Blame The Wreck In The House On Trump
The title of John Harris’ essay yesterday— Trump Watches While His Party Implodes— uses the word “his” to describe Trump’s relationship the GOP. It could be that he’s a member or it could be that he owns it lock, stock and barrel, the way he owned Trump Steaks (2007-2009), Trump, Airlines (1989-1992), Trump University (2004-2020) and Trump Vodka (2006-2011). Or maybe Harris wasn’t thinking about it at all. I, however interpret that his to be describing the latter.
There was never a moment in which Trump cared about the Republican Party outside of its utility as a vehicle for his own… let’s see— his own what? You chose. His own ambition, his own ego, his own power, glory, agenda, interests, self aggrandizement, personal empire-building. Any will do. Once you figure that easy multiple choice question out, I have a related but slightly more complex one for you— why do the mandarins of the GOP still allow Trump to lord it over them? Is it fear of his zombie base? Is it because they agree with his xenophobic, racist, low-tax-for-the-rich agenda?Or maybe because there is no viable alternative?
Harris wasn’t pondering any of that. He was looking at Trump’s response to the spectacle of the speaker battle. Trump, of course, sees it only in terms of how it relates to himself. He was furious that Scalise garnered more votes than, Jordan, the schlemiel he had endorsed. So he did what he could— successfully— to undercut Scalise even after his internal victory… weaponizing the word “cancer” at every opportunity. “Trump,” wrote Harris, “could have shown his clout and put Scalise in his debt by telling the GOP it was time to close ranks, especially amid war in Israel. Certainly, Scalise supporters were vainly hoping he would do just that. The former president wasn’t interested. Instead, he gave an interview to Fox News host Brian Kilmeade saying he likes Scalise well enough, ‘but the problem, you know, Steve is a man that is in serious trouble from the standpoint of his cancer.’” Hours later, an embittered Scalise dropped out of the race.
Trump is the only leader with a durable following within the modern Republican Party. That’s true even as the GOP is filled with people who quietly wish he would go away and a smaller number of would-be leaders who loudly advocate for that— so far to negligible effect. So far, no Republican has managed to emerge as a genuine leader in the Trump era— not by seeking alliance with him, nor by standing up to him, nor by trying keep a safe distance from him.
If Trump is a would-be authoritarian, the House drama shows that he is not the kind who cares much about exercising authority beyond himself. To the contrary, he seemed to regard the turmoil and ritual humiliations— first McCarthy, then Jordan, now Scalise— as a sideshow. In important respects, he is right.
House politics, in both parties, can feel insular and even claustrophobic. That has certainly been on vivid display among Republicans the past couple weeks. The honking insults, the personal rivalries dressed up as matters of principle, the perishable coalitions— they can seem impenetrable and disconnected from the real problems of the wider world.
With a little distance, however, it becomes more clear that the shadow over the House GOP is the same one hovering over the broader Republican Party and the same one clouding all of American politics. There will be no return to regular order, to something that used to be normal, so long as Trump remains the dominant figure in his party and his future is unresolved. Will he be convicted of felonies in 2024 or defeat a politically vulnerable incumbent and return to the presidency? Or perhaps even both?
Until these questions are answered, the most incisive answer to “Who will be the next speaker?” is “Who cares?” The speaker’s race is a fight at the margins, to hold a job that promises scant power or dignity.
Shelby Talcott tried answering the question about why Trump’s rival aren’t dropping out of the presidential primary. Trump’s national lead looks insurmountable:
Trump- 58.6%
DeSantis- 12.9%
Haley- 7.6%
Ramaswampy- 6.2%
Pence- 3.7%
Christie- 2.8%
Scott- 2.0%
Burgum- 0.8%
Hutchinson- 0.4%
In Iowa:
Trump- 50.3%
DeSantis- 17.3%
Haley- 9.5%
Scott- 6.0%
Ramaswampy- 6.0%
Pence- 3.5%
Christie- 2.0%
Burgum- 1.8%
Hutchinson- 0.3%
In New Hampshire:
Trump- 45.0%
Haley- 14.2%
DeSantis- 10.4%
Christie- 9.0%
Ramaswampy- 7.2%
Scott- 4.6%
Burgum- 1.8%
Pence- 1.4%
Hutchinson- 0.8%
Hopeless? Pretty much— unless something changes drastically, like Trump dying. I don’t even think incarceration would keep him from winning the nomination! Talcott wrote that “anti-Trump Republican groups are finding in polls and focus groups that a long list of attacks against the frontrunner just aren’t landing— in some cases, they even increase his support— prompting some to give up… In conversations with candidates, campaign officials, and outside backers, non-Trump Republicans described a few shreds of hope that are keeping them going for now. For one, campaigns still see another phase to the race, one in which a single candidate consolidates support and starts looking like a final rival to Trump and forces voters to pay more attention. Mitt Romney, who has expressed skepticism that Trump can be defeated, urged donors and campaigns at a retreat this week to winnow the field as fast as possible to preserve whatever chance of avoiding a ‘train wreck’ remains.”
