This morning began with both Sabato's Crystal Ball and Politico (ok, ok... just National Review editor Rich Lowry at Politico), predicting Republican Party victory in the midterms. They sound like they've been absorbing all the NRCC propaganda that flows out every morning.
Lowry: "All indications are that GOP voters are united and energized and the party is doing what’s necessary to make Kevin McCarthy speaker in January 2023, which would instantly squash the never-very-plausible talk of Joe Biden being the next FDR or LBJ. The foundation of the GOP’s unity, of course, is that Donald Trump, with a very brief exception of the immediate aftermath of January 6, effortlessly maintained his control of the GOP. The anticipated civil war came and went with barely a shot fired... The Democratic polling outfit Democracy Corps just did a survey of 2022 battlegrounds that confirmed for Republicans this general picture. Fully three-quarters of the GOP are Trump loyalists or Trump-aligned. As Stanley Greenberg writes in a memo about the poll, among Republicans, 'the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68 percent. But Democrats’ engagement fell from 85 percent to 57 percent.' Greenberg calls the GOP base 'uniquely unified and engaged.'"
That said, a new poll from YouGov out this morning, shows that Biden would absolutely crush Trump in a 2024 rematch, 48-36% with 16% unsure. In November, Biden beat Trump 51.3% to 46.9%.
Last night Business Insider hit on a problem for Democrats that helps explain why all the gloom and doom about the midterms is for real-- a problem that can be traced back to sheer incompetence at the DCCC (the Republicans #1 top weapon-- never mentioned by Sabato or Lowry or Politico-- for prospects looking so bright for the GOP. The headline is pretty clear: Only half of rural voters know that Democrats voted to send them stimulus checks, new poll finds. Although not even one Republican voted for Biden's stimulus package that put money into the pockets of tens of millions of Americans, a Democratic super-PAC-- the Rural Objective PAC-- published a new poll showing that only 50% of voters associated the rescue checks with Democrats while about a third of voters associated the payments with Republicans. Our old friend JD Scholten, executive director of the PAC, noted that Democrats are "not connecting with these voters, even if we have great policy... This was one of the biggest investments we've seen in rural America since the New Deal. It's good policy. It should be good politics, too, but right now Democrats aren't taking advantage of it."
Erica Smith, the progressive running for the Democratic open seat Senate nomination in North Carolina, is the only Democrat in the crowded race to come from a rural background-- and to have represented a rural district in the state legislature. This morning she told me that "Rural voters have often been completely abandoned by the government. They've paid taxes yet watched as their roads have remained unpaved, as their healthcare has remained inadequate, and their clean air and clean water has been polluted by the day. They've been led to believe that their votes don't matter because no matter who they vote for, their lives have not tangibly improved. There's nothing more tangible than stimulus checks. This gives us a framework to display the ways in which government is capable of playing a role in improving people's lives. We're proudly campaigning on UBI and that's been made possible by stimulus checks that proved it was never a matter of price or feasibility, it was a matter of political will. We can change this country and we can revitalize rural America if we elect representatives who have the political will to fight for policy solutions big enough and bold enough to address the seismic challenges working Americans, and particularly rural communities, are facing."
Looks to me like the DCCC has a lot of work to do when you see responses like this:
If fact, later down the list, the pollster asked which party thet associate with "working for working people" and the results should shock the DCCC-- if they're awake-- 33% said Democrats and 39% said Republicans. Asked which party is controlled by corporate lobbyists, 34% said Democrats and 29% said Republicans. Which party works "to improve small towns and rural communities?" 26% said Democrats and 35% said Republicans. Which party is fighting to lower the cost of prescription drugs? 29% said Dems and 37% said Republicans. Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the DCCC should be fired today.
Another battle Democrats are losing in rural America-- which party is fighting to protect democracy? 31% said Democrats and 43% said Republicans! Which party panders to racists? 46% said Democrats and 30% said Republicans. Someone is not getting the story out properly. It will be too late to fire Maloney after the Democrats lose more seats in district with big rural populations they should win in Iowa, California, Texas, Washington...
Mikayla Ridley is a progressive activist who plans to take on right-wing extremist Claudia Tenney in NY-22, nationally one if the most evenly balanced districts between the two parties. The district has urban (Binghamton, Rome, Utica), suburban and rural areas. This morning Ridley told me that "Democratic politicians often ignore the needs of rural and small town Americans, expressing a general sentiment that they don't need those votes for a majority, so it's not necessary to campaign in those areas. But that's not how politics should work. You don't represent the people who vote for you; you represent every single person who lives in your district. As a Congresswoman, every voice in my district will matter to me and I will listen to every voice throughout my campaign and my time in office."
Jason Call, who's running for a congressional seat in northwest Washington against the kind of New Dem corfporate shill soiling the Democratic brand among rural voters, toldme just now that "American style hyperpartisanship has been well cultivated over 40 years through both an abandonment of the Fairness Doctrine and as a natural result of a political duopoly. It’s no surprise then that a large part of the electorate is uninformed about what goes on in government. The Republicans routinely fight against provisions that benefit the working class, and then claim victory for passing those provisions. But look, this is politics. The incumbent in WA-02 is cynically messaging that he supports 'bold, FDR-like' legislation, when he also has routinely voted against progressive measures, and is deeply entrenched with what FDR called the 'economic royalists.' As an #ActuallyProgressive grassroots candidate, we’re fighting not only to inform the low information rural conservative voters, but also the low information Democratic voters who never look beyond the D to see what’s really happening. We’ve got our work cut out for us, to be sure, but thankfully we’ve got a large base of enthusiastic volunteers ready to take word to the streets. Our goal is to have honest conversations with everyone we can, even if it means showing up to some Republican town halls."