Blindly Following Trump, The GOP Is Tripping The Third Rail Of American Politics: Social Security

Trump’s approval rating has continued collapsing, more due to the Big Ugly Bill than just his role in the Epstein sex scandal. Yesterday, a new Gallup poll announced a second-term low: a dismal 37%, “including,” wrote Megan Brenan, “a 17-point decline among independents, to 29%, matching his lowest rating with that group in either of his terms.”

On average, presidents have been at 59% approval at this point in their terms. Trump’s 39% is worse than any other president since modern polling picked up on Dwight Eisenhower and JFK in 1953 and 196 at, respectively, 72% and 76%. Unpopular presidents Nixon, Bush and Biden were still significantly ahead of Trump with 62%, 56% and 53%.

I suspect that Trump’s disapprovals haven’t come close to bottoming out, regardless of what happens with the Epstein scandal. Yesterday, Emily Peck reported that Trump’s Big Ugly Bill is going to clobber Social Security recipients with benefit cuts of around $18,000 annually. Republicans had planned to hope the cuts off until they are out of office to force Democrats to bear the brunt and deal with it. Peck wrote that because of Trump’s bill, retirees will face “cuts in just seven years, sooner than projected… If policymakers don't stop this from happening, it would at least double the poverty rate of America's seniors… The new analysis projects a 24% cut to benefits by late 2032. That's equal to an $18,000 annual benefit cut for a dual-earning couple who both retire in 2033. They also might experience reduced healthcare access, per the analysis, due to an 11% cut in Medicare hospital payments. The percentages would grow over time, as the population ages and fewer young Americans [and immigrants] are paying into the system.”

Social Security is arguably the most popular government benefit— most Americans either receive benefits or know someone who does— the vast majority of Americans believe in its importance, according to recent polling. So where are the Republicans in Congress now— those self-styled defenders of the middle class and “family values?” Mostly hiding behind closed doors back in their home districts, crossing their fingers that voters are too distracted by Trump’s Epstein baggage to notice what they just did to Grandma’s check and Grandpa’s heart surgery. They’ll blame “entitlements,” pretend to care about deficits they ballooned with billionaire tax cuts, and hope the media gives them a free pass. I have a feeling the smoke and mirrors aren’t going to work too well.

Their Big Ugly Bill is political suicide— and they all signed their names to it. Aside from what they did to Medicaid and food stamps, they voted to gut the one program Americans trust the most, under the leadership of a man whose approval is in free fall and whose scandals read like a true crime podcast. They tied their fates to Trump and cemented themselves to the most toxic presidency in modern history. This is policy malpractice and moral bankruptcy. Every one of them running for reelection might as well have campaign signs that say “I Cut Social Security.” Seniors will remember and so will their children and no amount of red hats, Bible waving, or border fearmongering will make them forget. Without flinching they knowingly handed down a sentence— poverty and medical neglect for millions of aging Americans— so they could keep Trump happy and the donor class richer. They’re more afraid of Trump than they are of their own constituents; BIG mistake.

This cycle, western Wisconsin Democrats are going to choose between a Republican-lite Blue Dog and a progressive champion to oppose MAGA Republican Derrick Van Orden. The progressive in this race is Eau Claire city council president Emily Berge who told us this morning that “The 'big, beautiful bill' that Donald Trump and Derrick Van Orden championed isn't beautiful for Wisconsin families. It's a direct threat to the financial security and well-being of our seniors. Why the heck would anyone vote to cut Social Security benefits and Medicare? Just so billionaires can have more money? Billionaires get richer and regular Americans are saddled with financial insecurity and healthcare cuts. Derrick Van Orden may be celebrating this bill, I say we deserve better.  We deserve leaders who will fight for all people, not just the wealthy few.”