Threatening Doesn’t Seem To Be Working For Him
Unlike the White House, which remained the seat of the U.S. government throughout the Civil War, Confederate President Jefferson Davis lacked a single, permanent residence. The constant relocation— from Montgomery to Richmond to Danville and Charlotte— due to the war's shifting dynamics reflected the Confederacy's challenges in establishing a stable governing infrastructure. I guess Trump has Mar-a-Lago and, ultimately, Moscow (not Idaho). Had Davis been executed instead of being allowed to skip out to Montreal, with the backing on robber barons like Cornelius Vanderbilt, and then England, Trump and his coterie of supporters— from Marjorie Traitor Greene and Matt Gaetz to Elise Stefanik and Tommy Tuberville— might not be ditzing around inciting civil war today.
In his column for the New Republic yesterday, Greg Sargent noted that not all Republican electeds are eager to follow Trump down this road. “Elise Stefanik no doubt thought it was shrewd to describe the rioters who attacked the Capitol as ‘January 6 hostages.’ This sort of talk hits a sweet trifecta for a GOP leader with seemingly limitless ambition. It reassures the right-wing media that the GOP leadership is fully behind Donald Trump. It fires up the MAGA base’s small-dollar donors. And it infuriates the libs, which excites the right-wing media and MAGA voters all over again. But it turns out vulnerable House Republicans aren’t too thrilled about Stefanik’s barb. The Washington Post reports that many are distancing themselves from it, a sign that being associated with pro-insurrection sentiments is politically dangerous in swing districts across the country…The way vulnerable Republicans ran from this is telling. ‘They’re criminal defendants, not hostages,’ said Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. ‘I don’t defend people who hit cops, who vandalized our Capitol,’ added Nebraska’s Don Bacon, pointedly adding of the ‘hostage’ language: ‘The broad, broad electorate doesn’t like it.’ Given that Fitzpatrick and Bacon represent two of the 17 districts held by Republicans that Trump lost in 2020, that’s an indication of how politically outside the mainstream it is to deny the gravity of January 6 and smear the justice system’s response to it as illegitimate.”
[L]ast year, Trump expressly called on House Republicans to shut down the government to defund his prosecutions. They didn’t, but at the very least, the actuality of Trump’s trial unfolding before the nation will cause him to ramp up his entreaties into 2024. And it may well be harder for Republicans to resist them during a presidential election year.
“It’s about to get real for House Republicans that Trump is going to criminal trial before the election,” legal scholar Matthew Seligman, who tracks the timeline of Trump’s trials for Just Security, told me. “That will put them under intense pressure to try to derail the prosecution.”
…Democrats predict Republicans won’t be able to resist Trump’s pressure. “They’re going to continue to defend him,” Representative Suzan DelBene, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told me. “That will cost them at the ballot box.”
A recent Washington Post poll found that 57 percent of Americans say the Justice Department is holding Trump accountable under the law, as opposed to targeting him politically. Among independents that number is also 57 percent. Similar majorities believe Trump is probably or definitely guilty.
I believe we’re underestimating another factor here: Trump will soon be facing a jury of his peers. They can’t be smeared as stooges of the “deep state.” The spectacle of Trump facing the judgment of ordinary Americans— just like any American accused of crimes— is likely to mean something powerful to swing voters.
A certain strain in our punditry holds that many Americans question the legitimacy of the Trump prosecutions because they no longer trust our institutions or because of some other social malaise. It’s reasonable to lament the state of our institutions. But what if the prosaic reality is that many in the middle of the country are already prepared to accept a guilty verdict for Trump as correct and legitimate?
It’s heartening that vulnerable Republicans felt politically obliged to defend the legitimacy of our justice system simply because Stefanik unfurled a dumb MAGA talking point. Now imagine how whipsawed they’ll be if Trump goes on trial— followed by Trump and the MAGA-aligned media furiously demanding that the GOP unanimously declare the proceedings wholly and irredeemably corrupt. Whether or not a conviction is secured by Election Day, all this could worsen GOP divisions— and threaten GOP control of the House in ways few have anticipated.
