Toon Is Back With Dutch Politics In Turmoil: Wilders, Coalitions, And An Uncertain Future

Toon Janssen
13 hours ago
3 min read

-by Toon Janssen,

DWT Amsterdam Correspondent

Last June 3, the Dutch government coalition ostensibly led by Prime Minister Dick Schoof collapsed, triggered by the radical right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV). Wilders, often compared to Trump for his blunt, confrontational style, led a party that holds the largest number of seats in the Dutch House of Representatives— 37 out of 150. But despite this, his influence was limited because his coalition partners rejected many of his hardline demands, especially on asylum and immigration.

Frustrated, Wilders issued a sudden Trump-like ultimatum: "For emergency reasons, all borders must be closed immediately to asylum seekers." When the coalition refused, Wilders withdrew his support, effectively pulling the plug on the government experiment known as the "Schoof Cabinet"— a government headed by a non-partisan prime minister but heavily influenced by Wilders behind the scenes. The cabinet lasted only about 100 days before collapsing, earning the nickname “Schover,” a Dutch pun combining "Schoof" and "over," a word which is identical in Dutch and English.

After Wilders and his PVV ministers left, the remaining coalition parties— center-right VVD (“People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy”), the Constitution Loyalists (NSC), and the farmers’ populist BBB— were left in a caretaker government with limited power. Dutch rules prohibit caretaker governments from making major or controversial decisions, so little progress is expected until after new elections in October.

Wilders did not gain much from this episode: despite calling the shots from the sidelines, he was never given the prime ministership by his coalition partners, and he failed to secure a Senate majority. His campaign promises mostly fell flat, lacking both political, constitutional and financial support. He even tried to push through emergency laws to bypass parliamentary checks— similar to Trump’s executive orders— but this was blocked by other political forces.

The Road to October Elections

The Dutch Electoral Council has scheduled new elections for October 29. Until then, the caretaker government made up of VVD, NSC, and BBB will try to handle leftover business, but with limited ability to accomplish anything.

To track shifting political winds, Dutch analysts rely on “Peilwijzer,” a polling average tool combining major surveys to predict election outcomes. According to the most recent July 30 update, here’s what the Dutch political landscape looks like:

Wilders’ PVV, though dropping from 37 seats in 2023 to an estimated 27, remains the largest party.
Hot on PVV’s heels are the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the left-wing GroenLinks-PvdA coalition, each polling around 24 seats. The GroenLinks-PvdA alliance, led by former EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans, has grown steadily and firmly rejects any cooperation with Wilders, calling him “a disgrace to the Dutch parliament.”
The VVD, traditionally the dominant center-right party (like the Republicans or corporate-aligned New Dems in the U.S.), has been steadily losing support— from 34 seats in 2021 down to an estimated 20 now. The VVD leader, Dilan Yesilgoz, faces criticism for her perceived populism and failure to decisively oppose Wilders or effectively counter the left.
The Constitution Loyalists (NSC) have crashed from 20 seats to an estimated 1, partly due to internal issues and the departure of their star politician Pieter Omtzigt, who left politics in April citing mental health reasons. Many former NSC voters have migrated to the rising Christian Democrats.
The BBB, a farmers’ populist party opposing environmental regulations, has also dropped from 7 to about 4 seats. Their denial of climate and nitrogen problems has frustrated necessary sustainability efforts, drawing a significant backlash.

Rising Stars and Shifting Alliances

The Christian Democrats (CDA) have staged an impressive comeback, jumping from just 5 seats in 2023 to an estimated 24 now. Under the leadership of former physicist Henri Bontebal, CDA appeals to voters seeking a respectful, decent society with shared values—positioning themselves as a potential bridge between polarized camps.
Another rising right-wing party, JA21, led by Joost Eerdmans, is expanding from 1 seat to about 7. This party attracts voters disillusioned with Wilders, offering a softer, more balanced populist alternative.

All parties that participated in the short-lived Schoof Cabinet have lost seats in the polls, a reflection of the coalition’s shaky foundation and Wilders’ erratic influence. The political landscape is fragmented, with no clear majority in sight, and Dutch voters crave stability after years of political paralysis.

As the October elections approach, party leaders face tough choices on whether to form new alliances or risk further instability. The dynamic and often volatile Dutch multiparty system means coalition-building is always a delicate, complex process— one that will be closely watched both in the Netherlands, in other EU countries and abroad.