It's Very Close
OH Predictive Insights doesn’t poll Ohio; they poll Arizona. They’ve been doing it a long time and they’re pretty good at it. Their latest poll shows the top-line statewide races tightening up. For most of the cycle, Mark Kelly, the incumbent Democratic Senator, was way ahead of crackpot Trumpist/Peter Thiel puppet Blake Masters but is now leading by just 2 points. The FiveThirtyEight average of polls shows Kelly ahead by 3.6 points. The brand new poll by Siena— a polling firm that does well in New York but not necessarily anywhere else— shows Kelly leading by 6 six points (51-45%). The OH Predictive poll results are within the margin of error, with Kelly at 48%, Masters at 46%, Libertarian Marc Victor at 3% and just 3% undecided.
Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research: “The Senate contest went from sleeper to competitive in this past month— Kelly’s massive spending advantage over Masters may not be enough to hold his seat.” Thiel, rumored to have once been Master's lover, has continued pouring millions and millions of dollars into the race. There is no way to know yet how much he has put in in these last weeks but it looks like the total will be over $20 million of his own loot. That's real money, even for a billionaire. He sure wants that seat, even more than the one he's trying to buy for J.D. Vance in Ohio.
The gubernatorial race is also within the margin of error— crackpot MAGA candidate Kari Lake at 49% and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs at 47%, with 4% undecided. “An interesting takeaway from the survey is that a majority of Hobbs' voting base (55%) is voting for her because they are against Kari Lake, whereas three-fourths of Lake's voter base (74%) is making their decision because they are for Kari Lake rather than against Hobbs.” That's what I meant when I mentioned Arizona being a politically crazy state.
But an important race that hasn’t been reported on as much nationally might be showing the most interesting result of the poll— the race for the open Secretary of State seat. Former Maricopa County Recorder, Adrian Fontes (D) is facing MAGA insurrectionist Mark Finchem, who is heavily backed by Trump. Fontes is leading, the only result in the state outside the margin of error! “Independents, who were key drivers of the share of undecideds, are now breaking for Fontes, giving him a 6-point lead. However, 11% of undecided voters could still swing this election one way or the other come November 8th.”
The race for Attorney General pits Democrat Kris Mayes against MAGA nut Abraham Hamadeh, also backed by Trump. With 12% undecided and within the margin of error, Mayes is leading with 45% to Hamadeh’s 42%.
I don’t know how reliable Data for Progress is as a polling firm. My gut tells me not very, although 538 rates them with a respectable “B.” Today they released some national polling that tried to determine which issue stands likely voters associate with which party. The problem I’m having with this is about the DCCC. The voters overwhelmingly associate all the good stuff— like investing in clean energy, expanding Medicare, building affordable housing, raising the minimum wage, lowering the costs of medicines, raising taxes on the wealthy, reducing taxes for Americans making $75,000 or less per year— with Democrats and the fucked top crap— increased military spending, banning abortion— with Republicans. And yet, the DCCC consistently fails too capitalize on this advantage. Maybe the House Democrats should think more closely before they elect another useless corporate shill like Sean Patrick Maloney, Steve Israel or Cheri Bustos this time around.
