Yesterday, Digby, trying to be optimistic, speculated on the possibility that the Republican governors' war on women might save the Democrats' House majority. She reminded her readers how the Republicans had gone full-bore misogyny in 2012, helping Obama beat Romney and helping the Democrats gain 8 seats in the House-- they got 48.8% of the vote to the Republicans' 47.7%, though gerrymandering still kept the GOP in power-- and 2 seats in the Senate, shoring up their narrow majority. Democrats replaced some real GOP villains that year, like Dan Lungren (CA), Brian Bilbray (CA), Allen West (FL), David Rivera (FL), Joe Walsh (IL), Frank Guinta (NH) and Ann Marie Buerkle (NY) in the House.
Digby noted that "Republicans famously performed an electoral 'autopsy' after that election in which, among other things, they acknowledged that their reputation as witless misogynists was hurting the party’s image. But the party completely ignored that analysis and went on to elect Donald Trump, a man credibly accused of numerous sexual assaults who was even caught on tape crudely bragging about it. And as you have no doubt heard, despite their losses in the last two elections, they are at it again." Texas is leading the way... "The silence, Digby concluded, "from most national GOP officials has been deafening. Unfortunately, there’s not much they can do about it. By empowering fanatics in the states to go their own way, they’ve completely lost control of the issue."
I hope she's right. The GOP expects gerrymandering to save them from themselves-- and catapult them into position to run the show in the House. If the Democrats fail to accomplish anything big and flashy-- Biden's $3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill, currently being blocked by Manchin and Sinema in the Senate and by a pack of corrupt No Labels Blue Dogs in the House. This is an ad Our Revolution is running-- a warning shot over the bow of Richie Neal, one of Pelosi's chairmen:
The Cook Report published an interactive map today showing which districts they expect to to be gerrymandered seriously enough to jeopardize the incumbent or, if the incumbent is retiring, the incumbent's party.
Arizona- Tom O'Halleran (D) and David Schweikert (R)
Florida- Stephanie Murphy (D)
Georgia- Lucy McBath (D) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)
Illinois- Adam Kinzinger (R) and Rodney Davis (R)
Indiana- Frank Mrvan (D_
Kansas- Sharice Davids (D)
Maryland- Andy Harris (R)
Missouri- Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Michigan- Elissa Slotkin (D), Haley Stevens (D) and Dan Kildee (D)
New Hampshire- Chris Pappas (D)
New Jersey- Tom Malinowski (D)
New Mexico- Yvette Herrell (R)
New York- Lee Zeldin (R), John Katko (R), Claudia Tenney (R), Tom Reed (R)
North Carolina- David Price (D), Kathy Manning (D)
Ohio- Tim Ryan (D) and Marcy Kaptur (D)
Pennsylvania- Matt Cartwright (D), Dan Meuser (R) and Conor Lamb (D)
Tennessee- Jim Cooper (D)
Texas- Filemon Vela (D)
West Virginia- Alex Mooney (R) and David McKinley (R)
Sabato's Crystal Ball published the last in a series of very detailed pieces on the redistricting, a kind of summation. They wrote that Republicans are "favored to win the House majority next year, both because of redistricting and also because of the usual midterm trend that breaks against the party in the White House, among other factors... We did our own back-of-the-envelope projections of the House and anticipated some aggressive (but not maximally aggressive) gerrymandering by both Republicans and Democrats, where applicable. We also assumed a somewhat neutral political environment, which very well may not end up being the case-- in all likelihood, Joe Biden’s currently net-negative approval rating needs to rebound for there to be even a neutral environment next year as opposed to a Republican-leaning one. Anyway, we got a GOP net gain of roughly a dozen seats, more than the five-seat improvement they need from the 2020 results to win the House majority. This is a deliberately modest outlook, and Republicans could easily blow past it next year, while there are also scenarios under which Democrats are able to minimize those GOP gains and perhaps even save their majority. But our default expectation has been, and remains, a Republican House takeover next year." Here's a one sentence look at all 44 states that have redistricting coming up:
Alabama: (6-1 R currently, no change in number of seats): Barring judicial intervention, Alabama should continue to elect six Republicans and one Democrat to the House.
Arizona (5-4 D, no change): Republicans are happier with the composition of the state’s independent redistricting commission than they were a decade ago, but it’s unclear how the maps will change in this growing state.
Arkansas (4-0 R, no change): Republicans rule the roost here and should continue to enjoy a monopoly in the delegation.
California (42-11 D, losing a seat): The state’s independent redistricting commission needs to eliminate a district, and Democratic-heavy Los Angeles County is the likeliest location of the eliminated district.
Colorado (4-3 D, adding a seat): A new independent commission has already released draft maps, which likely will help Democrats add the state’s new seat.
Connecticut (5-0 D, no change): Don’t expect many big changes.
Florida (16-11 R, adding a seat): Despite state constitutional prohibitions on gerrymandering, Florida Republicans likely will attempt an aggressive gerrymander anyway, and a conservative state Supreme Court may not intervene to stop them.
Georgia (8-6 R, no change): Republicans likely will be able to flip at least one seat through redistricting, though they also must be mindful of rapid demographic change in metro Atlanta that could eventually unwind their pending 2022 gerrymander.
Hawaii (2-0 D, no change): Yawn.
Idaho (2-0 R, no change): Also yawn.
Illinois (13-5 D, losing a seat): Democrats likely will attempt an aggressive gerrymander, with the goal of a durable 14-3 majority in the delegation.
