Exactly 3 weeks to the day in the chaotic GOP speaker-less dysfunctional House… the kind of nihilism that Trump thrives on. From Trump’s perspective, Gaetz did a good job for the campaign. And now Trump has vetoed Tom Emmer, the frontrunner. Why? Emmer hasn’t been sufficiently obsequious to the cult leader. There are PLENTY of reasons to disqualify Emmer but not being a Trump bootlicker isn’t one of them. Today the conference will vote— behind closed doors— on the 9 declared candidates. Every round of voting will kick one of the schlemiels off the island. The 9 in this round are Emmer, and Austin Scott (R-GA)— the only two who voted to certify the 2020 election results— plus election deniers Mike Johnson (R-LA), Kevin Hern (R-OK), Gary Palmer (R-AL), Byron Donalds (R-FL), Jack Bergman (R-MI), Pete Sessions (R-TX). Last night Dan Meuser (R-PA) dropped out.
Yesterday Rachel Bade reported that one anti-Emmer Republican-- presumably not Gaetz, though it sounds like him, because he's acting as a go-between with Trump for Emmer-- said “He’s openly hostile to Trump, which isn’t helpful since Trump will be the nominee. It’s laughable that he, at the end of the day, would end up being the speaker of the House. Even if he gets the majority of the majority, he will come far short for members who won’t vote for him on the floor.” Bade pointed out that Trump “hasn’t weighed in against Emmer publicly, and he isn’t yet making calls to whip opposition” and, she asserted, “Emmer world is pushing back hard on the whisper campaign against him, and his allies have a retort for every charge— from the fact that Emmer supported both of Trump’s presidential bids to one ally’s insistence that he’s ‘never heard him say a negative thing about Trump’ to the autographed photo of the two of them that Emmer keeps in his office. Rather, they say, the entire conflict has been concocted by his foes in the House who have grievances that have nothing to do with Trump.” Emmer blames Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Jim Banks (R-IN).
Over the weekend, Emmer called Trump to beg for his indulgence. But so did MAGAts Kevin Hern and Pete Sessions. After Emmer's call, Trump told his allies to hammer Emmer. They released a 216-page opposition research book! It's mostly old stuff being recirculated. Trump himself was somewhat unhinged yesterday in New Hampshire, making bizarre (as in senile) claims that Biden was indicted not him, comparing himself to Nelson Mandela and babbling that Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, is the president of Turkey. When asked by reporters about his spat with Emmer, he said "He's my biggest fan now because he told me yesterday. And he told me, 'I'm your biggest fan.' So I don't know about that."
Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan teased the idea that if the GOP conference doesn’t elect a speaker this week, there are enough Republicans who will be willing to work with the Democrats to enable a modified power-sharing arrangement. They wrote that “The reality is that the GOP Leaders are going to need Democratic support to avoid a shutdown, pass a new farm bill, reauthorize the FAA or do anything at this point… [W]hoever finally gets the speaker’s gavel will preside over a House Republican Conference riven by anger and bitterness. We’re not sure what, if anything, House Republicans can accomplish during the remainder of this Congress.” Here’s how the candidates for speaker voted on 5 key roll calls:
Yesterday, Nate Cohn warned that the race for speaker indicates that the GOP’s fascist wing could well get one of their own elected speaker— sooner than later. Jordan missed. But came very close. Cohn wrote that “The votes suggest that nearly half of congressional Republicans are sympathetic to Jordan and the conservative right wing, putting anti-establishment outsiders within striking distance of becoming the predominant faction in the House Republican conference. It suggests that the party’s right wing could, under circumstances not necessarily too different from those today, make a serious bid for House leadership— and win… No matter how you cut it, around 40 percent of Republicans backed Jordan at every stage. They backed him against a mainstream conservative leader like Scalise, and they backed him even after Jordan’s bid on the floor was clearly doomed… In the end, 20 to 25 Republicans opposed Jordan on the floor— in public. As a result of these public votes, this is the group we understand the best. It’s also a group that’s more complicated than you might think.”
Let’s start with the unsurprising stuff: This is a relatively moderate group. On average, they’re among the least conservative Republican members, around the 10th percentile among House Republicans as rated by DW-NOMINATE— an academic measure of member ideology based on congressional voting. They’re also from relatively competitive districts, with the typical dissenter hailing from a district that Trump won by about seven points, compared with about 25 points for non-dissenters.
But the dissenters weren’t all moderates and they’re not all from competitive districts either. Perhaps surprisingly, a quarter of the dissenters have already endorsed Trump for president in 2024. A similar number of dissenters voted against certifying the 2020 election result, and yet still opposed Jordan. None voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6. This is not a group of Never Trump moderates.
The number of conservative dissenters is a reminder that the opposition to Jordan wasn’t strictly about ideology. As my colleague Carl Hulse put it: Jordan was “brought down by the revolt of the rule followers.”
Conversely, most moderates ultimately did support Jordan for speaker. So did most members of the Problem Solvers caucus. A majority of Republicans from competitive districts voted for Jordan as well. Perhaps most astonishingly, the two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6 but managed to survive election challenges voted for Jordan.
Or put differently, many more moderates joined the “acquiescent rank and file” than joined the dissenters. The dissenters may have been enough to bring Jordan down, but in the future they might not be enough to prevent the party’s most conservative faction from winning power in Congress.
The Republicans are back in a closed door conference meeting today at 9 AM (ET). They'll keep casting secret ballots until either someone gets over 50% or until there are two left. To win, a candidate needs 113 votes (50% +1). Once they have a speaker-designee, McHenry will announce when there will be a floor vote to elect a speaker.
