Two 2026 Hot, Wild Primaries— A Democratic One In Michigan, A Republican One In Texas

Actual Cornyn ad

We’ll start with Texas since it’s potentially much more consequential, possibly even leading to a Senate seat flipping red to blue. The GOP Senate primary pits conservative establishment incumbent John Cornyn against grotesquely corrupt MAGAt— the way they like ‘em in Texas— Ken Paxton, the combative Attorney General. 

The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund, which is backing Cornyn, just released a poll showing Paxton pulverizing him— and then far more vulnerable to a November defeat. Yesterday, Ally Mutnick reported that Cornyn trails Paxton by 16 points, 56-40%. An d in a three-way contest with some guy named Wesley Hunt, who is considering a run, Paxton is ahead 44% to 34% with Hunt at 19%.

The survey also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), who is mulling another Senate run, but isn’t even the strongest of potential Democratic candidates (Beto O’Rourke). “Cornyn,” wrote Mutnick, “led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point. Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans— that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election.”

Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002. Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It’s not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.

Cornyn’s campaign said the veteran GOP senator believes he will win next year’s Republican primary no matter what early polls show.

“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as president and continues to be his close legislative ally,” Cornyn’s senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said.

“In ten months when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win,” Mackowiak added.

Here’ SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson with some pro-Cornyn spin:

“The numbers don’t lie— John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton. Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets, and it’s clear he would risk delivering the Senate majority to Chuck Schumer.”

It’s also worth noting that President Donald Trump’s job approval in the poll was right-side up by 2 points, according to the people briefed on the results. That suggests the sample was more moderate. Trump won the state by 14 points last November.

Yes, Trump won by 14, but his 2 point favorability doesn’t necessarily mean the sample is more moderate. It could also mean that Trump’s disastrous policies are even starting to reach the most backward voters in the country— Texas MAGAts.

Last week, after the release of two other polls, the Houston Chronicle reported that “Cornyn is in a race he can’t win, and instead could force a primary fight that costs millions of dollars and ends up bruising the eventual GOP nominee ahead of the general election… State Sen. Paul Bettencourt (R-Houston) said it’s time for someone to have a serious talk with Cornyn about whether he really wants to go through with another campaign that could quickly turn negative and costly. ‘If I was an incumbent senator with these types of polling numbers, I probably wouldn’t run because you can’t win,’ Bettencourt said. Cornyn has said he's not afraid of a primary against Paxton or anyone else. His campaign issued a similar statement Wednesday touting his easy primary victories over the decades and said he is ‘110% committed to running a vigorous reelection campaign.’  So far, his campaign has heavily targeted Paxton, using social media to call the third-term Republican ‘a fraud’ and alluding to Paxton having an affair that was confirmed during his impeachment trial in the Texas Senate.”

Could a Democrat actually take the seat— even in a national blue wave cycle? “Democrats,” wrote Jeremy Wallace, “are increasingly liking their chances in 2026 if Paxton were to be the GOP nominee, given his low approval numbers among all voters and the fact that it would be a midterm cycle that is historically tougher for candidates from the president’s party. Democrat Beto O’Rourke just last week told a crowd in Denton that he hadn’t closed off the idea of running in 2026, and he told the Dallas Morning News that Paxton as the nominee would be a ‘gift’ to the party. Other Democrats could be in the mix, including former U.S. Rep. Collin Allred of Dallas, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and state Sens. Nathan Johnson of Dallas and Roland Guitierrez of San Antonio. Allred has said he’s seriously considering getting in the race, and Castro has picked up his statewide travel, making stops in Houston and McAllen over the last couple of weeks… Trump was asked by reporters two weeks ago if he would endorse either Paxton or Cornyn in the race, but said he wasn’t ready, adding  that ‘we don’t know who else is running.’ He could be referring to Hunt, who has been featured in more than $1.8 million in TV ads running statewide. The group behind them, Standing For Texas PAC, has also been running spots in West Palm Beach, Florida— home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, according to the Associated Press. Hunt has also been running his own ads on conservative talk radio programs in Texas, trying to spread his name and tout his support of Trump.”

The Michigan primary is for one of the two Detroit seats and we looked at it briefly last week when progressive Donavan McKinney jumped into the race against unpopular crackpot Shri Thanedar. What’s happened since then is that yesterday the other Detroit member of Congress, progressive icon Rashida Tlaib, endorsed McKinney. 

Melissa Burke noted that “It's highly unusual for a sitting member of Congress to endorse a challenger to another member of Congress from their own party and within the Michigan delegation. ‘Centering community not only means standing up to corporate donors and lobbyists, but also means fighting to address community needs through robust community services and responsive representation. This type of leadership is missing for residents in the 13th and I know Donavan will bring it— I’ve already seen him do so as State Representative,’ Tlaib said in a statement.’I’m proud to have Donavan’s back because I know he’ll always have Michiganders’ backs— and because I know when it comes to real representation, Michigan’s 13th district deserves better.’… He also has the backing of the progressive group Justice Democrats that helped elect Tlaib and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez of New York, and the endorsements of 14 current and former state lawmakers, many of them representing parts of Thanedar’s district that covers a swath of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes and Downriver communities.”

Tlaib has publicly criticized Thanedar previously, most notably in the fall of 2023 when she said the congressman was “busy posting memes,” while his residents were calling her office asking for my assistance because "he is absent from doing his job," Tlaib said at the time.

…Tlaib and Thanedar also have clashed over Israel. Tlaib has long criticized the Israeli government and called for an end to U.S. security aid and weapons sales to Israel.

Thanedar has become a supporter of Israel, and his last campaign was supported by pro-Israel lobby groups.