Tomorrow Is Election Day In Canada— Looks Like The Biggest Loser Will Be Señor Trumpanzyy

Every Time Trump Brays About Annexing Canada, The Conservatives Lose Votes

For many people, not allowing their disdain— even hatred— for Trump metastasize into disdain for the U.S. and for Americans is difficult. The world detested the German people in the 1930s and ‘40s. And it wasn’t until half a century after Hitler’s suicide that those feelings were mostly— not even entirely— dissipated! A YouGov poll last month found that 53% of Brits, 56% of Germans, 63% of Swedes and 74% of Danes have an unfavorable opinion of the U.S., the highest since polling began in 2016.

You may have read that travel to and international tourism in the U.S. is way down. That’s costing the American economy— and American companies and American people— billions of dollars. The Department of Commerce estimates that overseas visitors to the U.S. dropped by 11.6% compared to March 2024.

Travel from Canada, our top source of international visitors, plummeted significantly— and we’ll come back to a fuller discussion of Canada in a moment. But air arrivals from Canada fell by 13.5% in March 2025 compared to March 2024. Canadians driving back from the U.S. saw a 23% decline in February 2025, with some border crossings reporting up to 45% fewer crossings on certain days. Airline bookings from Canada to the U.S. dropped by 70% compared to the same period in 2024, per OAG, a global air traffic data provider. Tourism Economics forecasts a 20% decline in Canadian visitors for 2025, potentially leading to 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses. A Narrative Research poll in Canada showed 33% of Canadians plan to travel less to the U.S..

Similarly, air arrivals from Mexico decreased by 17% in March 2025 compared to March 2024. Visitors from Western Europe fell by 17% in March 2025, with specific countries like Germany and the UK seeing declines of up to 29%. Travel from all regions are down, although maybe not from Russia and Hungary. Some people say they don't even want to breath the same air that Trump breaths!

Tourism Economics projects a 9.4% decline in international arrivals for 2025, a sharp reversal from their earlier forecast of 9% growth. This could result in a $9 billion loss in tourism revenue for the year. Combined with reduced travel and potential boycotts, some estimates suggest losses could reach $64 billion for the U.S. travel industry in 2025, with Goldman Sachs projecting up to $90 billion when including export revenue impacts. Losses— between $64 billion and $90 billion have experts like Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, noting that the damage may take years to reverse.

Yesterday Adam Gabbatt reported that this was the year, after the steep declines caused by the pandemic, that international tourism in the U.S. would come back to normal and help the industry boom. Forget that. Thanks to Señor Trumpanzyy, expectations have gone from a 9% increase to a 12% decrease. Sacks predicted $10 billion in losses relative to last year. “It comes down to the basic principle that we’ve seen over decades, which is that travelers can go wherever they want, whenever they want. So antipathy towards a destination will have noticeable effects. It’s highly elastic to those sorts of external factors, and then you add to that the high-profile detainments which got a lot of press, particularly in Europe.” The greatest economic damage is expected in Florida, followed by Texas, California and New York.

As I promised, let’s come back to Canada, whose national elections are tomorrow. Short version: the Conservative Party had the election in the bag— until Trump started shooting off his mouth. It now looks like the Liberal Party is on the verge of winning. Can it really be because of Trump-hatred? Keep in mind that polling shows that 75% of Canadians have a negative view of Trump.

Yesterday, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan reported that, according to a Politico/Focaldata poll, the Conservative Party appears likely to pay a painful price for Canadians’ dislike of Trump. “About two in five voters (39 percent) told Focaldata, a U.K. pollster, that Trump was a top concern in the election, second only to cost of living (60 percent). Since Trump’s return to the White House— and Justin Trudeau’s exit as Canada’s prime minister— the Conservative Party led by populist Pierre Poilievre has watched a 25-point polling lead disintegrate in front of its eyes. Conservatives now trail in most surveys.”

Canada’s election has transformed into a test of Trump’s political influence beyond the United States. In a backlash against his threats and trade war, about half of Canadians now consider the U.S. as a hostile power, a dramatic turn among moderate and Liberal-leading Canadians.

In a Time magazine interview published Friday, Trump again reiterated his desire to annex Canada: “The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”

Focaldata, which surveyed 2,826 respondents online from April 18 to 23, measured Trump’s net favorability at minus 61 among Canadians, “a deeply negative standing” that the pollster suggests could sway the outcome against the Conservatives.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney has campaigned on the proposition that his experience at the helm of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England makes him best qualified to defend Canada. The poll suggests voters agree that he, not Poilievre, is better suited to managing the nation’s relationship with Trump and the United States.

“President Trump and I … we share some experiences,” the newbie politician said after being sworn in as prime minister last month. “I have been in the private sector. I have worked in the real estate sector. I have done large transactions. I have worked with him during his first presidency at the G20, at the G7.”

…Focaldata gives the Liberals the edge in this final weekend of a 37-day campaign.

The firm found 40.5 percent support nationwide for Carney’s Liberals. Poilievre’s Conservatives trail at 37.5 percent.

Liberals hold a 9-point lead in all-important Ontario — 46 percent to 37. Carney’s party also leads in Quebec (38 percent), ahead of the Bloc Québécois (28 percent) and Conservatives (22 percent). Conservatives lead in every province west of Ontario, including by 8 points— 42 percent to 34 percent— in British Columbia.

…Nearly half of voters, 45 percent, said Trump’s actions have influenced their vote choice “moderately” or “a great deal,” with a strong partisan gap.

Liberal voters were far likelier than Conservatives to consider Trump as they picked their party: 53 percent of Liberal voters said Trump’s actions have significantly influenced their vote, while only one in four Conservative voters said the same.

The divide extends more broadly to views of the United States. Nearly two-thirds of Liberals (64 percent) say the U.S. is either “enemy or hostile” or “generally unfriendly, but not an enemy.” A mere 19 percent see the US as an ally or generally friendly.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of Conservatives say the U.S. is an ally or generally friendly, with 34 percent saying the opposite.

About half of Canadians, 49 percent, now view the U.S. as “unfriendly” or “an enemy”— an overall view that is now less favorable even than China, where a yearslong diplomatic freeze has chilled relations.