A Classic Lesser Of 2 Evils Election
We had no Republicans where I grew up; they seemed like alien beings. I don’t think I ever met one until I went to college— and they were for the Vietnam War, against pot, against rock’n’roll and against desegregation, although they were most quiet about the last one.
Yesterday, the Washington Post focused on a very different kind of place than where I grew up. You know that finger that comes out of northeastern Wisconsin up into Lake Michigan? That’s the Door Peninsula. Also Door County— a tourist destination with a population of about 30,000 people, 97.8% of whom are white. Traditionally a moderate Republican bastion, it has done in a swing direction recently. Trump won the county in 2016— 48.8% to 45.6% but lost it to Biden in 2020, 49.9% to 48.5% In 2022, Door broke with its record of voting for Republican gubernatorial candidates and backed Tony Evers over Tim Michels 51.9% to 47.1%. And then this year, Door went for Janet Protasiewicz over right-winger Daniel Kelly by a pretty decisive margin, 57-43%… slightly more strongly blue than the state, which went for Protasiewicz 55.5% to 44.5%.
Danielle Paquette and Sabrina Rodriguez that “The presidential election is less than a year away, and Americans are drained. Almost two-thirds say they always or often feel “exhausted” when thinking about politics, according to a recent Pew survey, while more than half say they feel “angry.” Trust in the nation’s institutions has plunged to the lowest point in nearly seven decades, the poll found, with respondents describing the landscape in overwhelmingly negative terms: Divisive. Corrupt. Messy. A rising share of Americans, meanwhile, now identify as politically independent, according to Gallup’s latest annual snapshot, as the major parties’ front-runners remain unpopular.”
People say that see Biden as old and confused and Trump as corrupt and dishonest. And that goes for Door County as well. “They’re tired of America’s turmoil. The pandemic and inflation have already rattled folks, and the broader political backdrop— the impeachments, Trump’s torrent of falsehoods about the 2020 election, the Capitol insurrection, the band of hard-right Republicans ousting their speaker— has blocked out notice of what both sides cast as accomplishments, such as the billions of dollars poured into updating the nation’s roads, bridges and ports. Even as the economy grows at the strongest pace in two years, and jobs continue to proliferate, signs of progress are easy to miss amid what voters see as screaming matches. They long for compromise. They want to feel heard and understood. Most Americans, for instance, desire access to abortion, tighter restrictions on guns and affordable health care. Many wonder why our laws don’t reflect that.”
Umm… “access to abortion, tighter restrictions on guns and affordable health care.” That doesn’t sound too hard to figure out— if you vote based on issues. But… Paquette and Rodriguez wrote that “The emerging choices for the 2024 race further sour the mood. Support for Trump in Door County tends to be stronger in the south, a redder expanse of dairy farms, while Biden is more embraced in the north, a bluer enclave of lakefront vacation homes. A common curiosity, however, unites Republicans and Democrats: Why aren’t there better options?”
While Trump entertains Iowans with his golden showers episode in Moscow, Team Biden is working to reassure Democratic voters that he can beat Trump. Many Democrats are discontented with Biden, but there is no one else to replace him with. The most current RealClearPolitics polling average shows him with 72.0% of the vote to Marianne Williamson’s 7.8% and Dean Phillips’ 4.8%.
Ashley Parker, Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer wrote that Democrats worried about Biden think he’s “lost a step and is showing visible signs of aging. He has struggled to sell his economic accomplishments. And there are worries that his campaign, so far devoid of major events or organizing efforts, is not doing enough to deal with the public hand-wringing over his chances or the coming threat of Trump, 77. The unease is evident across the party: administration officials, elected officials, major donors— including those who have already given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Biden and his team— top strategists and campaign officials closely allied or working with the reelection effort.”
The White House and the Biden campaign have largely dismissed the concerns as unjustified agita, reminiscent of the criticism Biden’s campaign faced in 2020 and former president Barack Obama’s reelection campaign underwent in the fall of 2011. They argue that the current polling does not capture the likely outcome of an election, which will only come into focus once voters engage next year with the possibility of another Trump term in the White House.
…The concerns are anchored in early survey data, which show Biden is weaker than he was four years ago. An October Fox News poll found 53 percent of Democratic primary voters would like to see the party nominate someone other than Biden. A 59 percent majority said they have an unfavorable view of Biden overall, up from 44 percent in the fall of 2019 and similar to the 56 percent who currently see Trump in an unfavorable light.
The unexpected Israel-Gaza war has magnified fissures in the Democratic Party domestically, and Biden is also grappling with other challenges, from the ongoing debate of how to handle Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to inflation.
Democrats close to the campaign are also growing increasingly alarmed about its strategy— or, more specifically, what they worry is the lack of one, according to conversations with multiple people briefed on the operation.
Some argue that neither Biden nor his team have effectively communicated a reelection plan, a second-term governing vision or a clear argument against Trump. In response, the Biden camp’s public message has begun to shift in recent days, with far more aggressive attacks on Trump’s record on opposing abortion rights and on his second-term plans for immigration, including a massive expansion of deportations and a legal challenge to birthright citizenship.
Obama political guru, David Axelrod, told Maureen Dowd that he thinks Biden “has a 50-50 shot here, but no better than that, maybe a little worse. He thinks he can cheat nature here and it’s really risky. They’ve got a real problem if they’re counting on Trump to win it for them. I remember Hillary doing that, too.”
Biden’s polling looked wretched in the NBC poll released yesterday, with a 40% approval rating, the lowest of his presidency “as strong majorities of all voters disapprove of his handling of foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war… The erosion for Biden is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel has gone too far in its military action in Gaza, and among voters ages 18 to 34, with a whopping 70% of them disapproving of Biden’s handling of the war.”
All of this is shaping a general election that’s still some 350 days away. Biden trails Donald Trump for the first time in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in the NBC News poll, though the deficit falls well within the survey’s margin of error.
Trump gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Biden gets 44%.
In September, the two men were tied (at 46% each). And in June, Biden was narrowly ahead of Trump by 4 points (49% to 45%). While Biden’s support has changed throughout the year, albeit within the poll’s margin of error, Trump’s has barely budged.
In the current poll, Biden holds advantages over Trump among Black voters (69% to 20%), women (52% to 39%) and white voters with college degrees (51% to 40%).
Trump, meanwhile, holds the edge among white voters (53% to 39%), men (55% to 35%) and rural voters (58% to 35%).
And notably, Trump holds a slight advantage within the margin of error in the survey among voters ages 18 to 34 (46% to 42%)— a reversal from past election results and past NBC News polls. But the finding is consistent with other recent national surveys showing Trump more competitive among younger voters than he was previously, and it’s consistent with Biden’s overall struggles with this age group.