Democratic Party strategy is working. By not allowing another Democrat to run, by scaring voters into focussing on what a crackpot GOP frontrunner Larry Elder is and by raising the specter of Elder replacing a dead or incapacitated Dianne Feinstein, even Democrats who know what a sack of neoliberal, corporate shit Gavin Newsom are voting for him anyway. It worked! It worked! And it may even help his 2024 reelection bid.
And Trump just inadvertently helped Newsom with a statement he posted on his blog today that basically tells California Republicans not to bother voting because the fix is in:
All the polls have been increasingly favoring Newsom-- so much so that they Democratic establishment is worried that the polls will counter the fear and hold down turnout tomorrow. A new poll from Emerson finds a 60-40% split against the recall-- which, by the way, is what I predicted last month when I decided to send Newsom a message from a zip code that will probably have next to no "yes" votes. Spencer Kimball, Emerson Poll director, wrote that "Voters who said they have already voted are breaking against the recall at 64% with 36% in favor of recall. However, voters who were still planning to vote (on election day) were only slightly opposed to the recall, 52% to 46%." I wonder how many of that 46% will see Trump's statement and not go to the trouble of voting.
Kimball also noted that "Breakdown of voting intention by race/ethnicity shows Hispanic voters-- who in the previous polls were supporting the recall-- are now opposing the recall nearly 2:1, 65% to 34%. White voters are the most split among all race demographics, but still vote to keep Governor Newsom 55% to 45%. Black voters support keeping the governor 65% to 35%, and Asian American voters support keeping the governor 70% to 29%.
The only part of the state where there is any real enthusiasm for the recall is the sparsely populated and unproductive, COVID-ridden, unvaccinated northeast sewer that shouldn't be part of California to begin with. Counties like Lassen, Modoc, Yuba, Shasta, Tehama, Sierra, Siskiyou, Plumas and Mariposa collectively favor the recall 59-41%.
The U.C Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies poll that came out last week is even better news for Newsom-- 60.1% yes and 38.5% no. The Republicans tried making the recall a referendum on Newsom and policies they don't like such as pandemic mandates but the Republicans ar on the wrong side of every issue in California. Meanwhile, the Democrats made the recall a mandate against Trump and his pathetic candidate, Larry Elder, neither of whom is well-liked in California.
One neo-fascist, Carl DeMaio, Chair of Reform California, a far right group sending out flying pretending to be moderate urging people to vote for the recall, claims the polls are "wildly off" and that they they are "part of a narrative effort by the media and by Newsom to depress and demoralize Republican votes." Presumably he isn't counting Trump's blog in that category. By tomorrow night, Elder will be going to court and Fox News to claim the election was rigged against him.