Virginia Democrats nominated a shitty, uninspiring conservative candidate, Terry McAuliffe. Enough Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents decided to stay hime rather than play the lesser of two evils game. That allowed a wealthy businessman with no record, Glenn Youngkin, win a narrow victory— 1,663,596 (50.6%) to 1,600,116 (48.7%). 813,452 Biden voters didn’t come out and vote for McAuliffe. Desperate Republicans immediately started promoting him as a 2024 alternative to the fascism embodied by Trump and DeSantos. Remember, though, Biden won 54.1% of Virginia voters and Youngkin just 50.6%. So Youngkin’s mandate… not as sweeping as he likes to pretend.
Yesterday, Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Calvert noted that Democrats in the state legislature have pledged to block his top two agenda items: a 15-week abortion ban and a billion in tax cuts for the wealthy. In 2021 the Democrats flipped two Republican state Senate seats to take control of that body— Democrat Ghazala Hashmi beating MAGAt incumbent Glen Sturtevant and Democrat John Bell winning Republican Dick Black’s seat when he retired— giving them a 21-19 advantage. It’s worth noting that the 7th district (Virginia Beach) is now open because Jen Kiggans won Elaine Luria’s congressional seat. In 2021, though Kiggans barely won the seat— 29,609 (50.36%) to 29,098 (49.49%). The special election is January 10, pitting Virginia Beach City Councilman and former NFL player Aaron Rouse (quasi-D) against anti-Choice crackpot Kevin Adams (R).
As for the lower chamber, the Republicans regained the majority from the conservative Democrats. But the way the new House of Delegates districts are drawn, it would be very hard for the Democrats to not win back a majority-- hard but not impossible. Virginia Democrats certainly know how to self-sabotage themselves. Meanwhile, a couple of fringe GOP extremists in the General Assembly— Sen. Amanda Chase and Delegate Marie March— have written total abortion bans meant to make Youngkin’s own ban look vaguely “moderate,” which it isn’t. The Youngkin abortion ban is a giant step towards ending Choice in Virginia.
Calvert wrote that “A year into his term, Youngkin is trying another balancing act: notching legislative victories that require at least some Democratic support while keeping conservatives on his side. The abortion bill is perhaps his biggest challenge. Current Virginia law allows abortion through the end of the second trimester, or about 26 weeks, and thereafter only if the mother’s life or health is at serious risk. After the fall of Roe v Wade earlier this year, many conservatives across the nation embraced restrictive abortion laws. Youngkin said he would back a bill to outlaw abortions after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest or to protect the mother’s life. ‘Virginians elected a pro-life governor,’ Youngkin said in an interview. But he suggested that outlawing abortion earlier than 15 weeks, as has been done in states such as Tennessee, would be unattainable even if he wanted it, adding that he is ‘very aware of Virginia’s overall state of politics.’ President Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020.”
Youngkin noted that he has gotten Democrats to help him pass his agenda before. “We got a lot done last year,” he said, noting bipartisan support for such measures as the passage of $4 billion in tax cuts and salary increases for police and teachers. He hopes he can strike a deal on $1 billion more in tax cuts.
But this time around, Democratic state Sen. L. Louise Lucas, who serves as Senate president pro tempore and chairs the education and health committee, has pledged to block both of Youngkin’s top 2023 agenda items. She called any changes to the state’s abortion law a nonstarter and said the state can’t afford his proposed tax cuts. Democrats have a 21-18 majority in the Senate, with one vacancy to be filled in a special election, while Republicans control the House.
“It’s going to be a rough year for him,” Lucas said of the governor.
An October poll by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University found that 58% of registered voters oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and that 67% prefer abortion to be legal in most or all cases. At the same time, 51% said they supported or strongly supported a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.
Lucas, though, said her caucus will line up against the measure. “We’re going to crash and burn his bill,” she said.
Youngkin said it would take Democratic help in the Senate to pass the bill. “But I do believe that we have a reasonable chance,” he said.