Indiana (7-2 R, no change): Republicans will want to shore up Rep. Victoria Spartz (R, IN-5) in the northern Indianapolis suburbs.
Iowa (3-1 R, no change): The state is known for having a nonpartisan process, but Republicans have the power to pass a plan that would, at minimum, favor their three incumbents.
Kansas (3-1 R, no change): The main focus is on whether Republicans will imperil the delegation’s lone Democrat, Rep. Sharice Davids of KS-3 in the Kansas City area.
Kentucky (5-1 R, no change): Republicans could try to target Rep. John Yarmuth (D, KY-3), but many top Republicans don’t seem to have the desire to do that.
Louisiana (5-1 R, no change): Minimal changes seem likely, though Democrats may pressure Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) to fight for a second Black-majority seat-- if he does, he may have to make his case in court
Maine (2-0 D, no change): The rural 2nd District should get slightly bluer, but it seems poised to host a competitive race next year, regardless.
Maryland (7-1 D, no change): National Democrats would love an 8-0 plan, but state Democrats also could opt to just clean up the contorted lines on the current 7-1 map.
Massachusetts (9-0 D, no change): With all nine seats solidly blue, incumbent preferences will likely inform the changes.
Michigan (7-7 tie, losing a seat): A new independent commission makes the state hard to handicap: Both parties probably will retain at least three or four firm seats, but the commission’s choices in populous Oakland County will be key.
Minnesota (4-4 tie, no changes): As is usually the case in redistricting years, Minnesota has divided government, meaning the process could fall to courts.
Mississippi (3-1 R, no change): Look for Mississippi to retain three solidly GOP seats, as well as a single Black-majority Democratic seat.
Missouri (6-2 R, no change): The overriding objective of Republicans, who control the process, will be to strengthen Rep. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2), though they may also consider going after Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D, MO-5).
Montana (1-0 R, gaining a seat): Democrats may be competitive in a light red western Montana-based seat, but the state should end up with two Trump-won districts.
Nebraska (3-0 R, no change): If a minimal change map is passed, Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) should retain a Joe Biden-won seat, but he has considerable crossover appeal.
Nevada (3-1 D, no change): Democrats will want to bolster their somewhat shaky 3-1 edge in the delegation-- they could unpack the Las Vegas-area NV-1 while leaving NV-2 as the sole red seat.
New Hampshire (2-0 D, no change): While it is hard to draw a Trump-won seat in the Granite State, Rep. Chris Pappas (D, NH-1) seems likely to get a lighter blue seat as a result of the Republican-controlled redistricting process.
New Jersey (10-2 D, no change): Democrats got their preferred tiebreaking member on the bipartisan commission that will draw the lines, but Republicans should still have some credible pickup targets when the dust settles.
New Mexico (2-1 D, no change): While the state recently passed an advisory commission, Democrats could ignore its recommendations to pass a 3-0 plan-- but satisfying their incumbents may be tricky.
New York (19-8 D, losing a seat): The Empire State has a new commission system, but Democrats have the power to circumvent it and aim for a gerrymander that could give them as large as a 23-3 edge statewide.
North Carolina (8-5 R, adding a seat): The new NC-14 could be drawn as a red-leaning seat, while the GOP could try to reclaim one-- or both-- of the seats they coughed up in a court-ordered redistricting last cycle.
Ohio (12-4 R, losing a seat): The state’s new, less partisan redistricting system may-- or may not-- constrain Republican gerrymandering power.
Oklahoma (5-0 R, no change): With four solid seats, Republicans will want to ensure that Oklahoma City’s OK-5-- which Democrats won in 2018 but lost last year to now-Rep Stephanie Bice (R)-- is less prone to flipping in the future.
Oregon (4-1 D, adding a seat): With Republicans having a seat at the table, it is possible that the state will add a GOP-leaning but still competitive seat.
Pennsylvania (9-9 tie, losing a seat): With divided government, the state Supreme Court could be drawing another map, which could eliminate a Republican seat but make one or more Democratic seats more Republican in the process.
Rhode Island (2-0 D, no change): The state somewhat surprisingly kept its second seat in reapportionment, which means Democrats were prevented from losing one of the state’s two safe Democratic seats.
South Carolina (6-1 R, no change): Palmetto State Republicans will focus on shoring up first-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R, SC-1), and they will be aided in doing so by population growth patterns.
Tennessee (7-2 R, no change): Rep. Jim Cooper (D, TN-5) is in major danger of seeing his Nashville-based district dismantled, which wuld allow Republicans to win an 8-1 edge in the delegation.
Texas (23-13 R, adding two seats): At a minimum, Texas Republicans will try to grab the state’s two new seats through gerrymandering, and they very well could do even better than that.
Utah (4-0 R, no change): A new commission does not take the power from the state’s dominant Republicans, who likely will try to shore up first-term Rep. Burgess Owens (R, UT-4) in the state’s only truly competitive district.
Virginia (7-4 D, no change): Democrats are lamenting the creation of a new commission system, which could prevent the shoring up of swing-district Reps. Elaine Luria (D, VA-2) and Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) and might even make them more vulnerable to Republican challengers.
Washington (7-3 D, no change): A commission system that has developed a reputation for protecting incumbents will draw the lines.
West Virginia (3-0 R, losing a seat): One of the state’s three Republicans will not be returning to the House in 2023 because of the state’s loss of a seat.
Wisconsin (5-3 R, no change): Divided government could throw redistricting to the state Supreme Court, and without major changes the now-open WI-3 will remain one of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the nation.