for Gaetz, Olivia Beavers reported on another Gaetz vs the GOP moment. He’s got Illinois conservative Mike Bost in his sites. Next week he’s headlining a campaign rally for Bost’s challenger, far right kook Darren Bailey. “Bost,” wrote Beavers, “is a longtime foe of Gaetz's inside the GOP conference, but the rally amounts to an escalation of their mutual disdain. ‘I helped defeat Liz Cheney when she faced a strong challenger in her race, and I’m confident we can do the same when we hit the trail in Southern Illinois,’ Gaetz said… while praising Bailey as ‘an upgrade over the lackluster Republican incumbent.’ The bad blood between Gaetz and Bost is well-known in the House, spilling into view during a House GOP meeting last year where Bost exploded in rage at Gaetz for trying to address colleagues after engineering McCarthy's firing. That clash culminated with Bost, a Marine veteran, lunging towards Gaetz after the firebrand ignored his cries to sit down. Bost, meanwhile, appears unfazed by Gaetz's visit to his backyard.”

Asked if he considered Gaetz a threat, Bost replied: “I never considered Matt a threat. I considered him an ass, but never a threat.”

Bost will be the third sitting House Republican whom Gaetz has actively campaigned against. The Floridian previously held rallies against former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) before the party excommunicated her for criticizing Donald Trump and his influence on GOP leaders.

Gaetz also worked to unseat a fellow Floridian, former Rep. Ross Spano (R), whose reelection bid in 2020 was hurt by a Justice Department investigation into how he financed his 2018 campaign.

Bost, however, is a tougher enemy for Gaetz. Unlike Cheney and Spano, he isn’t plagued by a federal probe or feuds with Trump. He has a strong conservative record, and many of his GOP colleagues will be eager to try to protect him.

The Illinoisan has sought to argue that he is someone who can get things done, unlike his challenger. He's gotten a boost from McCarthy, who has previously visited Illinois to show support.

Bost’s southern Illinois district is deep red [R+46 partisan lean]. Trump carried it by 43 points in 2020, so the winner of the primary is all but certain to coast to victory in the fall. And Gaetz isn't the only incumbent wading into the intraparty contest; Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) is supporting Bailey, after Bost supported former Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL) during a Miller-Davis primary fight in 2022.

Bailey is a far-right state senator who lost the Illinois governor’s race by 13 points in 2022 and adopts a staunchly populist message. Democrats were so eager to run against him in 2022's gubernatorial race that the Democratic Governors Association spent money to help him win the GOP primary.