Trump Has More Power In The House Than MM Does
Hear the loud grumbling from the far right fringe of the GOP? Just installed Freedom Caucus Bob Good is leading his faction against the deal that MAGA Mike made with Chuck Schumer to keep the government funded at the level McCarthy and Biden had agreed to last year. That deal was part of the reason why McCarthy was deposed as speaker. Will MAGA Mike suffer the same fate now?
Trump wants the government shut down so he can campaign on blaming Biden for the chaos and dysfunction caused by himself and his MAGAt followers. Polls show that nearly as many voters will blame Biden for a shutdown as will blame the Republicans. Those polls may or may not be accurate but Trump is an expert at manipulating public opinion. Biden isn’t. Google’s artificial intelligence bot, Bard, claims to have seen soon to be released polling from YouGov that shows “29% of voters would blame Republicans in Congress for a shutdown, while 14% blamed Democrats in Congress and 13% blamed President Biden. 32% blamed everyone equally.” The problem with those figures, though, is that Bard is a notorious liar who makes shit up… so we’ll see.
I want to mention that currently, the YouGov poll finds that among registered voters Trump’s favorability is 46% (52% unfavorable; 54% unfavorable with independents). Biden is in worse shape— 44% favorable and 55% unfavorable (68% unfavorable among independents). In a head to head rematch the 2 are exactly tied— 44% each and in a generic congressional election, the GOP leads the Democrats 42% to 44%. Some questions related to Jan 6:
Did Biden legitimately win the election? 66% yes, 34% no
Was the J-6 riot legitimate political discourse or a violent insurrection? 35% legitimate, 52% insurrection
Capitol takeover? 17% approve, 73% disapprove
Did Señor T incite violence? 46% Yes, 42% No
Was Trump responsible for the takeover? 53% Yes, 40% No
Did Trump do anything illegal (J-6 only)? 45% yes,42% No
Is Trump eligible to run? 48% Yes, 43% No
Trump hasn’t commented publicly on the deal yet but he will likely determine its fate— and the fate of MAGA Mike (if MM was freelancing). MAGA Mike didn't manage to change much the deal between McCarthy and Biden but he did get two bones for the far right:
Congress will accelerate a $10 billion IRS funding cut from FY2025 to FY2024.
The deal rescinds $6.1 billion in COVID-relief funds.
Aside from Bob Good’s attack on the deal, extremists like Chip Roy (TX), Andy Biggs (AZ), Matt Rosendale (MT) and Matt Gaetz (FL) have indicated they’ll oppose it and try to trigger a government shutdown. Most MAGAts are waiting to see what Trump says before taking a public position. Those opposed can try screwing it up by voting against the rules to bring 4 super-crucial appropriations bills to the floor— Agriculture, Energy and Water, Military Construction-VA and Transportation-HUD. Funding expires in 10 days. That means, MM will need lots of Democratic votes to move forward under suspension. That would make the case against him to the MAGA faction. There is a growing feeling that MAGA Mike is in way over his head and is the wrong guy for the job.
Last night DeSantis decided to butt in and oppose the compromise as well: “By agreeing to this Establishment budget deal, House Republicans are selling out everything that they ran on in 2022. They promised to change the way Washington operates. They said that they were going to hold these agencies accountable. Instead, they’re funding the status quo into perpetuity over fear of a ‘government shutdown.’ We need a President who will use the bully pulpit, lay a marker down, and stand strong to deliver results for our voters. I will do that— just like I’ve done as governor.”
