Big Wins In Pennsylvania And New Hampshire Yesterday
There were two consequential special elections yesterday. We wrote about the one in Pennsylvania because it was substantively important. With a 101-101 tied state House, the winner in HD-21 (Allegheny County) would determine which party controlled the chamber. Democrat Lindsay Powell beat Republican Erin Autenreith, 65.3% to 34.7%. OK, good; that’s in line with what was predicted, although Powell won a little stronger than was expected. Last year popular incumbent Sara Innamorato was reelected with a nice healthy 63.6%. In 2016, Hillary won 57% of the district and Biden beat Trump with 60%. John Fetterman won it with 63%. Powell’s strong win-- better than any of them-- was a good sign in a solid blue district.
But the more surprising special election was in New Hampshire. Last April corrupt Republican Benjamin Bartlett resigned, claiming health problems but seeking to avoid an investigation. The district, Rockingham 1 in the southeast corner of the state (Northwood and Nottingham) is a basically red district. It has 3 seats and last year all three were won by Republicans. These New Hampshitre House districts are tiny— each of the 400 New Hampshire legislators representing around 3,300 people.
Hal Rafter was the only candidate in the August 1 Democratic primary. The GOP primary had 2 candidates. The winner, James Guzofski had 230 votes. Yesterday, when Rafter faced off against Guzofski, the result was an unexpected sold win for a Democrat in red territory. Trump won this district both times he ran. GOP alarm bells should be ringing-- and not just in New Hampshire. This is very much what a Trumpified MAGA Republican Party looks like at the polls.
Rafter's win doesn’t flip control of the House… but it’s getting close. The balance of power stood at 199 Republicans and 196 Democrats with 2 pro-marijuana independents, ex-Democrat Shaun Filiault and ex-Republican Dan Hynes. After yesterday it stands at 198 Republicans and 197 Democrats (with 2 independents). The next special coming up is in blue territory-- and that is expected to tie up the House, 198-198.
More important, this is just the latest example of Democrats over-performing in special elections— in a year when they would be expected to under-perform (which is normally what happens when a Democrat is in the White House, especially one as unpopular as Biden is). ABC News reported just how consistent this over-performance has been. Of 30 special elections since last January, 24 have exhibited Democratic over-performance and just 6 have shown Republicans over-performing, 4 of them in districts where the Democratic candidate won anyway. The other 2 districts where Republicans over-performed were in backward red rural MAGA districts in Georgia where Democrats have no chance to win under any circumstance.
The Pennsylvania and New Hampshire specials yesterday showed, respectively, a D+13 swing in a blue district and a D+18 swing in a red district. That’s what a blue wave forming looks like. Add to that the kind of chaos and dysfunction Trump is forcing Congress into for his own electoral calculations and we can see the Democrats not just holding their thin Senate majority (especially if Matt Rosendale is the Republican nominee in Montana) but ousting something like two dozen House Republicans next year— and not just in the districts that Biden won in 2020. For example, in 2020 Trump won Ken Calvert’s R+3 Southern California district with a 1.1 point plurality. There’s every reason in the world to predict that Biden will beat Trump in this district next year— and that Democrat Will Rollins will beat Calvert, having lost to him in the midterms last year by just 4.6 points. This ad started running in the district this morning. And similar ads started running against John James in Michigan and Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, two obvious targets for the Democrats.
The next big test will be the Virginia legislative elections next month. Please consider helping flip the Virginia House of Delegates and holding or expanding their thin majority the state Senate by contributing $5 to each of the Blue America-endorsed progressive candidates here. Bonus: if the Democrats do win back the House and hold the Senate, that will be the end of Glenn Youngkin's duplicitous political career.