There’s also the ever-present hope that Trump will eventually “collapse under his own weight,” as the cliché goes, even as his many indictments, trials, and lawsuits have so far only rallied Republicans to his defense.
“I’m not sure there’s ever been somebody that far in front who’s had as many hurdles in front of them that Donald Trump has,” Pence advisor Marc Short told Semafor after the second Republican debate.
And finally, there’s always room for a little blind faith. Campaigns are holding out for the possibility that some major event changes the race— perhaps one none of them can predict— and they want to be in the best position possible to capitalize should it arrive.
…There are certainly glimmers of hope and some time to go until the Republican primary wraps up. But the campaign’s arguments also represent the last remaining ones that they have to lean on— previous predictions that debates, or improved name recognition, or indictments, or abortion politics, or a post-Labor Day surge of attention, or any of a number of factors, would change the race have all been discredited so far.
Electability arguments, already a questionable approach, have lost much of their punch as Democrats publicly and privately worry about polls showing Trump tied or even leading Biden in a general election. None of the Republican candidates have figured out a magic formula to either break away from the crowded field or drag down Trump’s numbers. And the ones with the most pointed critiques of Trump have often fared the worst overall.
“The overwhelming truth of the Republican Party is that Trump is popular because the Republican Party likes Trump,” Stuart Stevens, a former GOP strategist, told my colleague Dave Weigel. “If you look at Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie, both former clients of mine by the way, what are they going to get in this primary? Ten percent, when it’s all said and done?”
It’s also becoming harder and harder to keep attention on the primary campaign as the contest looks more sewn up and news events like the House speaker’s race and Israel’s response to Hamas overtake coverage. A massive Trump lead can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it causes voters to further tune out the alternatives.
This point of view— that no single campaign has proven they have the ability to become a serious contender against Trump— is beginning to seep into outside Republican groups and strategists who have spent months trying to take down the former president in the primary.
Win It Back PAC president David McIntosh, whose recent memo describing the complete failure of the group’s “traditional” attacks on Trump was widely covered, insisted that their research still showed some potential in messages that touched on “Trump fatigue” and his ability to win a general election— especially unscripted testimonials from ordinary voters.
“The data shows we can and did move the needle,” McIntosh said in a statement.
But another group, the Republican Accountability Project, ran ads featuring rank-and-file conservatives discussing virtually identical themes that were derived from similar polling and focus group research— and eventually decided they were a waste of time.
“We were spending money in Iowa, we had a campaign running, we found lots of two-time Trump voters who were talking about why they didn’t want Trump to be the nominee,” Sarah Longwell, executive director of the Republican Accountability Project, told me. “We pulled out, because I didn’t see any other candidate who not only looked like they could beat Trump, but looked like they were really trying. I don’t see a path, unless someone’s really willing to break out and start running an aggressive campaign against Trump and for themselves.”
Another group that’s been running ads against Trump, AFP Action, did not respond to multiple requests for comment about their current operations and whether they still saw a path to victory.
And therein lies another hurdle for Trump’s opponents to overcome: The reality that even those rooting for them are beginning to think they should save their ammo for the Trump-Biden general election battle— whichever side of it they intend to be on.
…There’s always the hope a white knight will ride to the rescue. Some donors are pitching Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin as a potential savior who could reshuffle the race with a late entry, despite limited name recognition and little polling evidence that Republicans are clamoring for his candidacy.