Half of Virginia voters approve of the job Youngkin is doing, according to the Wason Center poll. He fared better than President Biden, whose approval rating in the state was 39%. While 42% of voters said Virginia was going in the right direction, just 22% said the same of the U.S., the poll found.
The 2023 legislative session starts Jan. 11 and comes after Youngkin traveled extensively ahead of November’s midterms campaigning for Republicans, several of whom lost. The trips fueled speculation he is laying groundwork for a potential 2024 presidential bid.
…Democrats have pounced on his political travel. “It’s amazing that you would fight so hard to get a job, and then a few months into that job, you’re out campaigning for a new job,” said state lawmaker Don Scott, the House minority leader.
Youngkin’s rising profile elicited an attack from Trump, who has announced a 2024 presidential bid. “Young Kin (now that’s an interesting take. Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it?) in Virginia couldn’t have won without me,” Trump wrote last month on his social-media platform Truth Social.
Youngkin declined to comment on whether he thinks Trump remains the Republican Party leader and is the best candidate for the 2024 nomination.
…As well as pushing an additional $1 billion in tax cuts, Youngkin wants to boost spending in several areas. His budget plan includes more than $230 million to overhaul the state’s behavioral health system, and $175 million for recruitment, expanded career pathways and bonuses for teachers, nurses and law-enforcement officers.
Lucas said she supports his proposals for higher pay for teachers and first responders but doesn’t see how that would be possible with further tax cuts. “Where’s the money supposed to come from?” she said.
Youngkin, a former private-equity executive, said that while he expects a recession starting in the second quarter and lasting at least six months, his budget plan incorporates that possibility and allows for adjustments if revenues falter. “This is what business people do,” he said, adding: “We plan for downsides and then we work for upsides.”
Victoria Luevanos is the progressive Democrat running for a state Senate seat (SD-20) in Virginia Beach, Accomack County, a bit of Norfolk City and Northampton County. Her perspective is very different from the anti-Choice incumbent she’s taking on. Last nights told me that “We can agree that we are all TIRED of ‘not-a-doctor’ legislators playing God and working on behalf of extremist religious interests in suppressing women’s rights across America. Look at what we just learned about Texas maternal mortality; up to 90% of the deaths may have been preventable and severe complications from pregnancy and childbirth increased significantly. At least 118 women dead, and nearly 200 children were left without a mother; obstetric hemorrhage was the leading cause of pregnancy-related death, most commonly ectopic pregnancies; suicide and homicide represented 27% of pregnancy-related deaths. Child/Teen pregnancy rates seem to only rise in areas with abortion bans too, but there is no follow through for protecting women and children. We need to keep the government out of people’s homes and protect civil liberties, no matter what; Virginians would hate to see their state stoop to such lows for women and children.”
She also told me she agrees with Del. Vivian Watts (D-Fairfax), “who said she hadn’t heard complaints that Virginia’s corporate tax rate is exceptionally high or burdensome. Small business needs the assistance to get their businesses off the ground and compete, as well as the long overdue individual income tax cuts, but for Youngkin to say that he’s creating tax relief for everyone and then gives corporations additional tax cuts thus providing a single organization an unfair advantage over everyone else, that not real relief. The Corporate Income Tax has been 6% since 1972; one of the driving forces behind this erosion of the corporate income tax is large corporations, especially those that operate in multiple states, can deploy teams of accountants to exploit differences in tax policy across the states in which they operate and reduce or eliminate the taxes they pay in any given state. As a result, critical changes in business models and practices have been made to remove the ability to adequately account for business activity, the creation of numerous special tax breaks, and a growing share of total income taxes paid by individuals as opposed to the shrinking share paid by corporations. The working class is negatively impacted by lobbyists using NDAs to prevent politicians from saying who secured billions in state handouts. When you add corporate tax cuts on top of existing business subsidy programs, it's fundamentally undemocratic and creates a false sense of tax fairness for workers.”
And if you like the way Victoria Luevanos sounds and would like to see her in the Virginia state Senate, please consider making an end of the year contribution here. Remember, Virginia has election in 2023, not 2024.
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