Anti-Red Wave?
Let’s leave aside the 3 likely new anti-racism districts created by court orders in Alabama, Louisiana and, now, Florida. Without them, what districts could Democrats expect to pick up if 2024 is the blue wave it’s starting to look like?
Well, first of all, in a category of it’s own, is the mostly Nassau County district (NY-03) that was tricked into electing Brazilian fraud George Santos. Santos isn’t being elected to anything again and the chance of him even running is negligible. The Nassau County Republican Party and Nassau County Democratic Party are trying to get him to resign so that a special election is triggered and they each get their own pick of a candidate without a messy primary— Republican state Sen. Jack Martins and Democratic former Congressman Tom Suozzi. But however that works out NY-03 is the most endangered Republican-held district in the country. The PVI is D+2 but that isn’t even the point. The voters there are embarrassed and pissed off. The last time Suozzi beat Martins, he beat him by 6 points. Next year, if the boundaries stay the way they are now, Suozzi will win by double digits.
There are 5 other seats in New York the Republicans can kiss goodbye (in order of likelihood) in a wave election, under the current boundaries:
NY-17- Mike Lawler (D+3)
NY-04- Anthony D’Esposito (D+5)
NY-22- Brandon Williams (D+1)
NY-19- Marc Molinaro (even)
NY-01- Nick LaLota (R+3)
The other state where the Republicans can lose their asses— and their control of the House— is California. There are 6, maybe 7 or even 8, seats that a blue wave will wipe away, although candidate recruitment could be more of a cataclysmic problem in California than in any other states, the state party and DCCC chaining themselves to loser candidates like Rudy Salas (CA-22) and Adam Gray (CA-13) in pretty solid blue districts. The districts the Democrats can take in a wave (in order of probability):
CA-27- Mike Garcia (D+4)
CA-45- Michelle Steel (D+2)
CA-41- Ken Calvert (R+3)
CA-40- Young Kim (R+2)
CA-13- John Duarte (D+4)
CA-03- Kevin Kiley (R+4)
CA-22- David Valadao (D+5)
CA-23- Jay Obernolte (R+8)
So those are the 2 big treasure troves for the Democrats in a wave, the unknowables being the new district lines in New York and how bad the candidates will be the Democrats are going to inflict on themselves for no good reason in California. There are at least 34 other reasonable pickup targets around the country if the wave is big enough. Again, these are in order of likelihood, starting in Oregon where Jamie McLeod Skinner is poised to win the district back:
OR-05- Lori Chavez DeRemer (D+2)
CO-03- Lauren Boebert (R+7)
NJ-07- Tom Kean (R+1)
MI-10- John James (R+3)
AZ-01- David Schweikert (R+2)
IA-03- Zach Nunn (R+3)
FL-27- Maria Salazar (even PVI)
AZ-06- Juan Ciscomani (R+3)
NE-02- Don Bacon (even PVI)
WI-03- Derrick Van Orden (R+4)
PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick (even PVI)
TX-15- Monica De La Cruz (R+1)
VA-02- Jen Kiggans (R+2)
WI-01- Bryan Steil (R+3)
PA-10- Scott Perry (R+5)
IA-01- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R+3)
FL-13- Anna Paulina Luna (R+6)
VA-01- Rob Wittman (R+6)
FL-28- Carlos Gimenez (R+2)
SC-01- Nancy Mace (R+7)
MT-01- Ryan Zinke (R+6)
OH-10- Mike Turner (R+4)
NC-09- Richard Hudson (R+6)
FL-15- Laurel Lee (R+4)
MI-04- Bill Huizinga (R+5)
AZ-02- Eli Crane (R+6)
TN-05- Andy Ogles (R+9)
FL-07- Cory Mills (R+5)
IA-02- Ashley Hinson (R+4)
NJ-02- Jeff Van Drew (R+5)
MO-02- Ann Wagner (R+7)
TX-23- Tony Gonzales (R+5)
NY-11- Nicole Malliotakis (R+6)
VA-05- Bob Good (R+7)
Many of these incumbents— though absolutely not all— are being pushed into extremist positions by the Trump campaign/defense team and by the extremist ideologues in the “Freedom” Caucus. Leave aside how mind-boggling Trump's unpopularity is outside of the MAGA movement. The extremists' demands on McCarthy, an extremely weak speaker with an extremely weak hand, are abhorent to swing voters— independents and even non-MAGAt mainstream Republicans-- abortion being just one very big one. Swing voters are not excited about impeaching Biden, abandoning Ukraine, defunding federal agencies, going to war against Mexico (yep, that's now a thing in the MAGAverse) or shutting down the government, and are repulsed by Republican leaders like Marjorie Traitor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar and Lauren Boebert. Nor were they excited to see an ugly and disgusting scene like this playing out in central Florida this weekend: