Tomorrow… All Eyes Will Be On Wisconsin (Florida Too), Where There Are Trump, Musk, DOGE Referendums

Upside-down world comes to Wisconsin

One thing billionaires have in common is the belief that laws are for common people, not for them— and there’s no better avatar of that position than the free-wheeling richest billionaire in the world: South African Nazi Elon Musk. He makes his own rules and uses his money to make sure he’s never held to account. That’s going to be reenforced or stood on its head in Wisconsin on Tuesday, where’s he’s spent around $20 million to buy a Supreme Court seat for a corrupt conservative, Brad Schimel. $20 million is chump change for Musk but this race is important to him and if Schimel loses— polls are exactly tied— Musk will be widely blamed. Let’s start with the dubious legality or what he’s up to. Rick Hasen noted that “The federal vote-buying prohibition does not apply when there are no federal candidates on the ballot… Wisconsin law makes payment for turnout illegal. In particular, under section 12.11(1m)(a)(2), it is a crime to ‘offer[]…anything of value…to…any elector…in order to induce any elector to: (a) Vote or refrain from voting.’ This is separate and apart from a prohibition on voting or refraining to vote ‘for or against any particular person.’… Musk’s activities appear to violate the plain meaning of the statute. He’s offering a chance to win a million dollars, which is a thing of value, and it’s only offered to people who have voted. One might say he’s not inducing people, but instead rewarding them. I don’t think this helps, because the statute likely covers rewarding as well—think of people who decide to vote in order to attend the talk for the lottery chance to win a million dollars… Trump’s DOJ certainly won’t prosecute him.”

We’ll have to see if Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul does. The Democratic Party has a different plan in mind— a spotlight. Yesterday, for example, the DNC ran this ad in 7 top local newspapers across the state— the Chippewa Herald, Manitowoc Herald Times Reporter, Beloit Daily News, Daily Jefferson County Union, Janesville Gazette, Watertown Daily Times and the Oshkosh Northwestern. They’re tying Schimel to Musk, villainizing Musk and making the election about him almost as much as about Schimel.

If the newspaper ads don’t make the point strongly enough, does this statewide TV spot do it for you? It’s meant to turn out Democratic voters and persuade persuadables that Musk is very bad news for Wisconsin. I'm persuaded!

Reporting for the NY Post last week, Christian Schneider, dubbed the Wisconsin election the most important of 2025— so more important than gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, more important than the congressional special elections in Florida on the same day and even more important the the NY mayoralty. He wrote that Democrats are making the race a referendum on Musk and DOGE. “Musk has pumped millions of dollars into groups backing Schimel, so if Democrats successfully paint the conservative candidate as a Musk puppet, this strategy will undoubtedly spread nationwide. If liberals succeed in defeating Schimel based on DOGE’s handiwork, it might actually be Democrats who keep Musk in the news to use his influence as a talking point in the 2026 midterms. The contest is also an early look at how voters feel about Trump’s second term. The president has won Wisconsin twice— each time with fewer than 20,000 votes, or less than 1% of the statewide tally. Trump endorsed Schimel on Friday, calling Crawford a ‘Radical Left Liberal’ who has been soft on crime, and effectively tying Schimel to his own agenda. ‘And if she wins, the Movement to restore our Nation will bypass Wisconsin,’ Trump warned. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted in February showed Wisconsin residents split on Trump’s job performance, with 51% disapproving and 48% approving. (Musk fared worse: Only 41% of respondents viewed him favorably.)”

The NY Times focused on what Musk is up to this weekend in Wisconsin per se. Is he bringing his golden chainsaw? Big Balls?

“Musk,” wrote Theodore Schleifer, “is reprising a few of the tactics he used in the final weeks of the presidential election, when he traveled across Pennsylvania to assist Trump’s campaign with a series of town halls. He is once again issuing personal checks to those who sign a petition that his super PAC is circulating to registered voters and awarding $1 million randomly in sweepstakes-like gifts to signers. (Musk’s latest petition in Wisconsin is opposed to what he calls ‘the actions of activist judges.’) Musk is also offering a new twist on at least some of these petition payouts: making them conditional not only on signing the petition and being a registered voter, but also on having already voted, a legally contentious escalation of his program. Musk said in his Friday post that he would ‘personally hand over two checks for a million dollars each in appreciation for you taking the time to vote.’ Musk’s super PAC has awarded a $1 million check to one Wisconsin voter who signed the petition… Musk has been stepping up his words and his spending in aid of Judge Schimel, who if elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court could weigh in on abortion policy, redistricting and even Tesla’s business in the state. Though Musk and allied groups have spent more than $20 million on the campaign, he expressed doubt about the chances of victory, saying on Thursday that Judge Schimel’s odds were ‘difficult, but not impossible.’”

As for Florida, last night Julia Manchester wrote that “Republicans are pulling out all the stops ahead of the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District as worries of a narrower-than-expected margin grow in the district President Trump won by more than 30 points in November. Trump called into two tele-town halls for state Sen. Randy Fine (R) in an effort to drive out the Republican base ahead of Tuesday. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s America PAC spent roughly $10,200 in the race earlier this week and dropped another $66,000 into the race on Thursday.”

More so in Wisconsin, but tomorrow will be a referendum on Musk, on DOGE and on Trump’s chaotic first 2 horrible months in office.